2-Point Conversion: Bucs Fans Need To Readjust Expectations

It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column, which features two big statements, two probing questions and two bold predictions.

The Bucs fell to 2-1 by losing to the unbeaten Eagles, 25-11, at Raymond James Stadium on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay couldn’t run the ball nor could the team stop the run as D’Andre Swift ran for 130 yards and the Eagles amassed 201 yards on the ground. The Bucs will try to regroup on Sunday at New Orleans in an NFC South showdown against the 2-1 Saints.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Bucs Fans Need To Readjust Expectations

Did you think the Bucs were going to beat the Eagles on Monday Night Football?

Really?

After having 10 days to rest, heal and prepare, did you think Philadelphia, the defending NFC champion, was going to lose to a Tampa Bay team without Tom Brady? A Bucs team that went 8-9 last year and got throttled in the first round of the playoffs by the Cowboys?

It’s okay for you to hope that your team wins, Pewter People. Hope is a necessary ingredient for being a football fan.

Every NFL player and coach has to expect to win every game. The team’s goal each week is to win, and the goal each season should be to win the Super Bowl for every team across the league. That should be the mindset within the walls at the AdventHealth Training Center.

But outside the walls of One Buccaneer Place, Bucs fans should know better. You know that Tampa Bay is not going 17-0. And you do realize this team is not Super Bowl-ready, right?

This year is not about the Bucs becoming a Super Bowl contender. Tampa Bay has a near-zero chance of winning a Super Bowl with this roster. That should not be the expectations for Bucs fans.

This is a year in which the Bucs are trying to three-peat as NFC South champions and make the postseason for a fourth season in a row with a team that only has 12 players left from its Super Bowl roster in 2020. This is a continuing-to-revamp and continuing-to-build kind of year – not an arrival year.

This is a season in which the Bucs’ front office and coaching staff is evaluating the roster for the future.

Is Robert Hainsey a starting-caliber center or just a guy? Is Cade Otton a legitimate starting-caliber tight end or really nothing more than a No. 2? Can Rachaad White be a feature back in this league or is he just a little better than a backup like Ke’Shawn Vaughn?

Can Baker Mayfield revive his career in Tampa Bay or is he simply transitioning from being a first-rounder to a career backup like Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota and Mitch Trubisky before him?

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Can Joe Tryon-Shoyinka finally emerge as a dangerous pass rusher, or is he a first-round bust? Can defensive tackle Logan Hall improve and show signs of life as a pass rusher or will he follow Tryon-Shoyinka down the bust path? Is Calijah Kancey an impact player at defensive tackle, or is he too small to play inside in the NFL?

Can Dave Canales be an NFL-caliber play-caller? Is Todd Bowles the right head coach for this team?

I’ve got news for you, Pewter People. I predicted that the Bucs would go 9-8 this season. That’s one more win from last year, and a sign of slight progress in a transition season. No one on the Pewter Report staff predicted more than nine wins.

That means the Bucs are going to lose nearly as many games as they’re going to win. This is not an 11-win or 12-win football team.

I’m not being pessimistic. I’m being realistic.

No one on the Pewter Report staff had the Bucs beating the Eagles.

And I’ll tell you right now that Tampa Bay is going to lose at Buffalo and at San Francisco, too. The Bills and 49ers are simply better teams. Be prepared for those losses.

Those aren’t going to be upsets like the Cardinals beating the Cowboys was on Sunday. Upsets by the Bucs would qualify as beating a favored Saints team this weekend or a favored Lions team after the bye.

If you want to really enjoy Bucs football this year, readjust your expectations. It’s fine to hope your wins every week – just don’t expect it. Because you’re bound to be disappointed about half the time this year if you do expect it.

STATEMENT 2. Bucs Defense Had A Huge Letdown

It was Monday Night Football in Tampa and there was significant cloud cover and even some in-game showers at times. It certainly wasn’t a starry night as the Bucs’ stars didn’t shine, especially on defense. Old man Lavonte David had a game-high 13 tackles and was gifted a sack when Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts tripped on a rollout in the red zone.

David’s high tackle total wasn’t a sign of dominance. It was a sign of the Eagles 78 plays on offense, which was 34 more plays than the Bucs’ 44. That led to a 17:50 time of possession advantage for Philadelphia, which amassed 201 rushing yards to Tampa Bay’s paltry 44 yards on the ground. The aggressive Bucs defensive front that played so well in sacking Justin Fields six times a week ago was nowhere to be found.

Nose tackle Vita Vea was dealing with a pectoral injury and had a pedestrian three tackles. Outside linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka’s two-sack effort against Fields last week looked like a flash in the pan rather than a sign of progress. He had two tackles.

Even Shaq Barrett was invisible after notching a sack and a pick-six against the Bears. He did not register a single statistic against the Eagles. Both Barrett and Tryon-Shoyinka were dominated by right tackle Lane Johnson and left tackle Jordan Mailata.

Bucs ILB Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

Inside linebacker Devin White was gifted an interception, but only returned it 26 yards before stepping out of bounds due to a pulled groin he was playing through. White had seven tackles, but was shoved around all night by Philly’s aggressive offensive line.

Even Antoine Winfield Jr. looked average on Monday night. He finished with 11 tackles, but that was more a product of D’Andre Swift making it to the third level of the defense too often on his way to 130 yards rushing.

Nickelback Christian Izien didn’t produce a takeaway for the first time this season. And star cornerback Jamel Dean, who has been playing just average football through the first two weeks of the season, injured his shoulder and had to leave the game.

