How NY Jets can avoid becoming Mitchell Trubisky’s first victim

The New York Jets must avoid the embarrassment of letting Mitchell Trubisky cook them. Here’s how they can dodge that fate.

Mitchell Trubisky’s tenure with the Pittsburgh Steelers is off to a rough start. Through three games, Trubisky is ranked last out of 32 qualified quarterbacks with an average of 5.5 yards per pass attempt. He is also 31st with a touchdown pass rate of 1.94%, throwing only two touchdowns across 103 attempts.

Luckily for Trubisky, he is about to face an exploitable defense that could allow him to break out: the New York Jets.

The Jets have made opposing quarterbacks look very good this year. They are allowing the seventh-most yards per pass attempt (7.7), the second-highest touchdown pass rate (7.53%), and the fourth-highest passer rating (105.9).

Trubisky has been dismal in all three of his starts as a Steeler. He has yet to exceed 207 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, an 81 passer rating, or 6.5 yards per attempt in a game. The Pittsburgh offense is equally consistent at being unproductive, as it has scored no more than 17 points in a game.

This is an opportunity for New York to right the ship just as much as it is for Trubisky. The Steelers and their quarterback have shown no signs of life. It would be embarrassing to let them have their first quality performance of the season.

If the Jets defense gets shredded by this quarterback and this offense, it will be rock bottom for Jeff Ulbrich‘s disappointing defense. (Until they find another, rockier bottom underneath, to quote BoJack Horseman.)

Here is what the Jets defense must do if they want to avoid the dreaded distinction of becoming the first team to let Trubisky play well in 2022.

Do not blitz him (to start out)

To start the game, there is no reason for the Jets to sacrifice reinforcements in coverage for the sake of blitzing Trubisky. He is having a very hard time making plays when he isn’t blitzed.

When facing four rushers or fewer, Trubisky is ranked last among qualified QBs in yards per attempt (5.2) and passing EPA per dropback (-0.35). This is despite the fact Trubisky has taken the fifth-lowest pressure rate on non-blitzed plays at 15.5%.

What this tells us is that, as a defense, you don’t need to get overaggressive to beat Trubisky. If you let him sit back there, he’ll beat himself – even if you don’t create much pressure. Trubisky isn’t showing the necessary accuracy and decision-making to succeed against seven-plus defenders in coverage.

Where defenses have run into some trouble against Trubisky is when they do try and get aggressive with blitzing him, lessening the number of coverage defenders he has to work against.

Trubisky has been far more competent when blitzed. Against five rushers or more, Trubisky is ranked 20th among qualified QBs in yards per attempt (6.8) and 13th in passing EPA per dropback (+0.11).

New York should plan to rely on its four-man rush to start out. Make Trubisky prove he can execute without the blitz opening up windows for him.

But here’s the catch: They must be ready to adjust if this plan doesn’t work.

Quickly switch things up if the four-man strategy isn’t working

I suggested a similar plan for the Jets in Week 2 when they were preparing to face Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Like Trubisky, Brissett’s splits dictated it was better to avoid blitzing him.

That’s exactly what the Jets ended up doing. They did not blitz often and preferred to rely on their four-man rush.

However, as the game went on, things did not transpire as expected.

The Jets’ four-man rush struggled mightily to create pressure, and Brissett took full advantage of those clean pockets. His accuracy was shockingly excellent as he rarely (if ever) misfired on a throw. He did not beat himself like he did against Carolina the week prior.

At some point, the Jets should have realized their gameplan was not working and made the adjustment to start blitzing Brissett more often. The four-man rush was not winning and Brissett was red-hot. It was time to acknowledge these things and make a correspondent change.

They never did. The Jets kept trying to win with four rushers to no avail as Brissett stood around in the pocket and torched them all afternoon.

Ulbrich needs to be ready to switch things up against Trubisky if the initial gameplan doesn’t work out. Any quarterback can get hot unexpectedly, as Brissett did in Week 2. If Trubisky gets hot and the four-man rush isn’t making his life difficult, you have to start bringing the heat. You cannot just sit back and continue getting cooked while praying things will get better.

Keep him in the pocket

Another essential key to stopping Trubisky is containing him in the pocket. He’s a great athlete who is doing a nice job of making things happen when getting outside. When contained, though, he is doing absolutely nothing.

Trubisky currently leads the NFL with 239 passing yards on throws from outside of the pocket. This is largely because he has attempted a league-high 27 of these passes, but he has been efficient, too. Trubisky is 10th in passer rating (97.6), fourth in yards per attempt (8.9), and sixth in EPA per play (+0.04) when throwing from outside of the pocket.

When throwing from inside of the pocket, Trubisky is last in all three of passer rating (71.5), yards per attempt (4.4), and EPA per play (-0.37).

This key directly coincides with our first key: keeping blitzes to a minimum. It’s on blitzed plays where Trubisky is doing most of his mobile damage. When he isn’t blitzed, Trubisky is not doing nearly as much damage on the move.

On outside-the-pocket throws against five rushers or more, Trubisky is 7-of-9 for 123 yards with 11.8 Y/A, a 118.8 passer rating, and +0.81 EPA/play. On outside-the-pocket throws against four rushers or fewer, Trubisky is 12-of-18 for 116 yards with 6.7 Y/A, an 84.5 passer rating, and -0.28 EPA/play.

Blitzes seem to be opening the door for Trubisky to find escape lanes and deliver throws on the move to receivers in one-on-one coverage. When Trubisky escapes against four or three-man rushes, he isn’t apt at making things happen due to the increased number of defenders in coverage and his inability to make tight-window throws against them.

The bottom line for the Jets is clear: do not blitz Trubisky, and stay disciplined with your rush lanes to keep him contained in the pocket. But if things aren’t working, change the plan quickly. Do not allow another Brissett situation to transpire.

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