Should Bucs Trade Back From Pick No. 19?

The times, they are a-changin’. Bob Dylan wrote that masterpiece in 1964 and it succinctly sums up almost every facet of our world. Given enough time, our realities do adjust, progress, and yes, change. That is true of the Bucs as well.

This off-season will be one of much change for the team. Gone is the Hall of Fame signal caller who acted as the lynch pin for the team’s 2020-2021 Super Bowl run and subsequent back-to-back division titles.

The defense will undoubtedly look different in 2023 than it does right now. There are 10 players on that side of the ball who logged at least 400 snaps last year who are currently set to reach free agency. I don’t care how much of a cap wizard Mike Greenberg is, with the cap constraints the team is facing there is no way they can keep all 10. The Bucs will look different next season.

With limited cap space and a plethora of holes to fill, this is a pivotal draft for general manager Jason Licht and his team. The Bucs have to pull off a successful draft if they are to “reload” rather than “rebuild” their roster. How can the Bucs maximize their chances at hitting on multiple draft picks to bolster their roster? The best course of action may be to trade back rather than trade up.

Bucs Face Holes In Multiple Places On Their Roster

Currently the team has seven draft picks in the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft. They hold the 19th pick in the first round along with a second-round, third-round, fifth-round, two sixth-rounders and a seventh-round pick. The Bucs traded their fourth-round pick last year in a trade up for cornerback Zyon McCollum. It is expected the team may be awarded one or two additional draft picks due to losing Jordan Whitehead (fifth round) and O.J. Howard (seventh round) to free agency last year, although that isn’t definitive at this time.

With these picks and their limited draft capital the team has to find a cavalcade of players who can contribute rather quickly. The Bucs currently face either holes in the starting lineup or depth at several positions including quarterback, wide receiver, offensive tackle, defensive tackle, outside linebacker, inside linebacker, cornerback and safety. There is a good chance they could add positions to that list through expected cuts.

While fans and NFL personnel departments alike fancy themselves swamis who have the ability to pick the best players in the draft and never make a bad pick, the results don’t bear that out. The best drafting teams are often not the teams that nail a higher percentage of picks than their peers, but rather the teams that embrace the idea that the draft is really a crapshoot and so they try to accumulate as many picks as possible.

Bucs Could Help Diversify Their Draft By Trading Back

If the Bucs decide that there is no player who really differentiates themselves from others in that range at a position of need at pick 19, they could trade back and add additional picks for either this year or next. A hypothetical trade could be with Cincinnati, who just made their second consecutive AFC Championship game. The Bengals will have the majority of their core returning in 2023 with projected needs at some high-value positions like cornerback and offensive tackle. If they believe the last really high-end player at one of those positions is about to come off the board there is potential incentive for them to move up.

A trade between the two teams could look like this:

• Bengals receive 19th overall pick.
• Bucs receive 28th overall pick, 92nd overall pick (third round), 206th overall pick (sixth round), 2024 third round pick.

Bucs GM Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

By the most heavily cited trade value chart (the Dallas Cowboys chart created by Jimmy Johnson in the early 1990s), the packages would line up pretty closely. By more modern, researched methods (the Spielberger-Fitzgerald model) the Bucs would acquire a hefty amount of surplus value. By the SF model the Bucs would gain the equivalent of the 23rd overall pick in surplus value. But most importantly they would improve their odds of hitting on a pick.

The acquisition of three additional draft picks would allow the Bucs the opportunity to select two additional players in this year’s draft to help fill the plurality of holes they are set to have as well as diversify the opportunity of making a successful pick. In addition, they would be building additional draft capital in 2024 to help potentially secure the next quarterback of the future.

With so many glaring needs on the roster the 2023 Bucs are hardly a single draft pick or two away from a Super Bowl like they were in 2020. While the team has a strong nucleus there are still several holes that will need to be addressed this off-season. And with the draft not being a sure thing, especially at pick No. 19, the best course of action may be trading back and accumulating more players and opportunities to hit.