Week 10 Offensive Rankings and Analysis: One drive wonders

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

Both the Colts and the Patriots implemented a run heavy game in week 10, so the total number of drives was limited. This usually means a low-scoring game and boy was it.

The Colts’ offense opened the game with a 10-rush/4-pass 75-yard drive for a touchdown, but never saw the red zone again. They amassed only 14 first downs in the game, which was low even for a low drive volume game. Their 63.6% Drive Success Rate was the 7th worst of the week.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

The Colts 1.11 net points per drive is the 6th lowest of the week and the 2nd lowest for the team this year. That drops them 2 spots to the 15th ranked PPD on the season. Let that sink in. As bad as this offense has been, there are 17 teams that are doing worse.

The Colts earned below average yards per play and could not convert that into first downs (19th yds/ply, 22nd 1st/ply). That has been their Achilles’ heel all year, ranking 21st in first down conversion rate even though they have the 10th best yards per play. A lot of that is on 3rd downs, where they face the 5th shortest yards to gain, but only manage the 14th ranked conversion of those downs.

PASS TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

EPA-wise, Minshew was right in the middle of QBs, ranking 13th of 28 in EPA per dropback. I discussed this in my QB stats post, but even though he looked lost and frantic, he made some very good plays and his interception was the only big mistake of the day.

Overall, he was accurate and the lack of sacks boosted his yardage efficiency to 12th highest this week. That’s not to say that he was good. He wasn’t. But he did sort of “get away with one”.

On the year, the Colts passing ranks 17th in EPA efficiency making them the worst average passing offense I have ever seen.

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

As promising as the run game was on the first drive, it died after that. I’m not a big fan of judging a run game by yards per carry but 2.7 ypc (23rd) is low enough for even me to take note. The 4 rushing first downs on the first drive were the only ones all day, resulting in a pathetic 15.4% conversion rate (21st).

By Adjusted Rush Success Rate, they rank 18th of 28 on the week and 20th of 32 on the year.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

This was a bad week for an average offense.

Over the last 2 weeks, the Colts have played poor defenses and walked away with a PPD that ranks 22nd in that timeframe. After the bye, they face a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 11th in defensive PPD.

The Bucs are not without their weaknesses though. They give up the 7th most yards per play and the 10th highest conversion rate. However, they do find success in limiting points through turnovers, with the 6th most take-aways in the league.

Tampa Bay ranks 22nd against the pass by EPA per dropback and 21st in terms of conversion rate. They are even worse at preventing yardage efficiency with the 27th ranked net yards per dropback against. If Minshew can limit his mistakes, there is a good chance he can throw against them.

On the ground, the Bucs are very good at preventing successful rushes. They are 8th in defensive Adj Rush Success rate, backed up by 12th lowest rushing conversion rate. They are going to stack the box and dare Minshew to move the ball with his arm.