Bucs Monday Mailbag: Has Bowles Lost The Team?

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Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds answers your questions from the @PewterReport Twitter account each week in the Bucs Monday Mailbag. Submit your question to the Bucs Monday Mailbag each week via Twitter using the hashtag #PRMailbag.  Here are the questions we chose to answer for this week’s edition.

QUESTION: Has Todd Bowles lost this Bucs team? Why aren’t the players responding?

ANSWER: No, Todd Bowles has absolutely not lost the team – at least not yet. Bowles has three years worth of trust, relationships and capital built up within the walls of the AdventHealth Training Center with the players, front office and Bucs ownership. Remember, Bowles helped the Bucs win a Super Bowl in 2020 and did a great job coaching and putting together a patchwork secondary due to a rash of injuries as Tampa Bay went 13-4 last year. A disappointing 5-6 start this season isn’t going to erase all of that.

The players have responded to Bowles to a degree. They’re still playing hard for the most part, but there have been some games where their effort has been in question. Otherwise, it’s just mistakes by the players, a lack of execution or poor play-calling that have doomed the Bucs. The players have to be held accountable too and take ownership in the six losses – so far. It’s not all on Bowles.

Of course, last week in Cleveland, Bowles didn’t do himself any favors with the team by not using the first of three timeouts until there were eight seconds left in regulation after Tom Brady hit Julio Jones for a 26-yard gain down to the Cleveland 48. By that time, 17 precious seconds had run off and the Bucs were destined for overtime. That was poor clock management on Bowles’ part. That might knock him down a peg in the eyes of the players, but it’s certainly not fatal. Not yet.

I think trust in Bowles might erode if this team can’t get into the playoffs by season’s end. And that means failing to repeat as NFC South champions. If the Bucs finish with a losing record and don’t make the postseason – especially with Brady at the helm – that’s not going to reflect well on Bowles at all in the minds of the fans or the organization. Bowles has six games left to win the division, starting on Monday Night Football against the Saints. The Falcons are now 5-8 after a loss to the Steelers on Sunday, and a Bucs win would create some distance between Tampa Bay and Atlanta – and of course New Orleans. We’ll see what happens.

QUESTION: Should Todd Bowles be on the hot seat?

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANSWER: No, not yet. Let’s see how this season plays out first. Whether some fans like it or not, Todd Bowles isn’t getting fired this season. He’s going to finish out the 2022 campaign, and if his team makes the playoffs, he certainly won’t be on the hot seat in 2023. But if Tampa Bay doesn’t win the NFC South and misses the postseason, there is a good chance Bowles will be on the hot seat entering the 2023 season.

The Glazers have given every coach they’ve hired two seasons to win and move the team in the right direction. Tony Dungy had four winning seasons and a division title in 1999 in his six seasons in Tampa Bay. Jon Gruden won three division titles and a Super Bowl in his seven years with the Bucs. Raheem Morris got three years. Greg Schiano and Lovie Smith each got two seasons. Dirk Koetter got three years. I think the bottom has to fall out – meaning going 0-6 down the stretch – for the Glazers to consider making a chance at head coach after just one season with Bowles.

Unless the Glazers have a clear upgrade in mind. That’s the only way they would fire Bowles after one season. Sean Payton would be such an upgrade, but the Saints still own his rights and would not trade him within the division.

QUESTION: If the Bucs are one and done in the playoffs, or don’t make it in, do the Glazers step in and make any coaching changes?

ANSWER: As I stated above, Todd Bowles will almost assuredly get the 2023 season to win more games and show improvement. While he inherited a talented roster – one with Tom Brady at quarterback for another year – and a coaching staff he was familiar with, it’s not a coaching staff he assembled. Bowles is coaching with Bruce Arians’ staff – not his own. That has to be factored into the Glazers’ equation when determining Bowles’ future.

There will undoubtedly be changes to the coaching staff in the offseason. I think it’s a safe bet that there will be a new offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay next year among other changes – unless the offense starts lighting up the scoreboard. Bowles’ defense ranks sixth in the league in scoring defense, surrendering 18.5 points per game. But the Bucs offense ranks 27th in the NFL, scoring an average of just 18.2 points per game. That’s simply not good enough.

QUESTION: With all the blame seemingly being placed on the coaches, the lack of energy couldn’t possibly be from losing all the high-energy guys from the locker room, could it? Ali Marpet and Rob Gronkowski retired. Ryan Jensen got hurt and isn’t playing. Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh and Jordan Whitehead moved on. Does losing talent matter or not?

Bucs DT Ndamukong Suh and OLB Jason Pierre-Paul – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANSWER: This is a great question – and a great point. The Bucs went 11-5 and won the Super Bowl in 2020, and then nearly the entire roster was brought back in 2021 to help the team go 13-4. But that wasn’t the case this year. There has been a lot of roster turnover.

