Betting with X: 49ers vs Lions bets and more

Looking at what will hold San Francisco back from making the Super Bowl and how Deebo Samuel is still underrated.

The 49ers have an opportunity to have a bigger season than their historical 2019 run.

With the NFL season kicking off this past Thursday, I thought it would be appropriate to address some betting odds for the Niners. This will also be a weekly column where I look at how Niner bets should play out.

Rob Guerrera already looked at three prop bets ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Detroit Lions. Brandon Aiyiuk and Raheem Mostert will certainly knock the over out of the park on those two bets.

However, T.J. Hockenson is the lone exceptional target Jared Goff has. Betting under 4.5 catches seems silly as I believe Detroit will be forced to throw the ball after being down two scores.

We look at Fan Duel bets for Niners vs. Lions, and what can hold the Niners back this year.

San Francisco winning the Super Bowl +1500

The main concern for making the Super Bowl for me was weak cornerback depth and the inability of the QB to make explosive plays.

Cornerback questions were answered by signing Josh Norman. In the meantime, Emmanuel Moseley’s health is vital. He may not be elite, but he is essential for the Niners getting to the big dance. San Francisco is relying on Deommodre Lenoir’s development to be rapid. He needs to play against the Lions.

Seeing how aggressive Jimmy Garoppolo is Sunday should let you know the team’s odds when he plays. Shanahan had a different game script when Trey lance was on the field in the preseason games. Bonehead turnovers and missing open receivers will tighten the leash on Garoppolo.

The truth is that Garoppolo’s health and the unwillingness to challenge the defense is why the Niners used three first-round picks to draft Lance. 49er fans may think Gorapplo’s starting position is locked away, but in reality, it couldn’t be farther from the truth.

DeMeco Ryans being a first-year defensive coordinator, does not worry me at all. I hate to point all fingers at Garoppolo, but success in the NFL is now built off explosive plays. We’ve seen Garoppolo do it in the past, but it’s time for him to do it week in and week out.

Under on Lions vs. Niners scoring 45.5 -110

The 49ers should no doubt blow out the Lions. But, on the contrary, it is Week 1 of the NFL season, and teams will be rusty. Yes, players played together in camp, preseason, etc., but the regular season is different. It means more.

Players are playing to feed their families, and while Detroit’s undermanned offensive firepower has been talked about, San Francisco could run into some hiccups as well. I’m not here to slander Garoppolo, but he has to continue to prove that he is the clear-cut QB1. If not, Lance will take his spot, and Kyle Shanahan will never look back.

I spoke on how the Niners should win by 20; in contrast, I doubt the Niners score over 30 points. The Niners will likely be up by two touchdowns through the third quarter and play it safe, displaying their well-built rushing attack.

If Detroit scores more than 17, the 49ers’ defense could be in trouble. I get it’s Week 1. Trades can still happen, and so forth. This is a statement game, especially for the defense. Ryans could see himself, on the other hand, off some bad Cover 0 calls if Goff is dialed in.

I would take the under in 45.5. My prediction was 27-7 off the strength off Shanahan taking his foot off the gas by the time 49ers get up 2 scores. But, again, the defense shouldn’t allow a ton of points, making this bet even safer.

Deebo Samuel anytime scorer against Detroit -180

This bet is super intriguing because Samuel told the media that he worked exclusively on his lower body. Samuel has fought lower body injuries the last two seasons.

I’m sure the rise of Aiyuk motivated him to become a better receiver last season. Aiyuk is almost fully polished as a receiver. Whereas Samuel’s physical catch point and physical RB ability make them different WRs.

Samuel will score off either a big play or a red zone target.

Samuel over 46.5 yards against Detroit -114

I spoke on Detroit’s cornerbacks’ age as young and inexperienced and why Shanahan should expose them. So it shouldn’t be any shock if the Niners have 3 receivers over 80 yards Sunday, and Samuel will be one of them.

While I spoke on him developing as a WR, I still expect Shanahan to feature Samuel on a jet sweep or even in the backfield. It’s notable for reminding yourself that QBs usually get a pass on jet sweep passes.

Aiyuk and George kittle will get theirs, but you can’t forget how physically a receiver Samuel is. Samuels will see at least 7 targets, and I expect him to get around 10 yards a pop on each of them.

If Garoppolo is willing to throw it deep, I expect Samuel to be on the receiving end early in the first half. Trent Sherfield emerged as a deep threat throughout the preseason, and defenses will have to account for him.

Making it another reason that Samuel is a sleeper to make a deep threat down the field.

Outlook

The Super Bowl is the goal, but it is miles away from Week 1. San Francisco has to focus on the task at hand and take it week by week. 49er fans could easily see three 1,000 yard pass-catchers this year.

Samuel is looking to evolve into a better receiver. He committed to work on deeper routes and did yoga in the offseason. The 49ers look to have a big game on the ground and through the air, and Samuel can contribute to both.