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AFC Divisional Round: Chiefs-Jaguars best bets

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By: Zach_Gunter

Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images

How should you bet on Jacksonville against Kansas City in the second round of the playoffs?

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday. How should you bet on this game?

Chiefs game lines

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Jaguars 8.5 Over 53 370
Chiefs -8.5 Under 53 -460

It’s win or go home, so this is the most vital game of the season. The Chiefs need to take advantage of a team that is not only on a hot streak, but is also very, very full of itself.

Yes… I’m looking at you, Trevor Lawrence.

Kansas City needs to take advantage of one minor factor: the weather. Saturday’s high is expected to be near 37 — with a good chance of light rain and snow. This bodes well for the Chiefs, because the Jaguars are not as acclimated to cold weather. Still, this is a minor factor; precipitation is not expected to be heavy.

Kansas City will need to watch out for Jacksonville’s running game. Though the Chiefs slowed him down quite a bit in Week 10, Travis Etienne Jr. is an absolute beast. He has hit over 100 yards in six games — and over 150 in another. Three of his six 100-yard games have come in the last five matchups — including last week’s comeback win against the Los Angeles Chargers. In those five games, Etienne has averaged 84 yards and 5.5 yards per carry. He is terrifying — and given a few more seasons, he may become the NFL’s best back.

Depending on how bad the weather gets, running backs could see more carries than usual. So that suggests picking the Under for this game; more carries generally mean a lower-scoring game. But if the forecast changes, take the Over. Both teams have high-powered offenses.

With regard to the spread, I’m not really confident either way. While the Chiefs beat the Jaguars by 10 the last time, this is now a different, more energized team. That makes me uncomfortable. Still, there is the weather factor. Jacksonville’s player are simply not used to playing in cold weather. Their top players both played at Clemson — in South Carolina! So I’m takomg the Chiefs to cover.

Chiefs (-8.5), Under 53, Chiefs Moneyline

Prop Bets

Travis Kelce Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)

With six 100+ receiving games under his belt, I feel that picking the Over on 79.5 is a rather easy decision. Even in Kansas City’s last meeting with Jacksonville, Kelce had 81 receiving yards. And there’s incentive for Kelce to reach the Over, too: he is 99 yards away from becoming the tight end with the most postseason yardage.

Travis Etienne Jr. Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)

Though the Chiefs held Etienne to 45 yards in their Week 10 meeting, he has grown a lot over the last nine weeks. See above — and take the Over.

Isiah Pacheco Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)

If there is any one of these props to cut out of a parlay, it’s this one. I have it in here because I believe that head coach Andy Reid will use Pacheco a lot more in the postseason. It is completely a gut feeling.

Patrick Mahomes Over 315.5 Passing Yards (DraftKings)

This is the complete opposite of gut feeling. Do not mess with Playoff Mahomes. In the last playoff season, Mahomes had a 118.8 passer rating with 1,057 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. In three games. That’s an average of 352.3 passing yards per game. Take the Over.

Trevor Lawrence Over 249.5 Passing Yards (DraftKings)

Lawrence is new to this postseason thing — but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t made his mark. Sure, he threw four interceptions in the first half of the Wild Card matchup against the Chargers — but in the second half, he threw for 211 yards and three touchdowns. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that if he throws more than 77 yards in the first half, he’ll throw for more than 250 in the game.

All in all, this game will be a fun one; both teams have elite talent. And you can’t write off any team that makes it to the Divisional Round. The Jaguars are legit. This won’t be a cakewalk.

As always… bet responsibly.

Originally posted on Arrowhead Pride