2-Point Conversion: Bucs, Bowles Finally Solve The Rams

It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column, which features two big statements, two probing questions and two predictions. The Bucs got a much-needed win against the visiting Rams, 16-13, to snap a three-game losing skid. Tampa Bay’s defense was masterful outside of a big, 69-yard Cooper Kupp touchdown, but the Bucs offense was putrid for most of the game – outside of the final drive. Tom Brady hit rookie tight end Cade Otton for a 1-yard game-winning touchdown with nine seconds left to lift the Bucs to 4-5 on the year.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1: Bowles, Bucs Finally Solve McVay’s Rams

Tom Brady did it again. The 45-year old Bucs quarterback led his 55th game-winning drive, which is the most in the NFL, surpassing Peyton Manning (54).

Brady’s 1-yard touchdown with nine seconds left led a comeback that stunned the Rams, 16-13, and helped the Bucs snap a three-game losing streak and improve to 4-5 on the season.

But the story of Sunday’s come-from-behind victory was Todd Bowles’ defense, which finally solved the Rams offense. Tampa Bay snapped a three-game losing streak to Los Angeles dating back to the 2020 season, but more importantly stopped a three-game losing streak this season.

Granted, the Rams offense is a shell of its former self. Los Angeles came into the game averaging just 16.9 points per game and was held to just 13 points.

The Rams’ offensive line is in shambles due to injuries, free agent departures and left tackle Andrew Whitworth’s retirement. L.A. can’t run the ball, and all Matthew Stafford is still dealing with is an arm injury that affects his accuracy and ability to drive the football down the field.

Without Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr. all Stafford has in terms of weapons is All-Pro receiver Cooper Kupp, who was playing with a sprained ankle. Of course Kupp still went off – catching a 69-yard touchdown thanks to a busted coverage between safety Keanu Neal, who was playing underneath zone, and free safety Mike Edwards, who was late coming over in coverage.

Take away that 69-yard touchdown and Kupp was held to a very manageable seven catches for 58 yards (8.2 avg.) by Tampa Bay’s defense. Kupp finished with eight catches for 127 yards and three carries for minus-1 yard.

Where Bowles and his defense excelled in game-planning was to take away the Rams – admittedly bad – running game, which was held to 68 yards on 24 carries (2.8 avg.) and stop the horizontal offensive attack. Head coach Sean McVay likes to spread defenses out and attack the flanks with end arounds by Kupp, which went nowhere against Tampa Bay, and quick perimeter screens to receivers and tight ends.

Bowles had his perimeter defenders ready for this type of attack. They fought off screens, shut down the sidelines – which they didn’t do against Baltimore last week – and stifled the Rams’ quick passing game.

The return of cornerback Carlton Davis III was huge, and his perimeter tackling was absolutely clutch. Davis finished with six tackles, which was second on the team, and he might have been the best defender on the field Sunday afternoon. Neal was also sound in his tackling and finished with a team-high 10 stops. Sean Murphy-Bunting was also extremely effective on the perimeter and in the slot and finished with five tackles.

“For the most part I was happy with the YAC (yards after catch) yards,” Bowles said. “They didn’t catch and run for a bunch of yards, minus that play, which was big because they’re a big catch-and-run team and they’re a big jet sweep team. I thought they did a heck of a job between Murphy-Bunting, Carlton and [Jamel] Dean, and Mike and Keanu – they did a heck of a job of containing the receivers when they were running the football. We thought that was big going into the game.”

Bowles also knew that the Bucs had to get pressure on Stafford, and often with just four rushers. Defensive tackle Vita Vea stepped up big without Shaq Barrett, notching a career-high two sacks, giving him a team-leading 6.5 sacks this year. Vea’s previous career best was four sacks last year during his first Pro Bowl season.

Bucs DT Vita Vea – Photo by: USA Today

With the help of Akiem Hicks and other defensive tackes drawing double teams, Bowles isolated Vea on left guard Bobby Evans, who has really struggled this season in pass protection. Vea got by Evans twice and even Rakeem Nunez-Roches got his first career sack, which came at Evans’ expense.

