A BPA-Free Draft?

After the addition of Odell Beckham Jr., the Ravens’ path with the #22 overall pick suddenly became extremely cloudy. Before OBJ’s deal, the majority of fans and analysts would agree that the team needed to address the wide receiver position in the first round, whether it be through Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison or even if Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Quentin Johnson were to slip out of the top 20. There is definitely a solid pool of pass-catching talent, which might be enough to entice Eric DeCosta to take a chance on a third first-round WR in five years.

The Beckham contract and lack of draft capital certainly change things.

The Ravens can no longer afford to make a big investment in just one position group, or expend a precious high draft pick on a low-floor, high-ceiling type of player. After going on the clock at 22, DeCosta will have to watch 64 prospects drop off the board until the team’s next selection in the third round.

Four glaring needs surround this team: another WR, CB, OLB, and QB. One could make an argument that DL is a need, as well, but the coaching staff seems confident that Justin Madubuike, Travis Jones, and Broderick Washington will step up to fill the void presented by Calais Campbell’s departure.

Recognizing this, the Ravens may need to abandon their strategy of taking the best player available at any given time. So, could this draft really be “BPA-Free”? Let’s examine what the team does with its first overall selection… and, more importantly, the potential aftermath of their decision. As I see it, there are three routes the front office can take, and I’ll go through them here.

Route 1: More WR Investment

By looking at the crop of pass-catching talent by the time pick #22 rolls around, DeCosta and crew again decide to further invest in wide receiver via a first round selection. Reasonably speaking, there is a good chance that both USC’s Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers out of Boston College are still available. If this were to be the case, I’m fairly confident that the Ravens would choose Addison. Overall, he’s considered to be a much more polished route-runner, has had success in both the ACC and Pac-12, and is coincidentally a Baltimore native. He took a top-30 pre-draft visit to the Under Armour Performance Center fairly early on in the process, indicating that the team had great interest in him playing at M&T on Sundays. Flowers, on the other hand, did not visit the Ravens until a few days ago.

RSR Roundtable Rankings – Day 2 WR & CB

If the board were to fall this way, Eric DeCosta would almost certainly take a corner in the third round. Maryland’s Jakorian Bennet had a solid season last year, logging 2 picks alongside 11 PD’s. At 5-11, 200 pounds, he’s slightly on the smaller side, but his skill set could translate to that of a serviceable CB2 or CB3 in the NFL.

The Ravens have one selection in the 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds, and I’m sure they’ll revert to BPA in each of the latter two. However, DeCosta will likely try to address either quarterback or outside linebacker with the team’s 4th-round pick, and the perfect prospect might just fall into his lap. UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) had a career year last season, completing 69.3% of his passes for 3,169 yards (8.3 yards per attempt) and scoring 27 touchdowns through the air versus 10 interceptions. Notably, he put up 645 rushing yards last year at 5.5 yards a clip, as well as scoring an impressive 12 touchdowns with his legs. He did not fumble once during his collegiate career, all of which was spent with the Bruins. The Pac-12 product is of solid size, officially marked at 6-1, 205 pounds.

By deciding to take this route, here’s how the rest of the Ravens’ offseason could shake out:

Draft

• R1, #22: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
• R3, #86: Jakorian Bennet, CB, Maryland
• R4, #124: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB, UCLA
• R5, #157: Best Player Available
• R6, #199: Best Player Available

Free Agency

• Sign Rock Ya-Sin (CB, Colts) to a two-year contract
• Sign Justin Houston (OLB, Ravens) to a one-year contract

Route 2: Marcus Peters’ Successor

It’s entirely possible that the Ravens forgo offense in the first round, likely leading them to home in on a first round corner. Two prospects who continue to go in the early 20’s in various mock drafts are Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr. and another hometown prospect in Deonte Banks out of Maryland. Banks is regarded overall as a more physical player than Porter, and his style of play is quite similar to that of Marlon Humphrey. While he only logged one interception last season, his film shows very tight coverage on all routes, and opposing teams were hesitant to throw his way. While he isn’t regarded as a plug-and-play CB1 or instant superstar, Banks has all of the tools necessary to develop into a threat at starting corner and will at least serve as a nice complement to Humphrey.

Unimpressed with the board at #86, particularly with the depth of pass-catchers available, the Ravens actually trade their third-round pick in this scenario. They ship this selection, included in a package with a 2024 third-rounder, to Arizona in exchange for WR DeAndre Hopkins and a 2024 fourth-round pick. Hopkins could truly take the pass-catching corps to the next level, and the price tag wouldn’t be too extreme due to the Cardinals’ need to offload some salary.

Just as in Route 1, the team still takes Thompson-Robinson in the fourth round and selects the best players available to them in the fifth and sixth rounds, respectively.

Draft

• R1, #22: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
• R4, #124: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB, UCLA
• R5, #157: Best Player Available
• R6, #199: Best Player Available

Trades

• With Cardinals
  • BAL Receives: WR DeAndre Hopkins, 2024 fourth-round pick
  • ARI Receives: #86 overall, 2024 third-round pick

Free Agency

• Sign Justin Houston (OLB, Ravens) to a one-year contract

Route 3: Trade Back

The best scenario for the Ravens in this draft may honestly be to trade back. The perfect partner waits for them, a team that they’ve always been open to doing business with: the Philadelphia Eagles. Philly has been enamored with phenom Texas running back Bijan Robinson, a prospect whom draft experts are calling the best player in the class. The only reason that he is projected to fall is his position; in the modern NFL, running backs have been traditionally undervalued throughout the draft process, with teams wary to invest high draft capital in them.

There is reason to believe, however, that Robinson is just different. And that belief may entice the Eagles to move up, should he still be on the board at #22. Too, what Philadelphia has to offer could warrant a move backwards for the Ravens, a way to improve the overall value of their draft capital. EDC could reasonably take the #30 pick and Philly’s second round selection in exchange for selections #22 and a 2024 third round pick.

Taking this deal could mean a variety of good things for the Ravens. With the Eagles’ first rounder, they could select a Peters replacement in Emmanuel Forbes, who is the epitome of a great playmaking cornerback. In the SEC last year with Mississippi State, Forbes recorded an FBS-leading six interceptions, and returned half of those for touchdowns. While he isn’t as physical as Banks or Porter, his skillset could serve as the perfect complement to Humphrey. Projected to go in the late first or early second round, Forbes could be the perfect prospect for the Ravens.

Additionally, DeCosta would still have an opportunity to address other positions of need. There is a very good chance that WR Nathaniel “Tank” Dell out of Houston will still be on the board towards the end of Round 2. Dell is a WR3/WR2 type of guy, which is exactly what the Ravens need. With their third-round pick, I wouldn’t be surprised to see DeCosta select a running back, such as Tank Bigsby out of Auburn. Bigsby is a truly bruising back who will run over anyone and everyone in his sight. More importantly, however, adding him would better prepare the team for the eventual departure of Gus Edwards; both have very similar skill sets. Just as in the other routes, there is still a very high chance that the Ravens go quarterback in Round 4, again taking Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Here’s how this scenario could shake out:

Draft

• R1, #31: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
• R2, #62: Nathaniel Dell, WR, Houston
• R3, #86: Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn
• R4, #124: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB, UCLA
• R5, #157: Best Player Available
• R6, #199: Best Player Available

Trade

• With Eagles
  • BAL Receives: #30 overall pick, #62 overall pick.
  • PHI Receives: #22 overall pick, 2024 third-round pick.

Free Agency

• Sign Justin Houston (OLB, Ravens) to a one-year contract

Suspense is Building…

Truly, the suspense that surrounds each team in the NFL Draft is what makes the event spectacular. There’s so much that’s unknown heading into Thursday, especially with a team like the Ravens. DeCosta doesn’t really have room to use a high draft pick on a BPA talent, which could force the team to focus on fulfilling its true needs.

Whatever happens, the Flock has learned to trust the process.

But, with that being said, let’s be grateful that we can enjoy one of the greatest events in pro sports… in a hopefully stress-free night for the Ravens.

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