10 rules that the Rams must follow to have successful free agency

Here are 10 rules that the Rams should follow when free agency begins next week

The Los Angeles Rams enter a critical free agency period in which they will have some cap space to spend, giving them the ability to supplant the roster with veterans. While free agency can be exciting, there is also a lot of risk involved with big contracts in the mix. Here are 10 rules that the Rams should follow when free agency begins next week.

1. Invest in for future value, not past performance

When it comes to free agency, it’s easy to get caught up in past performance. However, the goal shouldn’t be to pay a player based on what they have done, but rather what they will do for your team. The player may have earned a big contract, however, it’s important to ensure that they have the ability to live up to that big contract on the field going forward.

For example, cornerback Xavien Howard was just released by the Miami Dolphins and three years ago was considered one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. With that said, Howard’s level of play began to fall off last season. While he is an upgrade over Derion Kendrick, that can also be found at a cheaper price elsewhere. Contrarily, a player like Danielle Hunter has past performance, but also may be able to provide good value going forward as good edge rushers still tend to have success into their mid-30s. If a team is going to pay a player a top-end deal, that player needs to be able to produce at that level.

2. Have a plan, and be ready to come off that plan

This is a trap that the Rams got caught up in back in 2022. The plan was always too allow Von Miller to hit free agency to get his value and then re-sign him for a ‘run it back’ campaign. That never came to fruition as the Rams waited on Miller for too long and then he chose the Buffalo Bills. With money to spend, the Rams felt forced to make a big move and that player ended up being Allen Robinson.

It’s important to have a plan and some target players in mind. In that case that a target player looks to be going elsewhere, it’s important to be able to diverge off of that plan and shift focus. By doing so, the Rams can avoid a similar Von Miller-like mistake that they made two years ago. The Rams can’t get pigeon-holed and then be caught scrambling. That leads to mistakes.

3. Pay players, not names

This goes hand it hand with rule number one. From a fan perspective, it’s easy to get caught on names that you recognize. When a player of Xavien Howard’s caliber becomes available, it’s easy to recognize the name and assume they are still a very good player. Prior to 2022, the Rams paid Bobby Wagner. That ended up working out to an extent as he earned second-team all-pro honors. However, Wagner was nowhere near the consistent disruptive force in the middle of the field that he once was in his prime.

John Johnson III and Darious Williams are names that are recognizable given their history with the team. However, prior to this past year, Williams had gone two consecutive seasons without an interception and doesn’t have the size that the Rams need on the outside. The Rams need to pay players that will help move the team forward and build on last year’s result. Paying names is where you can get in trouble.

4. Avoid any 30+ year old cornerbacks

There are a few positional rule to follow when it comes to NFL free agency and we’re going to talk about those here. Cornerback is a very difficult position in free agency because a lot of cornerbacks are scheme dependent. They also rapidly decline with age. Nnamdi Asomugha was one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL with the Oakland Raiders in the mid-2000s. He signed with the Philadelphia Eagles at 30 and was cut two years later. Asomugha lost half a step and the Eagles got away from a press-man-system that he had success in with the Raiders. Another Eagles bust, Byron Maxwell, was heavily dependent on the Legion of Boom scheme.

Last year, there were THREE outside full-time cornerbacks age 31 or older. History of 30+ year old CBs is not good. This would eliminate players like Howard and Williams. While the Rams could trade for L’Jarius Sneed, it’s important to recognize the scheme that Steve Spagnuolo plays and that may be a benefiting factor. Overall, unless you can be sure that it’s a schematic fit, top-of-the-market cornerbacks should be avoided in free agency.

5. Don’t pay a top of the market running back

This one should be obvious. Very few teams are a running back away from a Super Bowl title. It’s true that sometimes a good running back can unlock part of an offense. It’s also true that player can also be found in the third, fourth, or fifth rounds of the NFL Draft.

There are some big name running backs set to hit free agency this offseason. Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs are two of those players. While adding a veteran could make some sense, the Rams may be better off waiting until the draft or after the draft to add that player. There are much bigger needs and more important areas where the team should be spending capital.

6. Player fit is just as important in free agency as the draft

The NFL is not a game of Madden. Signing the best “overall” player in the NFL simply doesn’t work. You could make an argument that offensive and defensive schematic fit are just as important in free agency as they are during the draft. A player’s style of play, skill, and personality matters.

Similar to the draft, for as many times as a free agent has success with a team, there are just an many examples of a free agent player busting. However, in free agency, the stakes are higher with the money involved. Pro player scouting is important when it comes to identifying free agent fits and those are the methods that should be relied on when adding players.

7. Don’t get caught in a bidding war

It’s important to have a number in mind for a player and not get caught in a bidding war that results in overpaying for a player, putting them above their value or spending too much time trying to sign a player only to miss out. Much like in the draft, it’s easy to fall in love with a player in free agency and image what that player can unlock from a team dynamic standpoint. With that said, it’s critical to stay disciplined in free agency and if another team wants to overpay for a player, let them.

The Rams fell into this trap with Von Miller, getting into a bidding war with the Buffalo Bills. Miller ended up choosing the Bills, but the Rams spent too much of the opening portion of free agency on Miller. Again, it comes back to being able to pivot and have multiple plans.

8. Understand players in free agency ‘are who they are

Realistically, teams can’t extent to re-build or re-invent the game of a veteran player. Those expectations need to be established. That’s not to say that improvement can’t happen, however, when signing a player who is 27 or 28, that player likely has reached their ceiling at that point in their career. Of course, a new situation or better schematic fit can help. Still, you’re much more likely to unlock the potential of a player entering free agency at 25 than a player at 28.

9. Avoid ‘buyer beware’ candidates i.e. players with extensive medical history

The first major signing of the Les Snead era was for offensive tackle Jake Long. While Long had started 61 consecutive games in his career, towards the end of his Dolphins tenure, that streak was snapped when he suffered a back ailment and then later a torn right bicep injury. The Rams signed Long to a big contract and he suffered back-to-back ACL injuries.

It’s a good idea to avoid players with an injury history given the amount of money that is likely to be tied into a free agent player. Other buyer beware candidates i.e. players coming off of a big year in a contract season should also be looked into. In this case, the Rams need to do their due diligence and unless they are absolutely sure that player clears a physical or they are seen as a perfect fit that can continue success in their scheme, it’s best to stay away.

10. There is more risk than reward at the top of the free agent market

With the franchise tag, NFL free agency has been diluted. Take this season for example. Jaylon Johnson, Brian Burns, Josh Allen, L’Jarius Sneed and others all were either given the franchise tag or signed extensions. If a player becomes available, it’s likely for a reason. Just because a player is considered the best free agent, doesn’t necessarily mean they are a player that will live up to a top-of-the-market contract.

If that player doesn’t live up to that deal, it becomes very difficult to move on due to the money involved. While maybe not preferred by fans, waiting for the second or third-tier of free agents to help supplement the roster rather than be the star players sometimes ends up working out better.