2024 NFL Mock Draft: Jaguars go wide receiver

With the 17th overall pick in the 2024 Bleeding Green Nation community mock draft, Jacksonville Jaguars GM dredscottroberts selects …

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

One accepted convention around the NFL Draft: never draft a player based purely on need.

This leads to another convention: plug all major roster holes before the draft so you aren’t tempted, either via free agency or a pipeline of developing young talent.

To which Trent Baalke, GM equivalent of Florida Man, simply says “hold my beer.” Because to Trent Baalke, the only thing that guarantees you aren’t reaching due to position more than having no holes in your roster is apparently having roster holes everywhere.

STATE OF THE JAGUARS

Overshadowed by the monumental collapse of the 2023 Eagles collapse was the 1-5 late-season collapse of the Jaguars. It took them from an 8-3 team on the path to a #3 or #2 seed in the playoffs and showed that they were really a middle of the road team, ending the season with a 13th-ranked offense and 17th-ranked defense (determined by points/game; yards they were 13th and 22nd, respectively). It was a rough stretch for Dougie P., who couldn’t beat a mediocre, vacation-ready Titans team in week 18 to secure a spot in the playoffs. As a result, the Jags have been passed over by the Titans as the new AFC South favorite.

Over the offseason they disastrously misplayed the FA situation of Calvin Ridley, the reclamation project-turned Lawrence’s favorite receiver, and lost him to the same division opponent who kept them out of the playoffs. Oof. They then gave a fingers-crossed contract to Gabe Davis to replace Ridley, and also signed the very good Arik Armstead and the perfectly cromulent Mitch Morse to add some talent to the DL and OL. Additionally, Baalke re-signed a number of their own from decent players (‘23 trade acquisition G Ezra Cleveland) to studs (Edge Josh Allen).

But their offseason struck the same mediocre tone that their 2023 season did. Did they do enough to field a team that can compete against the ascendent Texans, or hold off even the suddenly more competitive Colts or Titans? Probably not. The Jags find themselves with on-field concerns at CB, WR, OL, DL, LB and S. Basically any position that isn’t starting QB.

Off the field, they are dealing with an ex-employee who stole so much money it would’ve basically covered Josh Allen’s franchise tag, another ex-employee who, after being fired due to a failure to disclose his sexual offender past, hacked the team’s Jumbotron during games, and, lastly, a potential scandal in which their embattled GM went full Colangelo with burner accounts (never go full Colangelo). Even by Florida standards – panhandle Florida standards – it’s a lot.

As a result of the noise, this draft pick, as much as a draft pick can, seems to be a referendum on the team, their GM, and their ownership. Which leads me to believe that they’ll double down on the things they care about – namely, this is a capital-T Traits team. This is the team that brought you Travon Walker (2023 PFF rating: 53.9) over Aidan Hutchinson (91.0), because traits. Or drafting Devin Lloyd and Lavishka Shenault, or signing Evan Engram and Christian Kirk to what at the time was a bonkers deal for an underachieving WR. Trent Baalke seems to watch athletes and say “this dude can really be a player if he ever learns how to play” or “maybe if we pay this guy more he’ll be better than he’s been.” I know this is my pick, but I’ll give some consideration of the framework that brought the Jags to this point.

Tl;dr: The Jags need to take a big swing with this pick.

THE PICK

So as this pick approaches, the Jags are in a weird spot. With so many holes to fill, I personally would do everything I can to drop back 5 spots or so. Enough ridiculous athletes will still be available then – I’d have my eye on OT Amarius Mims out of Georgia or DL Byron MurphyII out of Texas in a trade back, both of whom have traits for days. Here, Alabama CB Terrion Arnold here is tempting for a CB room devoid of young talent… but… but…

But how could a team in need of a big swing resist the siren song that is Brian Thomas Jr., WR out of LSU? The man is 6’3”, 210lbs, and ran a 4.33 at the combine. Plus he led college football with 17 TDs in 2023; he caught 68 passes, which means he scored on exactly one in four receptions. And many of those came after designed WR screens (his ADot was 13.9, t-113th in the nation last year). It’s very tough for Baalke – who worked in the 49ers organization – to watch him run go routes, outrun everyone on the way to catching moon balls and not see DK Metcalf. That 9.97 RAS score, 10th highest amongst all 3,063 WRs since 1987, will immediately get attention. Thomas can not only run fast, he’s agile. While he can occasionally get jammed on the line of scrimmage, he has the size and athleticism to learn to get off a good press – and the NFL is moving towards schemes that can get the WRs clean releases off the LoS. And the few defensive backs that can run with him don’t have the size to contain him, especially with the new rules around tackling.

