Falcons 2021 fantasy football preview: QB Matt Ryan

As fantasy football leagues begin preparation for the 2021 NFL season, we thought it would be a good time to begin previewing the top Atlanta Falcons fantasy options at each position. First up is the quarterback spot where veteran Matt Ryan enters his fourteenth season as Atlanta’s signal-caller.

If you’re looking for someone that moves the needle, Ryan probably isn’t the guy for you. While the Falcons quarterback has been praised for his consistency on the field, this doesn’t necessarily translate into fantasy football success.

Ryan’s fantasy production has been largely hit-or-miss over the last decade. While he did have exceptional seasons in 2016 and 2018, those were the only two years in which he finished top five at his position. In 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2020, Ryan failed to crack the top 10.

While he is a quarterback that can win you games, he isn’t one to elevate your roster by any means. The biggest knock on Ryan is his lack of mobility, which hurts his stock as he is limited in providing you max point value. Of the top 30 quarterbacks, Ryan is projected to finish with the second-fewest total carries.

For as many times as Ryan gives you 20 or more points, he will give you more games where he posts less than 14 points. When it came to living up to his fantasy projection in 2020, Ryan posted below his projected total eight times, throwing one fewer touchdowns in eight games last season. In those eight games, Ryan also threw for eight interceptions, further impacting his weekly performance.

What to expect from Ryan in 2021

There are a lot of unknowns when projecting Ryan’s 2021 fantasy outlook. For starters, you could look to Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill for a solid basis. Unlike Tannehill, though, the Falcons don’t have a running back like Derrick Henry to eat away at Ryan’s pass attempts. Tannehill threw the ball 145 times less than Ryan. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith (Titans offensive coordinator 2019-2020) has said on numerous occasions that he will not apply a “copy-and-paste” method in Atlanta and will adjust his offense accordingly.

ESPN doesn’t seem too high on Ryan, who’s ranked No. 15 overall and expected to do worse this season than he did in 2020. Ryan’s projected per game average of 16.9 is nearly a point lower than the 17.65 per game average he posted a year ago.

On the contrary, Pro Football Focus is much higher on Ryan in 2021. While ESPN only projects the Falcons QB to get 287.4 points, PFF gives Ryan a projection of 313.4 points this season.

Ryan’s most favorable matchups

• Week 1: Philadelphia Eagles
• Week 5: New York Jets
• Week 10: Dallas Cowboys
• Week 12: Jacksonville Jaguars
• Week 16: Detroit Lions

Ryan’s least favorable matchups

• Week 3: New York Giants
• Week 4: Washington Football Team
• Week 7: Miami Dolphins
• Week 11: New England Patriots
• Week 15: San Francisco 49ers

Final Verdict

If you plan on rolling into the 2021 season with Falcons QB Matt Ryan as your starter, it would be wise to wait nine or 10 full rounds before you make your selection. Selecting Ryan above round nine should be considered a hefty reach. Building a team around Ryan will bring you much more success than relying on him to out-duel your opponent’s quarterback each week.

Over the past month, Ryan’s average draft position has peaked at No. 114 overall and has recently dipped to as low as No. 120 overall. This recent dip can be tied to the Falcons trading away Julio Jones.

Ryan’s drop in value gives you ample amount of time to build your roster while everyone else is scrambling to land one of the top quarterbacks available. With Ryan only on 44 percent of fantasy rosters — via ESPN’s Fantasy Football system — there is a chance you could see the Falcons QB drop all the way to round 13.