Mock drafts ignore capital needed to bypass Texans, pick No. 1 overall

The Houston Texans blew it in Week 18 by beating the Indianapolis Colts 32-31 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Combined with a Chicago Bears loss to the Minnesota Vikings, the Texans failed to secure the No. 1 overall pick.

In some regards, it doesn’t matter as the Texans are presumably going with a quarterback at No. 2 overall. The Bears certainly would not need another signal caller as 2021 first-rounder Justin Fields tapped into his potential last season.

Nevertheless the Bears are in a position where they could field offers for the top overall pick, especially if a quarterback-needy team wants to bypass the Texans and grab the best quarterback off the board.

Some mock drafts reflect such a scenario where the Bears strike a deal. At least CBS Sports’ Josh Edwards attempts to provide a target for compensation, but uses the Philadelphia Eagles’ model from 2016. In any event, the Carolina Panthers are the latest team to scoop the Texans and go up to No. 1 overall and get their quarterback. This time it would put a dent in Houston’s draft plans as the Panthers grab Alabama’s Bryce Young.

That was mimicking a plan to go to No. 2 overall to take Carson Wentz. Here is what happened the last time a team went to No. 1 overall via trade.

It was in 2016 when the Los Angeles Rams sent their 2016 first-, two second-, and third-round picks along with their 2017 first- and third-rounders to the Tennessee Titans for their first-, fourth-, and sixth-round picks in 2016. The Rams used that pick to take Jared Goff — you know, the Detroit Lions’ starting quarterback the past two seasons.

Essentially the Indianapolis Colts (No. 4), Las Vegas Raiders (No. 7), and Carolina Panthers (No. 9) would have to agree to giving up two first- and second-rounders to have a seat at the table. Is the quarterback worth having your two front teeth knocked out of your draft class the next season?

That is if the Bears are feeling generous. Don’t forget the Rams also had to toss in a third-round pick in 2016 and 2017.

If a team gives up that type of capital for their franchise quarterback, the paradox is they also gutted their ability to surround him with quality weapons or shore up the defense to protect his leads. No quarterback in the 2023 draft class is worth that type of capital.