Tampa Bay’s offense underwhelmed on Monday night for sure. It was overwhelmed by a much more talented and physical Philadelphia defense. But the Bucs defense is supposed to be wearing the Superman cape through the first part of the season as the young offense comes together. As it turns out, there were no defensive heroes in sight on Monday night. That will have to change in New Orleans or the Bucs will fall to 2-2 heading into the bye week.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Where Is Chris Godwin In The Bucs Offense?

Who knows? Has anyone seen the $20 million man?

No, I’m not talking about the wannabe $25 million man, Mike Evans.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

Evans finally showed up in the second half of the 25-11 loss to the Eagles after dropping a first-quarter touchdown, catching five passes for 60 yards, including the Bucs’ only touchdown and produced the team’s longest play, a 24-yard catch.

Evans now has a team-leading 17 catches for 297 yards (17.5 avg.) and three touchdowns. He’s on pace to catch 96 passes for 1,683 yards and 17 touchdowns – all would be career highs, and the 17 TDs would be a new franchise record.

Where was Chris Godwin? You know, the Bucs’ leading receiver from a year ago who is the highest-paid player on offense. Where’s that guy?

Through three games, Godwin has just 13 catches for 141 yards and a pedestrian 10.1 average. While he doesn’t have a touchdown, he did score Tampa Bay’s two-point conversion on Monday night, but that came after his quiet three-catch, 32-yard performance. Despite being the league’s 13th highest-paid receiver, 38 NFL players have more receptions than Godwin and 48 NFL players have more receiving yardage than the Bucs’ $20 million man.

While Evans is off to a hot start, Godwin is ice cold, as he’s on pace to produce just 73 catches for 799 yards this year. Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Dave Canales needs to make the passing game more than just “throw it to Mike Evans” and design some opportunities for Godwin and provide more balance through the air.

And if the 30-year old Evans wants to get a rich raise and make in the neighborhood of $25 million per year, he needs to not drop touchdowns. That’s the second time this year he has failed to haul in an easy score, also dropping a slant in the red zone in Minnesota as the defensive back fell down on the play.

QUESTION 2. Is Rachaad White “The Guy” At Running Back?

After three games, we’re not sure. The Bucs’ rushing attack ranked dead last in the league last year, averaging 75 yards per game. It currently ranks 27th in the NFL, averaging 78 yards per game.

Rachaad White has looked indecisive and slow on many of his 48 carries. He’s danced around behind the line of scrimmage and been too patient at times, waiting for a hole to emerge and get stuffed for no gain, rather than use his 220-pound frame to push forward for a minimal gain. As a result he’s got 150 yards through three games, averaging 50 yards each week and a dismal 3.1 yards per carry.

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

On Monday night against the Eagles, White had just 38 yards on 14 carries (2.7 avg.) and was tackled in the end zone for a safety. That’s not all his fault, as the offensive line was often dominated by Philadelphia’s aggressive front seven. Yet White needs to run the ball harder.

“We’ve got to stay on our blocks a little longer,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said. “Obviously, it goes hand in hand. Rachaad has to hit it. I think he tried to make too many big plays when it was a grind-it-out type of game. You’re not going to get big plays on these guys. You’ve got to start hitting it up in there, getting two, three, and four yards and hope you can break one later on.

“He probably had too many cuts trying to make an explosive play – something out of nothing – as opposed to taking what they give him. Given the magnitude of the game, knowing it was going to be one of those types of games, just from an experience standpoint he can get better that way and he will.”

The problem is that the Bucs don’t have much in the way of alternatives in the backfield. Speedy Chase Edmonds is on injured reserve for a month due to a knee sprain. Rookie Sean Tucker hasn’t shown much, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn is in the dog house, buried on the depth chart. Everyone knows he’s not the answer at running back.

General manager Jason Licht has done a very good job drafting certain positions, such as offensive line and wide receiver. But running back has been his weakness. Ronald Jones II was a second-round pick, and Charles Sims, Vaughn and White were drafted in the third round. Jeremy McNichols was a wasted pick in the fifth round. We’ll see if White can emerge as a capable lead rusher this year, otherwise Licht has completely struck out at the running back position in the draft despite five swings.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Bucs Will Beat The Saints

Saints QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Last week, I predicted that the Bucs would be 3-1 as the team heads into the bye, but I wasn’t sure if that third win was going to come against the Eagles or the Saints. A loss to Philadelphia means that Tampa Bay needs to win at New Orleans to make this prediction come true.

At full strength, the Bucs look like the better team. But just four weeks into the season Tampa Bay has several injured starters and we’ve only seen first-round draft pick Calijah Kancey for 11 plays due to a lingering calf injury.

This game is a toss-up as a result, but I like the fact that Tampa Bay will be facing Jameis Winston, the Bucs starting quarterback from 2015-19, on Sunday. Not that injured Saints starter Derek Carr has been impressive, but Winston will come into this game amped up to play his former team and excited to be a starter again. That will lead to some early interception opportunities for the Bucs defense.

Winston threw three picks, including a pick-six, in Tampa Bay’s 20-10 win at New Orleans last year in Week 2.

PREDICTION 2: Dee Delaney Will Get Another Pick In New Orleans

Who knows if Carlton Davis III or Jamel Dean will be able to play at New Orleans? The guess here is that one of them might, but the Bucs should try to find some snaps for Dee Delaney, who played better at cornerback against the Eagles than Zyon McCollum did.

Delaney is a bit of a ballhawk, and had two interceptions against the Jets in the second preseason game in August. He also recorded a pick on Monday Night Football and the guess here is that he would get another one against Jameis Winston on Sunday if he sees the field.

“Delaney came in – he’s a heady ballplayer,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said. “He made a great play on the interception play down there on the goal line to get his feet in play. We’ve kind of seen that all the time that we’ve had him. We can still as a group – him included – do a better job tackling out on the perimeter.”

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