A way too early look at what the Steelers QB room might look like in 2025

Exploring the potential range of outcomes in the Russell Wilson-Justin Fields experiment…

“Have the Steelers found their answer at quarterback?”

Buckle in, folks. You’ll hear versions of that question ad nauseam during the 2024 season. Whether it’s network TV, your local radio station or your favorite Steelers community site, the Steelers’ quarterback situation will dominate conversations around the team.

After making significant changes at the most important position, the Steelers find themselves at a crossroads. Time will tell if Pittsburgh has found its long-term solution or if they’re embodying John Madden’s famous observation: “If you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none.”

What we’ll aim to do here today is to try our best Dr. Strange impression as we outline all the potential paths ahead. What options do the Steelers have if one of their new quarterbacks demonstrates they should be signed on a longer deal? And what else is out there if neither do?

How did the Steelers get here?

The first domino fell when Pittsburgh signed Russell Wilson. While he may not have the same shine he did two years ago, Wilson’s signing still sent a clear message from the organization. The Steelers were no longer certain Kenny Pickett was the answer to the question: Do the Steelers have their guy at quarterback?

That move alone would likely have generated a season’s worth of headlines and placed Pickett in a similar situation to what Zach Wilson recently experienced with the Jets. The Steelers weren’t done, however, and they made their view of Pickett crystal clear when they traded him across state to Philadelphia.

If that had been all they’d done, any speculation would have evaporated. Kyle Allen would likely still have been brought on and the Steelers would have found a veteran or drafted a rookie to compete with him for the second quarterback spot.

Instead, they traded for Justin Fields.

Much like Wilson, Fields comes with his own baggage and questions about his place in the league. Interestingly enough, Fields compared his own play style to Wilson’s when he was first introduced to the Chigaco fanbase.

Publicly, Wilson has said the right things, even expressing excitement about teaming up with Fields. However, this is a quarterback-driven league, and it took less than an hour after the news of the Fields trade broke for the speculation machine to get up and running at full force.

Let’s not pretend to know Dulac’s sources or their credibility. There’s no doubt he is accurately reporting what his sources are telling him. However, as fans and media consumers, it’s not unreasonable to question the motivation and timing behind that nugget of information — especially when a source remains confidential. While there’s no way to know for certain, it would probably be a safe bet that this came from someone in Wilson’s camp or someone within the Steelers organization who has a personal investment in seeing specifically Wilson succeed.

Whichever quarterback you prefer to be Pittsburgh’s starter likely says just as much about you and what you value most from the position as it does about either player.

Wilson brings a prolific resume and the wisdom of experience, but also the doubts that follow an athlete trying to age gracefully in an unforgiving sport. Fields provides the optimism of youth but also carries with him the uncertainty of unmet potential. Both players are capable of creating exciting plays on the field, but both were also available this offseason for a reason.

For both quarterbacks, the 2024 season should be treated as one long tryout.

Russell Wilson

Photo by Christopher Polk/Billboard via Getty Images

Of the two quarterbacks in play for the Steelers, Russell Wilson is the most in control of his destiny at this moment.

When given the opportunity to clarify the Steelers’ intentions at quarterback, head coach Mike Tomlin had praise for both players. Rather than declaring Wilson the starter, Tomlin instead said Wilson had “pole position” and that Fields “will be given an opportunity that shows his capabilities.”

While interpreting Tomlinisms could serve as its own college course, my read on his statements is the job is Wilson’s to lose. The team should be open to Fields winning the job, but they intend to give Wilson the first crack at it.

A couple of other factors are in Wilson’s favor.

For starters, Wilson was reportedly recruited by Cam Heyward, T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, meaning he currently has the backing of his peers. That obviously shouldn’t be the only factor considered, but fans often underestimate how important interpersonal relationships are to a team.

Secondly, the terms of the Steelers trade agreement with the Bears may incentivize the Steelers to be patient in moving off of Wilson. If Fields plays 51 percent or more of the team’s snaps next season, the sixth-round pick Pittsburgh sent Chicago become a fourth. Again, that shouldn’t be enough of a reason to prevent Fields from starting if he wins a camp battle, but if the battle is close I wouldn’t be shocked to see Wilson get a long leash at the start of the season.

At the same time, Wilson has the most on the line this season. Wilson will turn 36 this November and is now starting for his third team. A misstep in Pittsburgh will likely spell the end of his days as a starter in the league.

If Fields beats him out in camp or overtakes him during the season, the Steelers’ path forward with Wilson is simple. They can offer him a backup quarterback’s salary to return or wish him well as he looks for another job. The same scenario applies were Wilson to miss significant time due to injury, though he’s been remarkably durable thus far in his career.

Things get more interesting if Wilson wins and holds the job for the whole season. Any extension would then depend on what the Steelers view as a successful outcome for both Wilson and the team in 2024.

The Steelers famously have not won a playoff game since 2016. While I don’t consider wins to be a quarterback stat, any talks of extending Wilson will start and end there. If the Steelers miss the playoffs, Wilson won’t be back. If the Steelers offense is middling during the season and they make another quick playoff exit, Wilson should be gone. Barring a playoff run, the only path to a Wilson extension that I see would depend on him keeping turnovers to a minimum and the Steelers offense ranking in the top half of the league in scoring and efficiency.

That may sound harsh, but when you consider Pittsburgh has yet to win a playoff game with Watt and Fitzpatrick on the roster, it makes little sense for the team to invest in a quarterback as old as he is if the results aren’t immediate and obvious. Pittsburgh can’t afford to waste any more years of their star players’ primes.

But if things go well for Wilson, what would a second contract look like for him?

