2024 NFL mock draft: Bills chop away at pass rush in Round 1

The Bills add a high-upside player with plenty of juice in this week’s mock

Unfortunately, we’re all well aware that the Buffalo Bills suffered another early playoff exit by way of the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 AFC Divisional Round. It was a game in which the Bills’ defense offered little consistent resilience at any level of the field. Though riddled with injuries on the back seven, it was the pass rush’s failure to cause enough disruption to make a true impact against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ passing game.

The Bills are once again scheduled to pick late in the first round of the NFL Draft, in possession of pick 28 overall. Of course, at this spot, teams are typically missing out on the blue chip players of the class. But this is a very strong draft year in general at a multitude of positions. One Bills Drive may in fact find themselves in an opportune spot late in the first round within a sweet spot of potential pass rushers.

At this stage of the process, we’re looking at a pretty large sample set of players pre-NFL Scouting Combine, but let’s discuss a player who could be of interest to the Bills as a twitchy pass rusher.

We used the 2024 NFL mock draft simulator from Pro Football Focus to complete a realistic first-round mock draft. As expected, the Buffalo Bills are selecting No. 28 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.

With the 28th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select…

Chop Robinson, EDGE (Penn State)

If the Bills are willing to sacrifice some size on the edge in favor of pass-rush juice, Robinson would make a ton of sense for the organization to build across from defensive end Greg Rousseau (a very different archetype). Robinson, standing 6’3” and 254 pounds, has a build that better resembles edge rusher Von Miller. Of course, Miller has been a bit of an outlier as a strong run defender throughout his career despite living on the smaller side from a physical build perspective. Additionally, Buffalo has valued height, weight, and length over smaller, twitchy athletes. That changed some with the signing of Miller who strayed away from that philosophy. Perhaps the Bills are willing to dip their toe in those waters again with Robinson in this draft class.

Robinson, as an undersized pass rusher, embodies many of the common requisites you’re looking for in a rusher on the smaller side — twitch, first step-explosion, and ability to cause headaches with speed. He does well to clear hands off his frame with his rush and has some flexibility to flatten and gain the edge to finish plays.

If you’re looking for any knocks on Robinson’s game, size is certainly one to identify off the hoof. Robinson will also need to expand his pass-rush arsenal as simple swipes and speed will be a baseline of floor but certainly not enough for him to reach his peak.

A trend you’ll see more often with draft selections in this class than recent years is the sheer amount of transfers getting drafted. Robinson is one of those players. The former five-star recruit originally signed with Maryland out of high school in what’s being deemed as the “COVID class” of 2021. He then transferred to Penn State after just one year with the Terrapins.

Robinson boasted a 21% pass-rush win rate in 2023 despite only having four sacks to show for it. Metrics are important to note for pass rushers, as sacks don’t tell the entire story and can perhaps skew thoughts and opinions one way or the other far too often. Win rate is one of several excellent metrics to determine how often a player is affecting the game.

As it stands, the Bills currently have three defensive ends signed for 2024 — Von Miller, Greg Rousseau, and Kingsley Jonathan. This is a huge position of need especially with the questions that surround Von Miller on and off the field. On the field, Miller looked like a shell of himself coming off of ACL surgery in his mid-30s, which has (and should) spark red flags everywhere. The hope is that with a season now between Miller and the injury, he returns to form. Rousseau is a reliable presence as a versatile defensive end and is a plenty reasonable starter going into next season, while Jonathan has been a fringe roster player to this point.

The opportunity, fit, value, and need all align for Chop Robinson with the Bills at this stage in the process. Of course, the NFL Scouting Combine, free agency, and other key offseason events soon come. But Robinson is a skill set puzzle piece the organization needs with the thin reliability of Von Miller going into year three of his lucrative contract.