2024 NFL Draft quarterback deep dive: Drake Maye, North Carolina

Is Maye the quarterback of the Giants’ dreams?

North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye has been considered one of the top quarterbacks, and the top prospects at any position, in the 2024 NFL Draft. The New York Giants have also spent a considerable amount of time around Chapel Hill this year, with credentialed scouts at four UNC games in 2023 (that we know of). One of those games, UNC vs. South Carolina, was attended by GM Joe Schoen.

Maye has commonly been considered a quarterback the Giants would covet in the upcoming draft. Maye has also long been expected to be a Top 3 pick in the draft, however his draft stock has become fluid in recent weeks as Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy have seen their stock rise.

That said, draft stock changes in the public sphere tend to reflect the rest of us catching up to the NFL, as opposed to dramatic changes in how NFL teams feel about a given prospect.

So just who is Maye as a quarterback? What does he bring to the table and what kind of player could he become in the right situation?

Games watched

2022: vs. Notre Dame, vs. Clemson (ACC Championship), vs. Oregon (Holiday Bowl)
2023: vs. South Carolina, vs. Miami, vs. Duke, vs. Clemson

Background

Maye was courted by the top programs in the country, receiving offers from the likes of Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Clemson. However, he chose to stay close to home and follow in his father’s footsteps at North Carolina. He succeeded Sam Howell at North Carolina after playing sparingly as a red shirt freshman in 2021.

He took over the reins of the offense full time in 2022 and immediately put the world on notice. Recruiting profiles compared Maye to Sam Bradford for his arm talent and ability as a pure pocket passer – but with more athleticism. He immediately looked like a future (high) first round prospect in 2022, completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 4,321 yards, 38 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, as well as running for 698 yards and another 7 touchdowns.

Maye took a slight step back statistically this past year, but he remains one of the top three or four quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Measurables

Kent Lee Platte (@mathbomb) | RAS.football

Maye has a prototypical frame for the quarterback position with the height and weight that teams tend to prefer. He’s tall enough to have good sight lines across the middle of the field and teams should be comfortable with his size giving him durability.

Weight doesn’t exactly correlate with better durability at the NFL level. In fact the opposite seems to be true, and smaller players within a position group tend to be less injury prone than larger players. However, Maye isn’t a particularly big quarterback at 225 pounds and the injury rate is pretty stable between 210 and 230 pounds, before jumping up when players get above 230 pounds.

It is interesting that Maye has relatively small hands for his frame at just over 9 inches. However, that hasn’t impacted his ability to grip the ball as a runner or throw with touch.

We don’t have any firm numbers on Maye’s athletic traits, but his tape shows a player with strong athleticism.

Intangibles

So much of what we focus on with quarterbacks is tangible — things like their height, weight, 40 time, or their ball velocity. However much of what makes a quarterback successful is intangible.

We can’t really measure things like mental processing, football IQ, leadership, or competitiveness, but we can see their effects.

Football IQ and Mental processing

Neither offensive scheme in which Maye played at North Carolina put much on his mental plate. While he was occasionally asked to make full-field progression reads, most of his passing was done with one or two-man reads in relatively simple route concepts. Maye did flash an understanding of how to use his eyes and body language to manipulate secondary players, though he didn’t do so regularly. Conversely, there were also instances when Maye would lock onto his target from the time he received the snap. That happened particularly frequently when he was asked to make one-man reads.

Maye does show an understanding of how to throw with anticipation, frequently starting his throwing motion before his receiver completes, or even starts, his break. That suggests a good understanding of the offensive scheme and how routes fit together and attack coverages.

Similarly, he typically processed information quickly enough. Maye doesn’t seem to be a particularly great processor, but he also doesn’t need to wait to see receivers work open before throwing the ball.

That said, Maye certainly has room for improvement in his field vision. He isn’t prone to missing defenders down the field, but he can miss receivers down the field. Maye can be a bit prone to bailing from the pocket early or taking high-difficulty throws when an easier throw was available. He improved some in this area in 2023, but more improvement will be needed to be efficient in the NFL.

