Brian Thomas Jr. Would Be Intriguing Bucs Pick At WR

Bucs general manager has a type when it comes to first-round picks.

And LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. may fit the bill.

The speedy receiver checks both the age and athleticism boxes that Licht typically looks for in a first-round pick. But going beyond those two markers what does his game look like?

Where could he help the Bucs and what could the high and low ends of his game look like? I watched LSU’s 2023 games against Alabama, Florida and Florida State in my evaluation of him.

Brian Thomas Jr.’s College Career

In three years at LSU, Brian Thomas Jr. racked up 127 catches and 1,897 yards with 24 touchdowns. Almost 90% of the routes he ran came from the outside as he mostly played the “X” and “Z” receiver roles. This fit the 6-foot-3 receiver’s skill set very well.

Thomas caught over 70% of his targets, dropped less than 10% of his opportunities and secured almost 50% of his contested catch chances for his collegiate career. He did all of this with a healthy 12.2 average depth of target.

These stats tell the story of a solid receiver who is not worthy of a first-round pick. But when you look at his 2023 season you see a different story unfold. One that shows a talented, physical, athletic receiver who had an exponential jump in his level of play this past year.

In 2023, Thomas caught 68 of his 87 targets (78.2%) for 1,177 yards and seventeen – 17! – touchdowns. He averaged 17.3 yards per catch while averaging almost 14 yards per target. Thomas only dropped five of his targets (6.8%) while securing seven of his 13 contested catch opportunities. After the catch he forced 11 missed tackles.

He was nothing short of extremely productive – even operating as a Robin to Malik Nabers’ Batman.

Tale Of The Tape

Brian Thomas Jr. wins most consistently vertically as a deep threat. He ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine. That is in the 94th percentile for all receivers in the MockDraftable database.

His speed is consistent throughout as his 1.5 second 10-yard split is in the 88th percentile. Thomas also tested well in the explosive drills that show his lower half is strong and can propel him through his routes quickly.

And that speed absolutely shows up on tape.

Brian Thomas Jr.’s 4.33 speed definitely shows up on tape. pic.twitter.com/Yclcb1wkMw

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) April 7, 2024

pic.twitter.com/AjZjyDNbCK

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) April 7, 2024

Thomas combines his superb speed with good hands that he uses to make difficult catches on the sidelines. His large frame and physical style of play make him the perfect candidate to fill an “X” role as he can line up on the line of scrimmage and beat jams. He can win downfield with his size and body control as he is good at adjusting his frame to line up with different trajectories and catching through contact.

While Thomas did not play in the slot much last year (just 62 snaps), he was extremely efficient from the inside. He caught eight of his 11 targets for 167 yards and four touchdowns. I liked what I saw from him in the limited reps I saw and think he could be a player that can move inside 15-25% of the time as a big slot who can pressure defenses on deep verticals on seam routes.

Incomplete Portions Of His Game

LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. Photo by: USA Today

Brian Thomas Jr. is not without question marks. There are several areas of his game that are not currently developed. To start his route tree is incomplete. LSU primarily had Thomas running three routes.

Primarily, he ran deep go routes. From there they would occasionally have him break down with a curl off of it. And for more manufactured touches he would run drags underneath. For him to be a successful “X” in today’s NFL, Thomas is going to need to learn how to execute in and out breakers like digs, slants, and intermediate outs where he can execute across multiple planes.

Thomas is also inconsistent in his separation due to wasted steps as he changes direction and crosses planes. This shows up as he breaks down at the top of his curls and as he tries to make defenders miss after the catch. His drag routes can lack crispness preventing him from leaving behind less athletic defenders. This sloppy footwork would lead to reduced agility. Thomas might have been afraid this could have hurt his draft stock, so he has opted to not test in the three-cone drill or short shuttle at the Combine or at his pro day.

Could Brian Thomas Jr. Be An Option At No. 26 – And If He Is, Would It Be A Good Pick?

LSU WR Brian Thomas – Photo by: USA Today

Grinding The Mocks currently has Brian Thomas Jr.’s expected draft position at No. 21 overall. If that bears out, he would be unavailable when the Bucs select at No. 26. But a five-spot swing at the back end of the first round doesn’t put him out of the realm of possibility for the Bucs.

And there is a need as much as some might say there isn’t. When assessing team needs it is important to look beyond just the current year. In 2025 the Bucs receiver room is set to be a 32-year-old Mike Evans, young unproven commodities Trey Palmer and Rakim Jarrett, and gadget player Deven Thompkins, as Chris Godwin is entering a contract year in 2024 and may not return.

That’s hardly a formidable group at this point. Thomas would bolster the group and improve the odds that one of he, Palmer and Jarrett would develop into a starting-caliber receiver by 2025. He would be a promising backup for Evans as his career sunsets. That would allow Palmer to develop more as a “Z” where he doesn’t have to play on the LOS.

I have Brian Thomas Jr. with an unadjusted second-round grade and a position-adjusted overall ranking of 28 (out of a current draft board that stands at 104 players). If the Bucs were to select Thomas in the first round, I would applaud the pick as his upside is that of a top-tier receiver and I think his floor could be that of a solid No. 2 perimeter receiver not unlike a Gabe Davis or Christian Watkins.

Given the potential upside and the short-to-long term need I would be a fan of Tampa Bay selecting Thomas at No. 26 if he’s available.