2024 NFL Draft quarterback deep dive: J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Will McCarthy be a winner in the NFL?

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy is going to be one of the most polarizing players in the 2024 NFL Draft class.

McCarthy is very highly regarded for his football IQ and athleticism, but he’s also undersized and played in an offense that asked very little of him on a down-to-down basis. McCarthy isn’t commonly reckoned as one of the top three quarterbacks in the class. However, his tangible and intangible traits have gotten the attention of the NFL.

The New York Giants could be in search of a quarterback this year. McCarthy’s upside and potential availability outside of the first three picks could make him an intriguing option. So let’s take a look at a player some are calling one of the most challenging evaluations in this year’s draft.

Background

McCarthy was one of the most heralded quarterbacks in his recruiting class. He was rated as a 4-star recruit by ESPN, Rivals, and 24/7 Sports, and was generally considered to be the same caliber of quarterback as Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Quinn Ewers.

McCarthy received offers from across the nation, and was courted by Miami, LSU, Ohio State, Texas, and Wisconsin among many other programs. He ultimately committed to playing for Michigan, in large part because of the presence of John Harbaugh. McCarthy was well regarded for his football IQ, even as a high school recruit, and playing for a former NFL coach who runs a Pro Style system was a natural fit. For his part, Harbaugh has said that he believes McCarthy could be the best quarterback in Michigan’s history.

McCarthy’s decision play for Michigan – snubbing Ohio State in the process – was incredibly exciting for the Wolverines’ program. He was immediately embraced by the Michigan faithful and they believed (hoped) that he would be the one to finally lift them past Ohio State and into the national championship contention. McCarthy and Michigan came close in 2022, falling just short to TCU in the College Football Playoffs despite a furious comeback attempt.

Those hopes were ultimately born out, and they were the last team standing this year.

Measurables

Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 203 pounds

McCarthy has a long and lean build with a relatively slight frame, so it isn’t a surprise that he’s on the light side for his height. He’s still a young prospect at 21 years old, so he may continue to mature physically. However, it’s fair to wonder if he has much room to add mass to his frame without compromising his athleticism.

It’s worth noting that while he has a relatively narrow shoulder girdle, McCarthy does have a fairly thick lower body. He has surprising power in his legs which helps to drive his vertical passing, and also shows up in his running.

Intangibles

So much of what we focus on with quarterbacks is tangible — things like their height, weight, 40 time, or their ball velocity. However much of what makes a quarterback successful is intangible.

We can’t really measure things like mental processing, football IQ, leadership, or competitiveness, but we can see their effects.

Football IQ and mental processing

Teammates and coaches alike rave about McCarthy’s intelligence and processing, and it might be the most potent aspect of his game. He is able to effectively run Michigan’s “Pro Style” offense and execute full-field reads in addition to the usual RPO and quick-game concepts seen around the college landscape. McCarthy is able to dissect and process the defense and is aware of where his answers are at a given time. He’s rarely surprised by coverage rotations and has legitimately impressive field vision. He shows an understanding of eye discipline and how to manipulate defenses with his body language. His tape is peppered with instances of him looking off or freezing defenders in order to maximize catch windows or give his receivers open room with which to work. He smoothly moves through his read progressions and seldom seems to get “stuck” on a receiver or stare them down to clue defenders into his intentions.

Likewise, he seems to have a good understanding of Michigan’s protections and where pressure might be coming from. He navigates the pocket well and has a good sense of when to step up into the pocket and when to vacate, scramble and either run or find a check-down option.

McCarthy also has a strong internal clock and is unbothered by pressure packages. He understands when the protection allows for a free runner that’s the quarterback’s responsibility and doesn’t panic (or hold the ball) in the face of blitzes.

Leadership and toughness

Being a leader, the person on whom the rest of the team relies, seems to be incredibly important to McCarthy.

“Playing quarterback – you are – you’re supposed to be the leader, and it’s the job you take when you say you’re going to be playing quarterback,” McCarthy told Adam Biggers of Saturday Tradition. “When I made the decision to play the position that I love, I was signing up for the role that was needed to win games; the role Michael Jordan played. Kobe. Tom Brady. Russell Wilson. Pretty much every leader out there. I would consistently and constantly study them and study their mindsets …”

“I want to be the guy that everyone can count on, you know what I mean? I want to be the guy who is always consistently going to be working his butt off and always consistently in the film room. I want to be that guy, because that’s just naturally who I am.”

That’s the kind of response we’ve come to expect from top prospects and pros who are coached on dealing with the media as much as opposing defenses. But here’s the thing: That interview came in December of 2020, when McCarthy was still a high school recruit and hadn’t yet stepped on campus at Michigan.

McCarthy has talked about the importance of leadership since then as well, but it’s interesting to hear it come from the mouth of a high school kid. It probably isn’t a coincidence that teammates from every level have raved about his leadership as well.

McCarthy also seems to understand that a good leader should take accountability and shouldn’t demand anything that they wouldn’t be willing to do themselves. He told Biggers about losing the Illinois state championship his junior year of high school. But that turned out to be something of an inciting incident for him and ignited a work ethic that coaches and teammates have since referred to as “crazy”.

“It was a year ago, exactly, a couple days ago. I lost the (Illinois) state championship my junior year – and it was an embarrassing loss. Right after that, I was in extreme disappointment. But at the end of it, where I am now, I realized that was the best thing that ever happened to me – easily. Because the work ethic was kind of exposed after it … and the tenacity that I went into every workout and every football situation with since then has been just pure, trying to exceed excellence every single day.”

McCarthy reportedly engaged in a grueling schedule as a high school senior that had him working out, practicing, at a part-time job, doing school work, and working with a private QB coach from 5am to 11:30pm. It was described to Rivals.com by a teammate as “crazy”.

That speaks to his mental toughness. McCarthy’s play on the field for Michigan speaks to physical toughness that’s belied by his relatively slender build. He has a reasonable – not microscopic nor particularly high – sack rate, and is willing to hang in the pocket in order to give his receivers a chance to work open. Michigan also used McCarthy as a ball carrier on zone reads or on designed QB runs. And while his athleticism did allow him to avoid big hits and outrun defenders in the open field, he was also willing to take on contact when necessary. McCarthy learned to give himself up when he didn’t need to pick up extra yardage, but was still willing to run behind his pads to pick up a first down or dive for the pylon to score a touchdown.

Arm talent

McCarthy is best described as having a “good but not great” arm.

He has enough arm strength to make every throw that is likely to be asked of him. McCarthy is able to execute vertical throws or outside the numbers from the opposite hashmark. Likewise, he’s able to generate enough velocity to attack tight coverages in the intermediate area of the field. McCarthy isn’t simply a fastball thrower and understands how – and when – to take velocity off the ball and throw with touch or layer the ball over defenders.

McCarthy is able to make throws off-schedule and off platform, and is accurate while throwing on the move. Likewise, he’s able to reach down the field when he’s able to set his feet and generate power with his strong lower body.

However, and as mentioned above, he doesn’t have a truly “elite” arm. McCarthy can reach 60 yards downfield, but doesn’t have an arm like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes which allow them to drive the ball that far. His deepest passes can float on him and receivers often need to slow and wait for the ball to catch up with them. McCarthy can throw with a flatter trajectory, doesn’t do so on very deep passes or if there are defenders who could interfere with the pass.

McCarthy is an accurate quarterback, and has the ability to place the ball to help his receivers. He generally does a good job of putting the ball where only his receiver can make a play on it, leading receivers to the open field, or leading them away from big hits. That said, he can have a slight tendency to miss his receivers high, which can put the ball in danger of being intercepted on a tip drill. That usually happens when he either doesn’t – or isn’t able to – step into his throws. McCarthy is accurate when throwing on the move and takes the time to align his plant foot with his target, particularly when rolling to his right.

That does lead us to the most persistent issue with his technique, which is his footwork particularly when throwing to the left. McCarthy’s footwork improved over the course of 2022 and 2023, but there were still instances where he rushed and or neglected to step into his throws in close quarters. When throwing to the left, however, McCarthy has a strong tendency to not align his feet with his target and throws with a very open stance. At times his feet can be a full forty-five degrees (or more) off target. His arm is strong and elastic enough that he can still find his targets, but he isn’t as consistent or precise when throwing outside the numbers to his left.

Athleticism

Michigan is known for its strength and conditioning program, and if McCarthy didn’t add significant mass in their facilities, he’s unlikely to transform his body in the NFL. It’s (much) more likely that he will never be a physically imposing quarterback. It is

This might be something of a blessing in disguise.

His frame is part of his effectiveness as a runner. McCarthy is quick, fast, and agile as a runner with calculated fearlessness. He’s willing to take on contact but also understands that he isn’t built to bulldoze defenders. Instead, he uses his wiry frame, quickness, and agility to make subtle alterations to his path while running to force missed tackles. McCarthy is a remarkably slippery runner and is able to slip through gaps that larger ball carriers simply can’t. He has a very smooth transmission, effortlessly shifting gears and accelerating to run away from would-be tacklers.

His (relatively) strong lower body also gives him a lower center of gravity than expected from his height and allows him to survive incidental contact in the backfield or around the line of scrimmage. McCarthy has some ability to shrug off poor sack attempts, as well as an eel-like ability to wriggle out of tight situations.

