What analytics say about Bears QB Justin Fields’ projected production in 2021

When the Bears traded up to draft Justin Fields with the 11th overall pick, there was a new sense of hope and optimism that spread through the Bears fan base. Fields gives Chicago a good chance to reverse the quarterback misfortunes that have plagued the franchise for decades.

Now, it doesn’t appear that we’ll see Fields take over as the starter right out of the gate, as Matt Nagy remains adamant that Fields should develop behind veteran Andy Dalton. But it’s clear that Fields is the best quarterback prospect the Bears have had in decades — if not ever. That means the expectations for Fields are sky high, which isn’t anything he’s not used to.

NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund examined the projected production for the top five rookie quarterbacks selected in the 2021 NFL draft, which is based on Frelund’s “contextualized data and my computer-vision models.”

Fields, who was the fourth quarterback selected in the draft, landed at No. 3 on Frelund’s list behind Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson.

Fields provides coach Matt Nagy with the opportunity to diversify his attack. From 2018 to 2020, Fields produced a TD-to-INT ratio of 54:4 from a clean pocket, PFF’s best such mark in that span. Fields also showed top-ranking production ability on deep passes (posting a 50 percent completion rate on throws of 20-plus yards since 2019, per PFF, ranking sixth-best in the FBS) and off play-action (with a 146.4 passer rating on play-action in 2020, third-best in the FBS, according to PFF), and he showed he could connect on attempts of 10-plus air yards when his base was not set (55.5 percent completion rate on such throws since 2019, per my computer vision). Those are all great indicators when it comes to projecting his NFL production. Also, take note of the Ohio State product’s 630 rushing yards on scrambles since 2019 (with five TDs).

What’s interesting is that Frelund noted how Fields’ ranking would change should be start the season as QB1. And, spoiler alert, he’d leap to the top of the list. Yes, even above Lawrence.

Nagy’s recent public comments indicate Andy Dalton is in line to begin the season as Chicago’s starter. If Fields were to be named the QB1 ahead of Week 1, his fantasy value would catapult him to the top of this rookie list — but he’d still fall outside of the top 13 of all QBs.

Sure, Fields might not start Week 1. But it shouldn’t take too long before the rookie finally gets his chance to start in 2021.