Chargers’ reasons for optimism vs. Broncos

The Chargers wrap up their regular season on Sunday with a divisional matchup against the Broncos with potentially nothing but pride on the line. If Baltimore loses by the time L.A. kicks off, the Bolts will be locked into the fifth seed.

Here are four reasons to be optimistic, regardless of the seeding outcome, that the Chargers come away victorious on Sunday.

Injuries piling up

After placing running back Marlon Mack and guard Dalton Risner on injured reserve earlier this week, the Broncos moved into a tie for the league lead in number of players on IR with 23. Only the Titans have as many. For Denver, that number includes four different running backs, including Mack and the dynamic Javonte Williams, top receivers Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler, rookie tight end Greg Dulcich, five offensive linemen, defensive tackle Dre’Mont Jones and four pass rushers. This is a broken team beyond the disaster that was the Nathaniel Hackett tenure. Meanwhile, LA has 15 players on injured reserve, tied for fourth in the league, but their most significant contributors are beginning to return. Their biggest losses are tackle Rashawn Slater, the stable of defensive tackles, and cornerback JC Jackson, but players like Joey Bosa, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams have all made their returns felt as LA has embarked on this four-game win streak.

Defensive regression

After allowing less than 20 points in nine of their first twelve games, the Broncos have fallen apart on defense down the stretch, allowing 137 points in their last four. They do not have a sack in their last two games. Opposing running backs have fifteen total touchdowns against them. This stacks up well, should the Chargers be forced into playing their starters. Austin Ekeler is the league leader in touchdowns with 18, and Justin Herbert, with a clean pocket to operate from, should open up the passing game. Denver allowed 51 points to a Rams team the Chargers just dismantled 31-10 last week, which bodes well for their route to success against the Broncos on Sunday.

Winless season

Denver has not won a divisional game all season, and a loss on Sunday would extend their divisional losing streak to double digits. The Broncos haven’t gone winless in their division since 1970. Now, their last victory did come against the Chargers last season when Patrick Surtain II took an interception back for a touchdown. But since then, Denver hasn’t found a way to beat any AFC West opponent, including the last two games against LA. The closest they’ve come is the Chargers game earlier this season, which ended 19-16 in overtime, and last week against the Chiefs in a 27-24 ballgame. With the way the Chargers have played in recent weeks, especially the offensive identity they began to cultivate against the Rams, there’s little reason to believe they can’t get the job done on Sunday.

The Russell Wilson phenomenon

It’s been a fascinating season to watch from Wilson if you’re not a Broncos fan and an excruciating one if you are. Wilson is seven touchdowns behind his previous season-low of 20 passing touchdowns coming into Sunday’s game. Injuries ranging from a shoulder issue to a partially torn hamstring to a concussion have hampered his effectiveness. Even before that, though, Wilson has struggled, logging the sixth-worst individual DVOA of any passer with at least 200 attempts. The players in his tier have all been benched at one point or another: Zach Wilson, Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, etc. Denver hasn’t benched Wilson because they can’t, really. They’re paying him too much money to do that, and backup Brett Rypien hasn’t been much better. So the Chargers will get Wilson on Sunday, for better or for worse. This season suggests that’s probably for the worse.