As you pointed out, Ali Marpet, Rob Gronkowski, Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh and Jordan Whitehead are gone. Along with Alex Cappa and Antonio Brown, that makes seven starters out of the starting 22 that are gone. Add in Ryan Jensen’s season-ending injury and that makes it eight out of 22 starters missing this year. That’s over one-third of last year’s starters whoaren’t suiting up in red and pewter.

Marpet was a team captain. Jensen is the leader of the offensive line. Gronkowski’s infectious, upbeat personality kept the mood in the locker room and at practice light. Pierre-Paul brought energy. Suh brought accountability. Whitehead brought toughness. It’s hard to replace all of that – plus their talent – in one offseason, and the culture in Tampa Bay isn’t as strong this year as a result.

The Bucs have a new captain this year in defensive tackle Vita Vea, and outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett was also asked to step up in a leadership role with JPP’s departure. But Vea and Barrett are not as outspoken as Suh and Pierre-Paul were. Players typically don’t become leaders overnight. It can take some time and that appears to be the case in Tampa Bay with those two.

Pro Bowl inside linebacker Devin White is a high-energy leader on defense, but even he admits that his energy waned a bit in a three-game losing streak that spanned the Pittsburgh, Carolina and Baltimore games. White’s level of play has increased over the last couple of games, which is good, but he can’t be the only fire-starter on defense – or the entire team itself – in Tampa Bay.

QUESTION: Is there a reason our offensive play-calling is not creative? If I can predict the offensive play call, the opposing defensive coordinator probably can too, right?

ANSWER: The fact that Pewter Report fans (who are some of the smartest Bucs fans around) or even the average fan can predict what play is coming from their couch is not good. I too have a pretty decent track record of guessing what play Byron Leftwich has dialed up due to down and distance and formation. And of course if that’s the case, NFL defensive coordinators and NFL middle linebackers have an even better idea due to their experience and film study.

Predictability has become a problem with the Bucs offense and played a huge role in Tampa Bay averaging just 18.2 points per game, which ranks 27th in the league. It also has something to do with the Bucs ranking 23rd in third down conversions at just 37.97%. Last year, Tampa Bay ranked fourth in the NFL at 44.8%. That decline falls on offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, who is certainly not the most creative play-caller in the league.

To fully answer your question, the reason why Leftwich is not as creative as we would like to see is that he’s mostly come up in Bruce Arians’ offense in his time in the league. With the exception to 2009, which he spent as a quarterback in Tampa Bay, Leftwich was a backup quarterback in Pittsburgh in Arians scheme in 2008, and then again from 2010-12. Then, he joined Arians’ coaching staff in 2016 and was the Cardinals’ quarterbacks coach from 2017-18 before calling plays in ’18. When Leftwich came to Tampa Bay as Arians became the head coach, he was named the Bucs’ play-caller.

For a decade and a half, Leftwich has lived and breathed the Arians offense and hasn’t been exposed to any other system. I think it’s given him some tunnel vision on one playbook, and that playbook has been around the NFL for decades now and has become familiar within the league – perhaps too familiar. When Leftwich had weapons like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski in 2020 and 2021, it didn’t matter if opponents knew what play was coming. They had to try to stop four premier weapons at once, and most teams didn’t have enough talent in their secondary to handle all four.

Pair that with a quarterback in Tom Brady, who excels at finding the open receiver, and the Bucs lit up the scoreboard. Now without Gronkowski and Brown, teams are finding ways to double or bracket Evans and Godwin, and the Bucs just haven’t had enough good, reliable options in the passing game outside of those two to make teams pay for taking away Evans and/or Godwin. That has forced Leftwich to try to get creative, and he just hasn’t been creative enough.

QUESTION: Did Cade Otton do something behind the scenes to take him out of the lineup? Tom Brady works better when he has a tight end that can catch and block for him. Otton is that guy.

Bucs OC Byron Leftwich – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANSWER: One of the most disappointing things about Sunday’s loss at Cleveland was the fact that Cade Otton wasn’t targeted at all despite playing one more snap (36) than Cam Brate (35) did. Brate, an aging veteran, had five targets and caught just two passes for 19 yards. I asked Byron Leftwich about it this week and the Bucs’ play-caller said: “It’s just football. His number was called and sometimes the ball just didn’t get his way. That’s football.”

That’s a poor answer, and a shame because Otton leads Bucs tight ends in catches with 26 for 281 yards (10.8 avg.) and one touchdown. He also has three catches of 20 yards or more this year and caught the game-winning score against the Rams. Brate has dealt with a concussion and a neck injury and has been limited to 16 catches for 137 yards (8.6 avg.) and no touchdowns. And Brate doesn’t have any catches of 20 yards or more this season.

It’s clear that Otton is the better receiving option for the Bucs right now. He’s younger, faster, more dynamic and certainly has more upside than the 31-year old Brate does. Leftwich needs to prioritize getting Otton touches in the game plan and failed to do that in Cleveland. For Brate to have five targets and Otton to have none in Cleveland is inexcusable.