4 things I think on the eve of NFL free agency

Will Rams make a splash in the opening days of free agency?

The legal tampering period of NFL free agency kicks off on Monday. Within minutes of the window opening at 9am pacific time news will break of players that have already agreed to terms with new teams and some of the biggest dominoes of the 2024 offseason will fall into place.

Will the Los Angeles Rams be part of the early free agency frenzy, or will they be patient and turn an eye towards the draft? The Rams are hoping to return to the playoffs this year, though expectations will be set higher this year. An opening round exit won’t cut it in 2024.

On the eve of free agency, these are four things I think about the Rams:

1 – Rams will make a splash at edge rusher

Even with breakout rookie seasons by Puka Nacua, Kobie Turner, and Bryon Young, Los Angeles’ contention window may be short-lived based on Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, and Cooper Kupp being in late stages of their respective careers. There’s one glaring hole in the Rams’ roster and that’s OLB opposite Young, and I don’t see Les Snead and Sean McVay moving into the regular season without that need addressed in a big way. LA may not have the benefit of waiting until the draft to make a move, as they need someone who can make an instant impact.

Will the Rams sign Danielle Hunter, who would be electric as a pass rusher next to Donald and a solid complement to Young? It seems unlikely that LA would make a play for Bryce Huff, Josh Uche, Chase Young, or Jonathan Greenard.

If the Rams don’t secure Hunter, a trade for a proven veteran likely makes more sense for them—whether that’s Brian Burns, Joey Bosa, or Khalil Mack. I don’t see them standing pat at edge rusher this year, though it remains to be seen who they feel is the best answer.

2 – There are short-term answers at corner

It’s important to keep in mind every year when free agency rolls around that ascending players without significant flaws rarely make it to the open market. The Chicago Bears worked out a long-term deal with Jaylon Johnson and the Kansas City Chiefs tagged L’Jarius Sneed as they work the phones to find a trade partner for him. That took the top two players off the market before the bell even rang, and we’re left with older veterans who their current teams decided weren’t in their future plans.

Still, there are some capable starters that will be available—and signing them makes sense if you don’t overspend and keep the financial commitment relatively short-term. Don’t tie yourself to one of these older corners for more than two seasons, and draft early in order to hedge your bet.

I could see the Rams signing someone like Kendall Fuller, who has experience with Sean McVay. He might be the top corner on the market this year and a marriage makes sense if the deal represents the middle class at position. I also like Adoree Jackson as a backup plan.

Either way, the Rams need at least one new starting outside corner and they desperately need someone with size and height.

3 – It’s difficult to see the Rams getting worse in free agency

For years we’ve seen LA take a passive approach to its own free agents and reap the benefits of compensatory picks. That may be changing this year as the Rams spend less on outside veterans (free agency or trades) and transition to a new era of their roster build. They’ve already secured their top free agent for this year, signing RG Kevin Dotson to a new three-year contract. The Rams have made tough decisions on three of their defensive restricted free agents while placing a tender on LT Alaric Jackson. Even if Michael Hoecht, Jonah Williams, and/or Christian Rozeboom sign elsewhere, the Rams will have chances to replace them.

As far as the unrestricted free agents go, it will be tough to watch Jordan Fuller leave for greener pastures; however, the Rams will have plenty of options in a saturated safety market. Signing Ahkello Witherspoon ahead of his resurgent year was a good story, but LA needs better play at outside corner.

The one potential loss that scares me is center Coleman Shelton, who voided his contract. While Shelton isn’t a perfect starter by any means, the Rams could certainly do a lot worse. Will they bring him back or look for more value at center?

4 – It’s telling if Rams don’t restructure Kupp, Stafford

If the Rams want to be aggressive this offseason, they can open up more cap space by restructuring the deals of Cooper Kupp or Matthew Stafford. This prorates money over the remainder of their contracts, which effectively makes it more difficult for the team to move on in future years.

If LA can get through this offseason without touching the structure of Kupp or Stafford’s deals, then that tells us the team wants to hold on to as much flexibility as possible for future offseasons. It would also suggest that the Rams don’t consider themselves tied to Kupp or Stafford long-term, and that could tip the team’s hand ahead of the draft.

If Stafford’s deal remains unchanged, then I think the probability the Rams take a quarterback early in the draft increases. Could LA make a play for Michigan’s JJ McCarthy or look towards the next tier of quarterback with Bo Nix, Michael Penix, Spencer Rattler, or Michael Pratt?