The Steelers were able to afford him this season because Denver is paying him $39 million. That won’t be the case in 2025. If Wilson plays well enough to earn a new contract, it’s unlikely he will accept another deal near the veteran minimum.

My best guess is the Steelers would need to offer up a deal somewhere in the ballpark of two or three years for somewhere between $30-40 million a year with a reasonable out for the team after 2025. Again, Wilson is quickly approaching 40. If he can regain his old form, he offers the Steelers a competitive window, but we have to be realistic about how much longer Wilson has left in his career.

Justin Fields

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Whether Fields wins the starting job this summer or not, I believe there are more avenues for him to remain in Pittsburgh than there are for Wilson. Fair or not, that’s the benefit Fields’ age (25) and 4.4-speed give him over Wilson.

The Steelers have yet to announce their decision on Fields’ fifth-year option and will have to do so by May 2. Conventional wisdom suggests they will decline to do so. The Steelers would be on the hook for roughly $25 million in 2025 if they were to pick up Fields’ option. That’s pretty reasonable for a starter in the current quarterback market, but hard to commit to a guy who has yet to take a single snap with the team and is currently viewed as the backup. It would also all but announce the team plans to move forward with Fields starting no later than next year, and would make any “competition” with Wilson a farce. I don’t think the Steelers would paint themselves into that awkward of a corner.

Tom Fox recently detailed a reasonable way for the Steelers to approach a new contract with Fields that’s worth checking out. An alternative could also be giving Fields a contract extension similar to what Green Bay gave Jordan Love last year.

Prior to last season, Love had not played much for the Packers during his time on the team. Rather than pick up his option, Green Bay opted to give him a one-year extension with performance escalators instead. Doing so allowed them to push negotiations for a longer contract another year so they could evaluate how Love looked as a starter. It also gave them a dead cap number they could live with had Love flopped in 2023, at a much cheaper rate than his option would have cost. Love has a cap hit of $12.75 million this year and thanks to how he looked in the playoffs, he should have a new contract before the summer is out.

This would be an ideal scenario for the Steelers, if they could replicate it. Doing so would take pressure off both Fields and the Steelers this year.

If the Steelers turn down Fields’ option and decide to ride out the year without an extension in place, any future negotiations will ride heavily on this season for Fields.

It seems most likely that there are four major paths that the Steelers quarterback room could take in 2024:

— Path One: Fields wins the job outright in the summer. If he plays well and the Steelers make playoffs and/or show obvious improvement as an offense, long-term contract negotiations will begin. If he flops, the team will head back to the drawing board next offseason. Wilson, having lost out in the summer, is also out the door.

— Path Two: Wilson wins/maintains the starting role to start the season, but Fields takes over due to injury or poor performance. Depending on when Fields takes over in the scenario, he may or may not have put enough on tape for the Steelers to feel confident in extending or moving on. This path is the most likely one and could produce the widest range of outcomes.

— Path Three: Fields never sees the starting lineup. In this scenario, Wilson has the team in the playoff hunt the entire season and is not playing poorly enough to pull from the lineup. Depending on how the Steelers feel about Wilson’s performance, this could spell the end of Fields time as a Steeler or lead to a team-friendly deal. It’s hard to see Pittsburgh bending over backwards to keep him if they believe Wilson still gives them the best chance to win.

— Path Four: Fields gets hurt before the team can accurately evaluate him. In this scenario, it’s hard to see them giving him a long-term deal, but perhaps a one-year deal could still be in play.

If the Steelers and their fans are being honest with themselves, Justin Fields earning the starting job is Pittsburgh’s ideal outcome. Whether or not he’s up to the task remains to be seen, but a young, uber-athletic quarterback in his mid-twenties provides the most upside and a longer competitive window.

What if the Steelers’ 2025 QB isn’t on the roster?

Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images

If neither Fields nor Wilson proves up for the task, finding the next guy at quarterback will not be a cheap endeavor. Pittsburgh would once again have to look toward other options via free agency, trade or the draft.

Let’s start with the draft. While it’s true that much could change in a year, the early reviews for the potential 2025 QB class are far from glowing. Take a look at the top names right now.

While some of those prospects were highly recruited out of high school, it’s hard to say any have done much thus far to cement themselves as future first-round picks. It’s possible the Steelers find themselves in the exact same scenario they were when they selected Kenny Pickett. And even if a prospect or two breaks out and climbs the draft rankings, will the Steelers be bad enough to be in a position to select them without needing a massive trade? Unlikely.

So that takes us to free agency. Guys like Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa will likely sign extensions with their teams this summer or face getting franchised tagged in 2025. Nothing’s impossible, but they are not likely to be available and they wouldn’t come cheap if they were.

The same could be said about Dak Prescott and Jared Goff. Prescott would be the marquee name in free agency, but would the Steelers be able to compete for his services? It’s widely believed Prescott’s new deal will reset the quarterback market and potentially earn $60 million a year. Goff would be a cheaper option, but not by much and he’s likely to resign with Detroit before this upcoming summer is over.

After those guys, things get a lot bleaker. Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett and Jimmy Garoppolo are players Pittsburgh passed on this year and likely would again. There of course could be players like Geno Smith available if he were to be released or traded, but that would be comparable to bringing Wilson in this year.

The trade market wouldn’t be much better. Perhaps one of the quarterbacks from the 2023 draft class will have worn out their welcome with their current team, but is that any better than the situation the Steelers currently have with Fields?

What do you think? Do either Wilson or Fields provide the best future for the Steelers? Is Pittsburgh’s future franchise quarterback even currently on the roster? If not, who could they have their eye on next offseason? Let us know in the comments!