Is Bengals re-signing Jessie Bates really that unrealistic?

Cincinnati Bengals safety Jessie Bates seems like a lock to leave the team in free agency.

He’s one of the best in the NFL at his position and the Bengals have to focus on other free agents and cap-sapping moves such as the long-term outlook on extensions for major names. Plus, Bates himself has said he can’t just turn down a massive pay difference with other teams.

But what if the market’s just not there?

We’ve seen strange markets develop for positions and players at random in the past. Were that to happen with Bates, who’s to say he and the team don’t agree on something, even if it’s a short deal?

Looking at the overall landscape, safety is one of those positions that looks great this year. Bates is included in that — but he’s far from the only option safety-needy teams will have.

9 safeties in the PFF Top-150 prospects
14 safeties in the PFF Top-100 FAs (Bell and Bates included)

You have to wonder…

— Andrew Russell (@Andrew_Russell7) February 17, 2023

At PFF’s free agency rankings, Bates is the fourth overall safety. But major names like Jordan Poyer, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Jimmie Ward, Taylor Rapp and even Cincinnati’s Vonn Bell present different styles of options that are both effective and cheaper.

The PFF big board has two safeties ranked in the top 32 starting at ninth overall. Keep in mind in both categories position and scheme versatility could mean guys listed as corners wind up as safeties, too.

Player performance also has an impact on market and Bates, while possessing rare range, hasn’t always been consistent. His 2021 season was notorious for mild production in the regular season before an epic run on the way to the Super Bowl. Last year? A 76.8 overall PFF grade with four interceptions, an improvement on the 2021 grade, but he’s never come close to that 90.1 mark from 2020.

That won’t really matter to say, a really bad squad with money to blow in the middle of a rebuild, among other possibilities. But it’s one of those things that could make the market less attractive to Bates and his reps than expected.

Speaking of his reps, the Bengals don’t have a good track record with agent David Mulugheta, so it’s 100 percent something to keep in mind.

Even so, one has to wonder if a mild market bridges the gap enough between the two parties that the Bengals decide it’s worth bringing him back. Besides on the field scheme fit that loses versatility and possibilities if he leaves, there’s something to be said for his locker room impact (he’s always out with Joe Burrow, too) and he’s made it more than clear he doesn’t want to leave.

It’s a good problem to have, too, if Bates does come back and they keep Vonn Bell and still have first-rounder Dax Hill. Three-safety sets are a thing and Hill has the versatility to line up elsewhere.

This might all sound like wishful thinking — or not to fans who want to see all of the money spent on the offense. But it’s something to keep in mind, at the very least.

While Bates is likely gone, a mild market and a contention window that has free agents wanting to join and coaches turning down promotions to stay might just be a combination that actually keeps Bates in town.