Are The Bucs Targeting WR Evans Enough?

Mike Evans only had four targets against the banged up Steelers in another disappointing offensive performance by the Buccaneers. 

“We definitely talked about that,” said Bucs’ head coach Todd Bowles. “We’ve got to find a way to get our stars the ball. Move them around, get them off picks, double teams – we have to find a way to get them the ball more. Obviously teams are going to try to double him and take him away more. We have to do a better job of getting him the ball.”

Only four targets for the team’s best receiver. That has to be bad, right?

I don’t know. I’m surprised it became as much of a talking point as it did. For one, how many targets should he have? 

Evans averaged 6.8 targets per game in the 2020 regular season. In 2021, that went up a hair to 7.1. Through the five games Evans has been active in 2022, he’s at 6.6 targets per game. That’s pretty steady. 

But even if his targets were noticeably down, which they aren’t, that wouldn’t necessarily be bad. Evans wants vertically-stemmed one-on-one routes outside. Defenses can take away Evans’s best weapon by simply not giving him one-on-one opportunities. Not with “double teams” in the literal sense, but with certain defensive structures. This Bucs regime has been fine with defenses taking that approach.

How The Bucs Are Using Evans In 2022

In fact, Evans is playing more on the outside and less in the slot than recent years. In 2020, he played a career high 37.9 percent of his snaps from the slot. In 2021, that crept down to 34.3 percent. In 2022, that number has come down another notch to 27.1 percent. When the Bucs do play Evans inside now, he’s not running quick change-of-direction type routes. It’s seams, benders, fades, posts, and crossers. 

This is a good thing. When running quick, shifty routes, Evans can look a bit like a fawn learning to walk. His skill set fits naturally to being outside. For as great as Evans is, he’s not a put-it-anywhere piece like Davante Adams. Nor does he need to be.

“Until they allocate help elsewhere, we have to make plays elsewhere,” said Bucs quarterback Tom Brady when asked about Evans’s four targets. “Mike’s usually open when he’s got the right match up. But when they really try to take him away, I gotta find other guys.” 

That sounds like a cliche non-answer, but it’s actually a succinct summary of the dilemma this scheme creates. The crux of the Bucs offense is their 3×1 sets. Stick Evans by himself to the boundary, put Chris Godwin, another receiver, and a tight end to the field. Defense, pick your poison.

Yes, this proposition sounds a lot scarier when “another receiver” is Antonio Brown, and “a tight end” is Rob Gronkowski, but alas. This setup is ultimately predicated on the one-two punch Evans and Godwin create with their complimentary skill sets.

Single high coverages often, but not always, leave Evans one-on-one outside allowing him to run what he runs best: go routes, fades, stops, comebacks, hitches, etc. All four of Evans’s targets in Pittsburgh came against single high.

Want to sink a defender underneath Evans while a safety plays over top, instead? Sure, no problem. The other side is usually ready with a three-man concept that lets Godwin work underneath — like Tier or Strong Choice. Other times it’s a screen with a numbers advantage. 

The above play is a schematic win. Brady lead his receiver like he always does on these type of throws, but Rachaad White doesn’t set himself to be lead. Even so, the ball went through his hands! I’ll take a look like this over a forced target to Evans any day. If you can design layups, trust your players to hit them. If they can’t, you’re screwed anyway. 

What if the Bucs move Evans in the slot to combat two-high looks? Well, it’s not that easy, and defenses aren’t that stubborn. They’ll adjust and clog up the middle. 

On the play above, the Steelers were in Cover 1 Hole with the free safety and a cornerback playing inside-out on Evans. That’s an all-out commitment to taking him away, and it comes with downsides. Credit to Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich’s nifty adjustment on the very next play. 

Same formation. Same coverage. Same concept to the field but with one tweak: Russell Gage Jr. runs an in-breaker into space vacated by the free safety focused on Evans. This should be a touchdown! All the issues with this play are execution based. Shaq Mason gets destroyed, Brady throws an inaccurate pass, and Gage Jr. drops a pass that hits his hands. 

Bucs WR Evans Isn’t Getting Short-Changed Regarding Targets

Overall, this pass offense is doing enough to exploit the weaknesses created by defenses keying-in on Evans. I don’t necessarily agree with what Bowles said about having to move Evans around. Despite the receiver injuries to start the season and despite Luke Goedeke playing like the worst guard in the NFL, the Buccaneers have the fifth most efficient dropback passing offense this season. 

Bucs WR Mike Evans and QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs averaged 0.19 Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback against the Steelers. For reference, the 2022 Eagles’ 0.18 EPA/dropback is third-best in the league. 

If Evans can get more targets in structure without compromising quarterback decision-making, sure! I’m all for it.

But I don’t think Evans getting four targets rather than six or seven warrants concern. Since Brady joined the team, the Bucs are 10-5 (including playoffs) in games Evans has five or fewer targets. 

The biggest problem with this offense is its 32nd-ranked run game. I’m not even specifying by what metric. Dealer’s choice. So it’s even worse that Leftwich’s insists on leaning on the run game on first downs. First down is also a common single high down — something Evans wouldn’t mind running more routes against. 

With an inferior offensive line, less receiving talent, and a significantly less-efficient run game than years past, poor play sequencing is more consequential than ever. 

Want Mike Evans to get more targets? Then throw the damn ball.