Thomas is huge and blazing fast, he tracks the ball well and is only 21. He’s got a floor of a legit deep threat who will create space in the middle for the rest of the Jaguar’s WRs, and he has the youth to develop and mature his route running. He started playing football later than most, and due to his otherworldly athleticism, he never had to develop anything other than a rather simplistic route tree. Even if he only catches deep balls from the golden arm of Trevor Lawrence (who can air it out: his 2023 Yards/Attempt was 7.1, 17th in the NFL, but his Air Yards/Attempt was 8.2, good for #8), he’ll be a force multiplier in that offense; if he never hits the full ceiling of his athletic profile, he’ll make everyone’s job easier.

Here’s a thought experiment to illustrate this: let’s examine how scouts view Malik Nabers and Jayden Daniels, two of Thomas’s teammates who will be drafted before him (And, I want to be clear, this is in no ways supposed to denigrate their ability or draft status. They’re awesome players). Daniels won the Heisman trophy and Nabers missed out on the Biletnikoff Award by 1 vote. Their success is in large part due to the fact that defenses had to take Thomas Jr. into account on every single play. Daniels is consistently lauded for throwing an exceptional deep ball, and Nabers’s ability to run after the catch is also praised. Well, Daniels is throwing to the fastest WR in college and Nabers is dodging significantly few defenders due to the attention teams have to pay to Thomas Jr. What Thomas Jr. can bring to every play only makes these great players better, in large part because the same traits that Florida Man GM loves are equally feared by defensive coordinators across the land.

And ultimately, while a great CB prospect in Terrion Arnold would be a nice addition to the team, this pick is about trying to give Trevor Lawrence everything he needs to ascend to the top tier of QBs. Brian Thomas can make life easier for everyone on that side of the ball, and, if he hits his ceiling, will considerably raise the ceiling of their offense.

2024 BGN Mock Draft Order

1) Bears (Draftjunky): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
2) Commanders (surefooted): Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
3) Patriots (niels.rosenquist): Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
4) Cardinals (eaglenomics): Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
5) Chargers (SeanEFootball): Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
6) Giants (89Tremaine) Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
7) Titans (Philly21): Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
8) Falcons (Eagles_Blitz80): Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
9) Bears (pheebthegoose): Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
10) Jets (GreenGrampa): Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
11) Vikings (The Player Formerly Known as Mousecop): J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
12) Broncos (PBARB1978): Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
13) Raiders (iam4theBirdz): Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
14) Saints (Fly Like An Eagle): Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
15) Colts (J. Wil): Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
16) Seahawks (Phreezy E): Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
17) Jaguars (dredscottroberts): WR Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
18) Bengals (grantspectations)
19) Rams (Nolo0oo)
20) Steelers (Dr.MidnightGreen)
21) Dolphins (Neil Dutton)
22) Eagles (ablesser88)
23) Vikings (RabidPanda13)
24) Cowboys (Elliptical Man)
25) Packers (LeFire)
26) Buccaneers (FlJoe)
27) Cardinals (green1us)
28) Bills (Leo Bedio)
29) Lions (MrOilman)
30) Ravens (LancGuy)
31) 49ers (SakPrescott)
32) Chiefs (Hoosinole)

Now it’s time for you to vote for who YOU think should be selected in the 2024 BGN Community Consensus Mock Draft.

1) Bears: QB Caleb Williams
2) Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels
3) Patriots: QB Drake Maye
4) Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
5) Chargers: WR Malik Nabers
6) Giants: WR Rome Odunze
7) Titans: OT Joe Alt
8) Falcons: EDGE Dallas Turner
9) Bears: OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu
10) Jets: TE Brock Bowers
11) Vikings: QB J.J. McCarthy
12) Broncos: QB Bo Nix
13) Raiders: OT Taliese Fuaga
14) Saints: OT Troy Fautanu
15) Colts: CB Quinyon Mitchell
16) Seahawks: DT Byron Murphy
17) Jaguars: