An In-Depth Look At Bucs Offense vs. Bills Defense

The Bucs struggled to get points despite some encouraging signs in the first half of their Thursday Night Football matchup against the Bills. Would halftime adjustments help unlock a new gear? Not really.

Bucs’ Drive Seven

The Bucs entered the second half down 17-10, but by the time they got the ball for the first time they were trailing by 14. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales opened the first drive of the second half with a play action call with a “Wolf” route combination designation (the slot receiver running a deep corner route over a short out from the outside receiver). The call would have produced an open receiver between tight end Payne Durham and receiver Mike Evans putting vertical stress on cornerback Dane Jackson.

But Bucs tight end Cade Otton missed his split zone block allowing defensive end Leonard Floyd to get to Baker Mayfield before he had a chance to set to run through his progression. Mayfield was able to escape the pressure from Floyd by hitting the spin button and scrambling forward for 11 yards.

#GoBucs have had mixed results with counter this year, mainly due to struggles from Otton as the second puller not sealing well. Here they bypass the 2nd puller for a successful run (15 yds) also kudos to Otton on the finishing block from the backside. pic.twitter.com/Th9JmNkjaK

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 29, 2023

The next play Canales leaned back into the first down run that was so prevalent in his first half strategy, but poor blocking from left guard Aaron Stinnie and center Robert Hainsey stalled the run to just a 2-yard gain. The follow-up play was a mid-zone run with a potentially fantastic backside crease, but right guard Cody Mauch was unable to time up his climb to the second-level defender and running back Rachaad White did everything he could to get a small 3-yard gain out of the play.

On third-and-5 the Bucs had a good play-call dialed up to beat man coverage which got Trey Palmer open on a slant/stop with Otton providing cover, but Mayfield didn’t trust that both his tackles would run their edge rushers up the arc and keep him clean in the pocket. He bailed from a clean pocket and was only able to gain two yards on the scramble.

Major Success/Failure Points: Blocking ruined the design of 3/4 of the plays called. Baker giveth (11-yard scramble) and Baker taketh away (poor pocket awareness on the key third down play).

Bucs’ Drive Eight

This drive (and the next) was always going to be low probability chances of being scoring drives thanks to the excellent field-position game Bills head coach Sean McDermott and his punt unit backing the Bucs inside their own 5-yard line. However, the goal for Canales and crew should have been to get enough yards to even that field-position advantage.

To lead off the drive the Bucs handed off to Chase Edmonds for a gain of two yards to get to their own 5-yard line. On second down the Bucs once again handed off to Edmonds and he gained one yard when he could have gained an explosive…

Is it too early in the morning for maddening clips of Bucs RBs?

Chase Edmunds giving me Lenny flashbacks lol. whadda ya doin man… pic.twitter.com/EbTZGkYQMl

— Jon Ledyard (@LedyardNFLDraft) October 28, 2023

Now third-and-7 from their own 6 instead of first-and-10 from midfield (or much, much better), Mayfield hit Chris Godwin over the middle on a slant/stop for six yards. Based on how the routes developed and the type of throw Mayfield made there is a chance he was trying to target Otton on a deep dig over the top of Godwin.

It could have gone for a first down, but (and this is just my opinion) Mayfield through too early, before Otton could get into his cut and clear Godwin’s route. Perhaps Mayfield released too early because he felt pressure from the pass rush or Otton was too late stemming his route, but the result was a catch short of the sticks and a punt.

Major Success/Failure Points: Man, that Edmonds second down run … what could have been.

Bucs’ Drive Nine

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Another great punt from Buffalo once again forced the Bucs to start inside their own 5 early in the fourth quarter. Canales elected to pass on first down, but this one of the very few plays in the game where there were legitimately no open receivers and right guard Aaron Stinnie lost in pass protection leading to an almost safety.

Mayfield did a great job to avoid taking the sack and getting the ball out for an incompletion. Mayfield followed that up with a 6-yard scramble to set up third-and-4. On the money down Baker went to the ATM and found out he was over withdrawn.

On rewatch I was more impressed with Baker than watching live, but these are the plays that he is missing. Godwin is 2 in the progression and he’s just late to get to it. Throws to CG on 3rd hitch instead of 2nd. Made all the diff. in the world. pic.twitter.com/PlGzStHi4U

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 30, 2023

Major Success/Failure Points: O-line play doomed first down and Baker’s hesitation doomed third down.

Bucs’ Drive 10

With 10 minutes remaining in the game and still trailing by two touchdowns the Bucs desperately needed a quick touchdown drive. They would get anything but. Buffalo was once again able to back the Bucs up on their own 8-yard line.

Self-inflicted wounds that plagued the Bucs all game long started the drive off on a bad note with a Luke Goedeke false start. On first-and-14 from the 4 Mayfield delivered a great throw but Trey Palmer couldn’t hold on to the pass forcing second-and-14. On the next play Godwin and Evans took all four Cover 4 defenders vertically and left the underneath clear for Palmer on a quick hitch.

Being on the backside of the play concept Baker never saw Palmer but was able to find White on a checkdown. White took the pass and scampered up field for a 20-yard gain. With a new set of downs Baker found Evans for a 42-yard gain on a deep crosser. The play design was great as Evans was wide open for a big catch plus run, but a Cody Mauch holding penalty erased the forward movement and debited the team another 10 yards. That play would be a backbreaker in terms of time lost.

Now having to navigate first-and-20 from their own 14 the Bucs went back to a successful play design for the game: a screen. Mayfield got the ball to Edmonds in the flat and with center Robert Hainsey out in front as a lead blocker Edmonds got almost all of the penalty yards back. The next play had Baker find Edmonds again for seven yards after pressure allowed by Stinnie caused him to have to re-navigate the pocket and check down.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

With third down looming and four yards needed to keep the drive alive Baker found White as a checkdown outlet for another nine yards. If he had waited just another beat, he would have had Otton coming open on an intermediate dig for additional yards, but I understand the urge to get the first down. However, the other side of that coin is down two scores this late in the game you have to be willing to push the ball down the field more. Buffalo was protecting the deep part of the field, but there were openings in the intermediate such as this Mayfield could have tried to access.

Three straight short outs got the Bucs to Rakim Jarrett, Cade Otton and Palmer got the Bucs to the Buffalo 40. The hit to Jarrett was a late read in the progression, but the throws to Otton and Palmer were designed. Again, quick short gains to secondary receiving options when bigger chunk plays were needed.

Was Canales/Mayfield looking for play calls because pass protection was starting to break down more? Throughout most of the game play concepts allowed for reasonable route concepts to have these receivers to get looks, but this is the time in the game where the option to press down field with your two big time receivers and let them make contested catches is necessary.

Mayfield took a sack on the next play because Mauch allowed Tim Settle to cross his face and delay the QB from moving through his progressions. The Bills sent a six-man blitz on the next play and while the Bucs picked it up well enough to allow Mayfield to throw hot, he got gun shy and ran into a sack for a one-yard loss. Mayfield would miss Godwin on an out rout on fourth down, but an illegal contact penalty against the Bills gave the Bucs renewed life.

All of these plays and the Bucs were running 1st and 10 from the Buffalo 41 with 4:07 left in the game. Mayfield finally tried to attack the intermediate part of the field finding tight end Payne Durham over the middle on a seam post. Durham let his quarterback down though by slipping before his break and dropping a ball put right on his numbers.

On second-and-10 the Bills bracketed both Godwin and Evans forcing Mayfield to check down to Otton for just two yards. Mayfield correctly identified Jarrett as open on an intermediate curl on third down but was hit as he threw after stepping up into the pocket, so the ball fell harmlessly to the ground incomplete. Now faced with a fourth down that they had to have the Bucs also had to contend with a six-man pressure the Bills sent to further complicate things.

While the blitz was initially picked up well Mayfield felt elected to start to bail from the pocket. It may have been for the best as Mauch got bulldozed to the ground shortly thereafter. Ultimately, Mayfield ran into the awaiting arms of Jordan Phillips who brought him down for a sack. But the Bucs were once again gifted a new first down on what should have been a drive-ending fourth down failure as Phillips got hit with a facemask penalty.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

Mayfield would elect to push downfield on the next play trying to find Evans in the back of the end zone on a well thrown ball that he placed in a perfect spot. Evans was unable to latch on to it though as it felt incomplete. Otton was unable to catch the next pass across the middle setting up yet another 3rd down. Mayfield was late on the next throw (an out to the sticks for Godwin) putting the Bucs once again in fourth-and-long.