It was a great game plan by Bowles – and nearly flawless execution outside of Kupp’s 69-yard touchdown. To hold the Rams to 13 points, 206 total yards and force eight three-and-outs out of 14 possessions was remarkable.

L.A. didn’t gain a single first down in the fourth quarter as Bowles’ unit held the Rams to just four yards on 10 plays.

Four yards. Ten plays. In four possessions in the fourth quarter.

That is great defense – even against a sub-par Rams offense right now.

The Bucs defense got the ball back for the offense three times in the fourth quarter to allow Tampa Bay to put the final 10 points on the scoreboard, including the go-ahead touchdown from Tom Brady to Cade Otton with nine seconds left.

Fans aren’t happy with the Bucs’ 4-5 record (no one at the AdventHealth Training Center is), but Bowles has beaten both the Saints and the Rams this year. It hasn’t looked pretty, but he’s done something that hasn’t been done in Tampa Bay for quite some time – snapping a seven-game regular season losing streak to New Orleans and finally beating Los Angeles by solving McVay’s attack.

“Well, the satisfaction is in the win,” Bowles said. “You don’t get satisfaction unless you make the playoffs and go to the Super Bowl. But for a regular season win, to beat someone you haven’t beaten in a while – it’s a nod, it’s not a great satisfaction. You know, we just lost three in a row, so this one obviously cures today and we have to get ready tomorrow, have the 24-hour rule and move on to Seattle.”

Bowles and these Bucs aren’t finished just yet.

STATEMENT 2: Licht’s Fourth-Rounders Coming Up Clutch For Bucs

Bucs QB Tom Brady and TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

Bucs general manager Jason Licht has done a remarkable job of building a Super Bowl-winning roster over the years. Several key pieces of the roster have come from the NFL Draft, where Licht and his staff have exceled at procuring talent. General managers have to nail first- and second-round picks to be successful, but elite GMs have a knack for finding Day 3 talent, and that’s where Licht and his scouts have nailed some key picks.

Look no further than Sunday’s 16-13 win over the Rams where a pair of fourth-round picks from this year’s draft – tight end Cade Otton and punter Jake Camarda – came up huge. Otton was a star in the fourth quarter, catching all four passes for 58 yards in the final 15 minutes, including the game-winning 1-yard touchdown. The rookie tight end led the Bucs with six catches for a career-high 68 yards against the Rams.

Camarda should be the NFC Special Teams Player of the Week for a masterful job of punting. He punted six times for 357 yards, averaging 59.5 yards with a sensational 54.2-yard average. Four of his punts were downed inside the 20-yard line, and his lone punt that was a touchback was literally an inch from being downed near the 1-yard line. Camarda also chipped in two special teams tackles, including a big one on a 29-yard kickoff return.

Camarda, who got a game ball on Sunday, is a starter at three positions – punter, holder and kickoff specialist. The fact that he’s playing so well as a rookie makes the fact that he’s a fourth-round pick even better and more valuable.

Otton should be the starting tight end – even when veteran Cam Brate returns from his neck injury. Tom Brady and Otton are developing a real chemistry and his 28-yard catch-and-run was the lone play over 20 yards against the Rams. The Bucs need to see more of Otton now and in the future and less of Brate – because Otton is the future for the team at tight end.

Otton and Camarda sure look like incredible Day 3 selections by the Bucs.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: Why Didn’t Bowles Challenge The Spot On Camarda’s Punt?

I addressed this in the Bucs Monday Mailbag, and it’s worth repeating here because this is such a big question on the minds of Tampa Bay fans.

Bucs P Jake Camarda – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

As for the failed challenge on Jake Camarda’s punt that looked like it hit inside the 1-yard line and bounced back inside the 5-yard line, I’ve got some scoop. Referee Shawn Hochuli was told by the league office in his earpiece that the NFL headquarters got a look at that play and it was not going to be overturned because there was no conclusive video evidence. It was close, but Bowles wasn’t going to win that challenge. Bowles had the red flag out, but Hochuli warned him that he wasn’t going to win the replay challenge.

