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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Wild Card Playoff Games

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By: Brandon Lee Gowton

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Suggestions for trying to beat the odds.

Before the WIld Card round of the 2023 NFL postseason kicks off, let’s have some fun by looking at the spreads for this week’s playoff games.

You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via DraftKings SportsBook.

My overall record so far is 129-132-10. That’s tied with the BGN Community, which is also 129-132-10.

Here are the latest suggestions when trying to beat the odds. Also, don’t forget to check out our weekly picks and previews of every game on The SB Nation NFL Show’s The Look Ahead podcast featuring me, RJ Ochoa, and Rob “Stats” Guerrera.)

WILD CARD GAMES

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-9.5): It’s hard to be impressed with the Seahawks’ resume since Week 10. Their losses in that span: the Bucs at a neutral site in London, the Raiders at home, the Panthers at home, the 49ers at home, and the Chiefs on the road. Their wins in that span: the Rams after a comeback on the road, the Jets led by Mike White, and the Rams at home in overtime. Meanwhile, the 49ers have won 10 games in a row. The 49ers’ first game against the Seahawks was a home matchup that ended in a 27-7 San Fran win. It was a game where the 49ers lost their original starting quarterback and the Seahawks’ only points came on a blocked field goal. The 49ers’ second game against the Seahawks shows a score that made the game look closer than it really was. San Fran was about to go up 24 to 6 before Robbie Gould missed a 43-yard field goal and the Seahawks scored a garbage time touchdown to ultimately make it an eight-point result. There’s every reason to believe the 49ers are going to win. Will they cover? Perhaps the weather creates conditions for a low-scoring affair but I trust the 49ers to get it done. PICK: 49ers -9.5

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-2.5) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Trevor Lawrence leaving plays on the field is a bit unnerving. But you would be a fool to bet against Doug Pederson as a playoff underdog. PICK: Jaguars +2.5

MIAMI DOLPHINS at BUFFALO BILLS (-13.5): Skylar Thompson is completing 57.1% of his attempts for 5.1 yards per attempt and a 62.2 passer rating. He’s produced one touchdown to five combined interceptions and fumbles. Not going to be able to bet on that guy covering the spread, let alone leading Miami to the win. PICK: Bills -13.5

NEW YORK GIANTS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3): The Vikings are due for some bad luck. Going 11-0 in one-score games is not just about ‘knowing how to win close games.’ It’s also about getting very fortunate. Minnesota ranks 28th in weighed DVOA (which accounts for recent performance) and they have a negative point differential. Daniel Jones should be trusted to take care of the ball more than Kirk Cousins should be trusted to not have a big gaffe. The Giants are healthier and playing with a house money feel. The pressure is on the Vikings, who needed a 61-yard game-winning field goal to beat New York last month. PICK: Giants +3

BALTIMORE RAVENS at CINCINNATI BENGALS (-8.5): Baltimore’s defense has had success against Joe Burrow this season. But the Ravens’ vibes are so bad. The Lamar Jackson situation feels off. Tyler Huntley is seemingly going to play at less than 100%. Not a recipe for success. Bengals -8.5

DALLAS COWBOYS (-2.5) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: The Cowboys are my Lock Of The Week for The SB Nation NFL Show. For the record, I finished the regular season 12-6 with my LOTW picks, which was ahead of RJ (8-8-2) and Stats (7-9-2). So, I clearly know what I’m talking about … in relation to them, at least. This Bucs team just isn’t very good. For as much as I don’t trust Mike McCarthy, Todd Bowles has borne out to be not a good head coach. The Cowboys’ defensive line will be able to take advantage of Tampa’s leaky offensive line and lead Dallas to their first-ever win over Tom Brady. PICK: Cowboys -2.5

Originally posted on Bleeding Green Nation