He’ll also have to get smarter as a decision maker at the NFL level. Maye is a very aggressive quarterback who’s always looking to attack the defense. Maye is very willing to attack down the field (more on that in the stats section) and he always reads “Touchdown to Checkdown”.

Maye seems to relish threading the tiniest of needles. He obviously has confidence in his arm and ability to challenge tight coverages with velocity and ball placement.

Smart and well coached defenses used Maye’s aggressiveness against him at times. For instance, Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins took advantage of Maye’s desire for the big play by baiting him into throwing to a seemingly open receiver then explosively closing on the ball for a game-ending interception.

Those types of plays happen, and Maye’s gunslinger tendencies are part of his effectiveness at quarterback. However, he’ll need to temper his devil may care attitude toward risk to avoid being victimized by sophisticated NFL defenses.

Leadership and Toughness

As mentioned above, Maye is a very aggressive quarterback and that comes part and parcel with impressive competitive toughness. While he can be too quick to bail on a stable pocket when pressured, Maye is also willing to take big hits if it means scoring points or picking up crucial first down. Likewise, he’s willing to take on contact when necessary as a runner and get yards the hard way.

That toughness also extends to moving on after negative plays. Maye might not have Eli Manning’s goldfish-like memory when it comes to turnovers, but he also never let the specter of a turnover scare him away from attacking the defense. There were instances on tape when Maye would throw an interception (or near interception), and then go right back out and attack the defense again on the next series.

Maye is well regarded as a leader at North Carolina. He’s said that he started breaking the huddle and getting his teammates fired up back in 2022. And in fact Maye is regarded as a fiery competitor. Albert Breer reports that he was told at the 2024 NFL Scouting combine that Maye’ demeanor took teams by surprise.

The quarterback teams thought they’d get—with that voice and laid-back gait—instead brought the juice, coming across as competitive and fiery,” Breer writes. “After someone told me Maye is more Philip Rivers than Eli Manning or Daniel Jones, a mutual friend of both Rivers and Jones gave me a direct response.

“He is Phillip” the person says.

North Carolina linebacker Cedric Gray also told reporters at the Combine that Maye made a point of helping him grow as a defender. Gray says that Maye helped him with a weakness he had in defending against back shoulder passes in coverage – after a steady diet of back shoulder passes to tight ends in practice.

Gray was sure to point out that Maye wasn’t picking on him or exploiting the weakness to look good in practice. Instead, he says that Maye offered insight into Gray’s game from an opposing quarterbacks’ perspective to help him grow as a defender.

Arm Talent

There’s no shortage of arm talent in the 2024 quarterback class, but even so, Maye stands out. He doesn’t have the strongest arm and isn’t the most creative thrower in the class, nor does he have the most efficient release or greatest accuracy.

However, he has an excellent blend of traits as a thrower of the ball that leaves his tape littered with “WOW” plays. It’s important to guard against being blinded by “WOW” plays when evaluating any prospect and remember to balance the highlights against the player’s down-to-down efficiency. That’s particularly true of the quarterback position where his ability to execute the routine plays well helps to allow the other 10 men on the offense to play up to their potential as well.

It’s easy to see that Maye’s ability to throw the ball is special, and we should recognize that fact without giving him double credit for it.

Maye has a relatively quick throwing motion that gets the ball out with alacrity when he’s under pressure. He’s able to generate plenty of velocity to drive the ball deep down the field without much in the way of apparent effort. Likewise, he’s able to throw with impressive zip when challenging tight coverages in the short and intermediate areas of the field.

Savvy cornerbacks may be able to bait Maye into ill-advised throws, however he still has the velocity on tap to beat them to the spot as they close on the ball.

Maye also has a pretty elastic arm as a passer. He isn’t quite capable of throws like Mahomes or Kyler Murray that seem to defy physics with how they generate velocity (with accuracy) from seemingly any arm angle. However, Maye is able to throw on the move and accurately deliver passes around defenders with a side-arm motion. A young Matt Stafford is likely an apt comparison for Maye’s arm.