The league headquarters will do that from time to time with referees telling head coaches not to challenge some calls, and as it turns out from the TV replays, there may not have been enough video evidence to overturn the call on the field, which was a touchback. The reason why the league office will help coaches with these challenges is to keep the game moving. The NFL is obsessed with getting games over in three hours due to TV contracts with networks. CBS wants to get to its 60 Minutes show after the game and not screw up it’s primetime programming on Sunday night with a delay.

Instant replay challenges can take anywhere from three to five minutes. The Bucs’ win over the Rams took three hours and three minutes to finish. Hochuli actually did the Bucs a huge favor. By tipping Bowles off not to challenge the punt, the Bucs didn’t lose that challenge and lose a timeout as a result. Tampa Bay needed that final precious timeout on the defense’s final stop to get the ball back to the offense with 44 seconds left.

QUESTION 2: What’s Happened To Godwin?

It’s hard to believe that Chris Godwin has played half a season of football and hasn’t found the end zone yet. Godwin had five catches on seven targets on Sunday and produced just 36 receiving yards. That’s a paltry 5.1 yards per catch.

On the year, Godwin has 42 catches for 404 yards while averaging just 9.6 yards per catch. Godwin’s career average is 13.1 yards per catch and outside of this season and his rookie year, Godwin has averaged seven touchdowns per season from 2018-2021.

Godwin is on pace to catch 79 passes for 763 yards this season. That’s a far cry from recent seasons where Godwin has topped 1,000 yards (2019 and 2021). Even in an injury-shortened season in 2020 when Godwin only played in 12 games he still had 840 yards and seven touchdowns on 65 catches (12.9 avg.).

Out of 42 catches this year, Godwin has just four catches of 20 yards with a long of 44 yards, which came against Baltimore. He only has two games with 70 yards receiving or more – the best o which was a six-catch, 95-yard effort at Pittsburgh.

The reality is that while Godwin is healthy enough to take the field, he’s not all the way back from his torn ACL injury last December. It will likely take him a full year to regain his Pro Bowl form – if he can. The guess here is that Godwin will return to being one of the game’s better receivers in 2023.

If not, Godwin will wind up being a $20 million mistake for Tampa Bay.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Bucs Will Win The NFC South

Bucs DT Vita Vea and Rams QB Matthew Stafford – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

On a day when Tampa Bay got a needed must-win, Atlanta lost at home to the L.A. Chargers and fell to 4-5, which is the current Bucs’ record. The Bucs are now atop the NFC South once again and if they can get a win against the Seahawks in Germany they will be back to .500 in time for a much-needed bye week.

The Bucs could use some help from the Ravens in beating the 3-5 Saints. The Bengals destroyed the Panthers, 42-21, and Carolina slipped to 2-7 on the season. Like the Bucs, the Panthers have a 2-1 record in the division, while the Falcons and Saints are both 1-2 on the year. Tampa Bay has already beaten New Orleans and Atlanta, which helps.

PREDICTION 2: Vea Gets 10 Sacks

Bucs defensive tackle Vita Vea could do something this year that no other defensive tackle has done since Warren Sapp did it in 2000. That’s reach 10 sacks in a season. Vea, who recorded a career-high two QB captures of Matthew Stafford, now has 6.5 sacks to lead the Bucs this year.

Sapp is the last defensive tackle to reach double digits, doing so with 16.5 sacks in 2000. Gerald McCoy came close in 2013 with 9.5 sacks. Vea needs just 3.5 more sacks this season over the remaining eight games to reach 10.

The Bucs are using Vea differently this year, playing him more in the B gap as a three-technique defensive tackle. That is getting isolated one-on-one with a guard more often and the former first-round pick is taking advantage of this new alignment in Tampa Bay’s under front.