Broncos currently hold the 11th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft

Here are all of the scenarios that could help the Denver Broncos move up the draft order in Week 18 or slide back.

According to Tankathon, the Denver Broncos currently hold the 11th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft order. That position could change wildly with the outcome of Week 18 and the odds are we’ll see Denver move up as they face a team in the Kansas City Chiefs that they have not beaten since Week 2 of the 2015 season.

The range as far as I can tell is anywhere between the 7th and 14th pick based on strength of schedule. The strength of schedule would likely limit Denver to the 14th pick if all three 8-8 teams were to lose next week and Denver were to win.

It gets a lot more interesting as you look at the 7-10 spots ahead of Denver. Let’s look at each of those teams matchups in Week 18 and grade them on win probability.

Seattle Seahawks (6-10) at Arizona Cardinals (11-5)

This is a game that the Seahawks could win, but the Cardinals are a playoff team and clearly have the better talent. They have a reason to play hard and to win at home with seeding at stake. The only caveat is that the Seahawks could get hot at any time and if Russell Wilson is dealing, they can beat any team. Even so, I’m going to give this one a low win probability.

Win Probability: Low

Chicago Bears (6-10) at Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

Hard to predict this one. The Vikings may have a lame duck head coach heading into the final week and have nothing left to play for. They just came off a game where the Green Bay Packers gave them a good old fashioned butt whooping. The Bears have played pretty well in recent weeks, so I’m going to give this one a medium win probability just because it is an away game for Chicago.

Win Probability: Medium

Washington Football Team (6-10) at New York Giants (4-12)

Two teams on month-long losing streaks doesn’t inspire much confidence. Flip a coin on which team plays hard enough to win this game. I guess I’ll go with Washington if only because I have seen them play good football and I have yet to see the Giants do the same. Even so, its a road game and both teams are terrible lately. Only giving this a medium win probability.

Win Probability: Medium

New Orleans Saints (8-8) at Atlanta Falcons (7-9)

This is a great spot for the Broncos to pick up a draft spot on Sunday. The Falcons beat the Trevor Siemian-led Saints earlier in the season and have been playing rather well if not always on the winning side. The Saints defense has also come alive in recent week, so it could be another coin flip type game. However, the Falcons are at home and I’m going to rate this as my only high win probability game.

Win Probability: High

Predictions

I’m going with the 50-50 split on these games. The Broncos come out with the 9th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. If they want to make a big splash trade for a quarterback like Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers, then having that Top 10 pick is going to be a vital piece of those discussions.

It’s been another disappointing season, but we’ll have to see how GM George Paton does to continue improving this roster and rebuilding this franchise from the ground up.