Impressively, for a young and strong-armed quarterback, Maye doesn’t just throw fastballs. He understands when, where, and how to take heat off the ball and throw with touch. He consistently softens his passes to make them more catchable for receivers on short routes, or to take particular care in the ball’s placement to set up yards after the catch. He also understands when and how to layer the ball between defenders down the field. Maye can change release points and trajectory. There are multiple instances in his tape of him dropping the ball over a receivers’ shoulder or throwing a rainbow that comes down between defenders like a golfer getting a hole-out with a pitching wedge from off the green.

All that said, Maye still has room for improvement.

Starting from the ground up, Maye’s footwork is a work in progress. It has definitely shown improvement since the start of the 2022 season. Rather than use traditional drop-back footwork, Maye would consistently backpedal in a manner somewhat reminiscent of a defensive back, staying parallel to the line of scrimmage. That led to inconsistent timing on the play – as many route structures and passing concepts are timed to a quarterback’s steps – as well as lead to extra “settling” steps at the top of Maye’s drops.

Maye definitely showed improvement in this area between 2022 and 2023, and further improvement over the course of 2023. His passes tended to come out with better rhythm and precision this past year with improved (and more traditional) footwork.

However, he would still revert to his old habits on occasion, leading to inconsistencies. This is an area in which Maye will need to improve.

Maye has a quick throwing motion, but it’s somewhat elongated. His standard throwing motion isn’t anything like Tim Tebow’s, but it does have a definite “loop” as he transitions from loading to releasing the ball. That can create opportunities for forced fumbles in close quarters and keeps his throwing motion from being truly repeatable. This is, likewise, an area where he’ll need to continue to work as a pro.

Maye’s mechanics don’t need a complete teardown and rebuild, but improvements will allow him to be a more consistently efficient passer.

Athleticism

Maye is an excellent, but not quite “elite” athlete for the quarterback position. He has a good blend of size, play strength, quickness, agility, acceleration, and speed.

Unsurprisingly, Maye was a multi-sport athlete growing up. In addition to football, he also played baseball and basketball, and both sports are evident in his game. His ability to throw on the move and generate velocity without a firm base is a hallmark of quarterbacks with a baseball background. Likewise, Maye’s ability to change direction and throw with anticipation are artifacts of his basketball background.

Maye makes good use of his athleticism to flow within the pocket, adjusting his sight lines, buying precious seconds, and creating advantageous angles. His mobility also allows him to scramble behind the line of scrimmage and buy time for his receivers to work open or find open grass in a scramble drill. Maye also had the green light to turn upfield when scrambling, however he often scrambled to throw and would run as more of a last resort than a first one.

North Carolina did use Maye as a part of their regular run game with designed quarterback runs. Maye has solid vision as a runner and does a pretty good job of anticipating defenders at the first and second levels. He also has solid agility and acceleration for a player with his build, though nobody would confuse him with a “shifty” runner. Maye is able to find and exploit rushing lanes, and has plenty of speed to make good gains in the open field. He’s a smart runner who protects himself well in the open field. Maye doesn’t take unnecessary shots, understanding when he’s picked up what the defense is going to give him and either slides or gets out of bounds. That isn’t to say he’s a skittish runner, and Maye’s willing to run behind his pads to pick up tough yards or at the goal line.

They also used him on quarterback sneaks in short yardage situations, but Maye didn’t consistently execute those plays well. He has a tendency to play high in QB sneaks which makes it too easy for defenders to keep him from gaining yardage. He also isn’t quite as powerful a runner as we would normally expect from a player with his stature.

Projectable Stats

The use of stats and analytics is changing how we view and analyze the game of football. However, just because we have masses of data points, doesn’t mean we automatically make better decisions. Data that’s misunderstood or poorly interpreted is the same as no data at all, and distracting noise at worst.