He has legitimately good vision as a runner, likely related to his field vision as a passer. McCarthy is able to predict rushing lanes, as well as anticipate defenders at the second and third levels. He does a great job of finding creases and using his athleticism to exploit them.

McCarthy’s athleticism, fluidity, situational awareness, and field vision prevent him from taking big hits as a ball carrier. Teams will likely be concerned about his long-term durability given his size, however he has shown significant growth in understanding game situations and when to expose himself to risk. McCarthy is fearless when attempting to run in a touchdown or pick up a much-needed first down. However, he’s willing to slide or angle for the sideline rather than take contact if it isn’t necessary. Likewise, his athleticism allows him to manipulate his path to turn a big hit into a glancing blow.

Michigan made full use of McCarthy’s athleticism in a variety of bootleg roll-outs (to the left and right), RPO plays, zone reads, and designed quarterback runs. He was also able to use his athleticism to scramble, extend plays, improvise, and make plays off-platform or off-schedule.

Projectable stats

The use of stats and analytics is changing how we view and analyze the game of football. However, just because we have masses of data points, doesn’t mean we automatically make better decisions. Data that’s misunderstood or poorly interpreted is the same as no data at all, and distracting noise at worst.

However, there are some stats and advanced analytics that do have predictive value. Some stats, such as sack rate, are “sticky” and can follow quarterbacks from college to the NFL, as well as from team to team.

For our purposes, we’ll be looking at completion percentage, yards per game, EPA, and ESPN’s QBR. Each of those stats have a moderately-strong to strong correlation coefficient between college and the NFL. None of them are definitive, but they’re another tool that can help provide a backstop to check bias as well as confirm what we did (or didn’t) see on tape. For reference, I’ll be listing their rank among top quarterback prospects in 2023.

Yards Per Game: 206.9 (8th)
Completion Percentage: 74.3 (2nd)
EPA: 62.3 (6th)
ESPN QBR: 90.8 (3rd)
Sack Rate: 5.2 percent (4th)

The persistent criticism of McCarthy is that Michigan didn’t ask him to do much, usually coupled with the question “Why didn’t they ask more of him?”. It tends to be phrased condescendingly, but the most accurate answer is that not only does Jim Harbaugh prefer a more conservative approach to offense and Michigan didn’t really need to rely on McCarthy’s arm. They had, frankly, an absolute meat grinder of a running game and were able to play one of the closest approximations of a classic “Pro Style” offense that you’re likely to see in the modern college game.

But it’s also worth noting that when Michigan did turn to McCarthy, it was in high-leverage situations. His stats suggest a quarterback who wasn’t asked to throw often, but was efficient when he did throw. He was the second-most accurate quarterback behind Bo Nix and had the third-highest total QBR behind Jayden Daniels and Nix.

That gets more impressive when we take a step back from McCarthy’s paltry 206.9 passing yards per game. That might be the worst among this year’s top quarterback prospects, but his 9.70 yards per attempt was tied with Nix for second-most behind Jayden Daniels. His accuracy and low sack rate when looking relatively far downfield is impressive.

Game tape

Final word

A casual watching of Michigan’s offense and J.J. McCarthy’s performance in it makes it easy to dismiss him as an undersized system quarterback.

But a closer look at McCarthy’s tape, and digging into his background, reveals an impressive young man who is closer to the “field general” Jim Harbaugh describes him rather than a “game manager”.

McCarthy shows the evidence of great football IQ and mental processing, and he’s been well-regarded as a leader since high school. He has the twitchy athleticism that makes him a threat in the running game and remarkably slippery behind the line of scrimmage and in the open field. He has enough arm strength on tap to execute any throw an NFL quarterback is likely to attempt on a regular basis, takes care of the ball, and puts his receivers in position to succeed.

McCarthy, in short, has great intangibles and above average physical traits – with the exception of his build and frame. He has the traits to be drafted relatively highly just based on that.

But whichever team drafts J.J. McCarthy isn’t drafting the quarterback that he is in 2024. They’re drafting the quarterback that he can become and the young man that he is now.

The best players and biggest “hits” aren’t always the ones with the most elite traits, but often the players who are the biggest “hits” are the ones who put in the work to maximize those traits. If the wide-ranging reports regarding McCarthy’s intelligence, work ethic, and leadership are accurate, it’s a fair assumption that he will maximize his athletic traits. McCarthy isn’t the best quarterback prospect in this year’s draft class; that isn’t really a question. But his intangible traits make it fair to wonder if he can challenge to become the best quarterback to come from this class.

Because of that, McCarthy is likely to be drafted earlier than many on the outside – or those who haven’t watched him carefully – may believe.