Mayfield found Evans on a deep cross and attempted to layer the throw under a defender running with Palmer over the top of Evans and his man. The ball deflected off of Christian Benford’s helmet, but Evans displayed incredible concentration to still catch the ball for a touchdown.

On the ensuing two-point attempt the Bills had the Bucs’ play concept well defended forcing Mayfield to attempt a throw over the middle into heavy traffic to Otton. The ball was deflected at the line, but Otton showed incredible concentration of his own to find the deflected pass to convert the attempt.

Major Success/Failure Points: It’s honestly incredible the Bucs scored here. The drive featured a litany of negatives from a process standpoint. Multiple penalties. Dropped passes. Play-calling was confusing at times as the team needed chunk plays but there were multiple plays that were designed for short gains.

Mayfield likewise looked for short underneath options rather than pressing the issue with intermediate-to-deep shots. Pass protection broke down at times and Baker had trouble at others navigating the pocket well. But the Mauch penalty was the real killer. While agree with many that the call itself may have been suspect, Mauch has to learn to let go when the defender starts to fall to the ground or, like it or not, he will get called for it every time.

Awesome play design gets 42 yds. Whole thing negated by a Mauch holding call. It would take the #Bucs 13(!) plays and 5:43 of game clock 2 get those yards back. Absolute killer. The amount of drives the Bucs have lost 2 penalties is absurd. T-3rd in the NFL in OFF penalties (27). pic.twitter.com/6F9pITTSdE

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 30, 2023

Drive 11

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

With just 21 seconds left on the clock, no timeouts, and needing 80 yards for the game-tying touchdown the Bucs elected to put themselves in better position to execute a Hail Mary pass into the end zone by completing three shorter passes to the sidelines where receivers could get out of bounds to stop the clock. The second of those two plays almost proved disastrous as right tackle Luke Goedeke lost his block and Mayfield was nearly sacked.

As he has done for much of the season Mayfield was able to keep his feet under him, scramble and find an outlet receiver in Rachaad White for five yards before getting out of bounds. The Bucs got another five yards on a Vonn Miller offsides penalty before the final play of the game was executed.

For the Hail Mary attempt Mayfield was able to avoid pressure and put himself in position to step into his throw delivering a perfect pass for his downfield receivers to make a play on. With both Cade Otton and Mike Evans being held the pass unfortunately fell to the ground incomplete.

What’s Wrong With The Bucs’ Offense

There are several factors that contribute to the Bucs offensive woes right now. Looking through both the first and second half here is my assessment of what’s preventing the offense from scoring more:

• Penalties have killed so many drives this year. The Bucs are third in the NFL in offensive penalties this year with 27.
• Run Game
  • When to run – First-down play choices are continually putting this team behind schedule. For the season in neutral, non-garbage-time situations outside of the two-minute warning the Bucs success rate when they pass goes up 14% over when they run. Through the TNF game the Bucs were 27th in first down run rate in neutral situations on the year.
  • Inconsistent blocking from IOL and TE’s. Otton is a net negative and has single handedly caused dozens of runs to go for significantly less yardage than it should. While center Robert Hainsey has played better of late, he struggles with powerful nose tackles in a scheme that calls for him to make solo blocks in a zone system. Mauch is still learning how to play guard and is off with his timing/footwork too often. This will only improve with additional play-time.
• Drops – Receiver drops have cost the team in critical moments time and again.
• Coaching decision-making. While Bowles has shown improvements in his in-game decision making, that end of first-half performance was not it.
• Quarterback play. Mayfield has never been an accurate passer and that trend continues this year. His adjusted completion percentage is 20th in the NFL among qualified starters. He has a negative big time throw to turnover-worthy play rate. He has shown at times this season that he has a high ceiling of play and has perhaps unlocked a new skill he previously did not display consistently in his escapability, but he is a very high variance player who has not shown the ability to consistently stay at that high level of play, and the lows can be drive killers.

As far as which of the factors plays the biggest role in the offense’s struggles it honestly changes from week-to-week, but all are contributing factors. The maddening thing is some of these are simple fixes, while others are more “baked in” to the DNA of this offense this year. The coaches are responsible for identifying which is which and controlling the ones that are controllable. Until that happens continue to look for offensive point totals that start with the number one.