However, there are some stats and advanced analytics that do have predictive value. Some stats, such as sack rate, are “sticky” and can follow quarterbacks from college to the NFL, as well as from team to team.

For our purposes, we’ll be looking at completion percentage, yards per game, EPA, and ESPN’s QBR. Each of those stats have a moderately-strong to strong correlation coefficient between college and the NFL. None of them are definitive, but they’re another tool that can help provide a backstop to check bias as well as confirm what we did (or didn’t) see on tape. For reference, I’ll be listing their rank among top quarterback prospects in 2023.

Yards Per Game: 300.6 (5th)
Completion Percentage: 63.3 (8th)
EPA: 74.4 (4)
ESPN QBR: 79 (6th)
Sack Rate: 6.4 percent (6th)

The predictive stats aren’t particularly kind to Maye, however his tape offers some clues as to why.

Maye had the second-highest explosive play rate among the top QB prospects, trailing only Michael Penix Jr. He averaged 9.3 pass attempts of 20+ yards per game. Those plays don’t lend themselves to good completion percentages, and also tend to have a higher risk/reward ratio. And while it’s true that longer passes, generally between 10-15 yards downfield, yield greater EPA than shallower passes, the greater risk and difficulty on explosive routes can also lower EPA if they’re relied upon too heavily. Devontez Walker is going to be an NFL receiver, but Maye didn’t have anything like the trio of Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan at his disposal. There were several instances in the tape viewed when Maye would make a good play, only to have the receiver fail to catch the ball.

It’s worth noting that Maye averaged more yards per game (308.6) at a higher completion rate (66.2) with a much higher EPA (115.4) and QBR (82.7) in 2022. That suggests that he’s capable of more efficient play than we saw this past year, though teams will want to look into why Maye took a step backward this past season. Obviously, we typically look for year-over-year improvement in prospects, and Maye taking a step back as opposed to improving as a junior could be viewed as a red flag.

North Carolina underwent a change at offensive coordinator, going from Phil Longo to Chip Lindsey in 2023. Longo’s offense was even more pass-heavy, while Lindsey made an effort to incorporate more running plays in the game plan. Longo’s offense appeared to use more passes to supplement the running game, which may have helped Maye’s efficiency numbers.

It could well be that the departure of wide receiver Josh Downs to the NFL, as well as the changes in offensive philosophy, explains Maye’s statistical step back. The team that drafts Maye will want to both talk to him and take a thorough look at the tape to see what worked better for him in 2022 and what they can incorporate into their scheme.

Game Tape

Final Word

Maye has all the tools to be a very good – even great – quarterback in the NFL.

He has the physical and athletic traits that teams look for, and also seems to have many of the mental traits as well. And in fact it’s so easy to become mesmerized by his athleticism and arm talent that comparisons to Josh Allen or Justin Herbert flow like water.

However, evaluators will need to remember that Maye isn’t that player. At least not yet.

Maye is going to be drafted very highly, almost certainly in the top 5 picks. Players drafted that highly are almost always asked to start immediately, however Maye would likely benefit from a year sitting more than some other quarterbacks in this draft class. He’s still a very young quarterback and only has a two years of starting experience. Maye needs development in the mental aspect of his game before dealing with more sophisticated defenses in the NFL. He could also benefit from coaching in his mechanics before he sees the field regularly.

He showed improvement in his footwork and mechanics from 2022 to 2023, but still reverted when he was pressured. Maye would benefit from the opportunity to engrain good habits before the speed of the professional game could reinforce bad ones.

Teams will also need to understand who he is, and who he isn’t, as a quarterback. Teams looking to run a “New West Coast” offense that features a field general who quickly distributes the ball, a la the 49ers, Rams, or Dolphins, might not get the most out of Maye.

However, teams that want to attack the defense downfield will find a lot to like in Maye’s game.

There’s certainly a bust risk with Maye, after all, no prospect is a sure thing. But there’s also a very real chance that Maye could be a star at the NFL level. He has the competitive drive to push an offense to another level and the traits to allow his teammates to play their best football.