Broncos’ performance on 3rd and 4th down in 2023
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By: Joe Mahoney
Would it surprise you to see that Jarrett Stidham was better than Russell Wilson when passing on 3rd or 4th down?
The Denver Broncos finished 21st in 3rd down conversion rate in 2023. They converted on 81 of 220 (36.8%). The best in the league was the Bills at 49.8% and the worst was the Jets at a woeful 26.0%. The Jets were a step below every other team in the league with the next worst being at 30.2%.
| Rk | Tm | 3DAtt | 3DConv | 3D% | 4DAtt | 4DConv | 4D% | RZAtt | RZTD | RZPct |
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 219 | 109 | 49.80% | 16 | 9 | 56.30% | 65 | 41 | 63.10% |
| 2 | Dallas Cowboys | 230 | 111 | 48.30% | 23 | 13 | 56.50% | 71 | 40 | 56.30% |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 225 | 108 | 48.00% | 26 | 19 | 73.10% | 60 | 36 | 60.00% |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 179 | 85 | 47.50% | 13 | 7 | 53.80% | 67 | 45 | 67.20% |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 223 | 105 | 47.10% | 24 | 12 | 50.00% | 64 | 33 | 51.60% |
| 6 | Kansas City Chiefs | 220 | 96 | 43.60% | 20 | 10 | 50.00% | 61 | 33 | 54.10% |
| 7 | Miami Dolphins | 202 | 85 | 42.10% | 25 | 11 | 44.00% | 58 | 38 | 65.50% |
| 8 | Los Angeles Rams | 226 | 95 | 42.00% | 21 | 13 | 61.90% | 55 | 35 | 63.60% |
| 9 | Baltimore Ravens | 207 | 87 | 42.00% | 14 | 8 | 57.10% | 68 | 42 | 61.80% |
| 10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 236 | 98 | 41.50% | 18 | 12 | 66.70% | 49 | 22 | 44.90% |
| 11 | Detroit Lions | 224 | 93 | 41.50% | 40 | 21 | 52.50% | 64 | 41 | 64.10% |
| 12 | Chicago Bears | 238 | 98 | 41.20% | 26 | 13 | 50.00% | 49 | 28 | 57.10% |
| 13 | Atlanta Falcons | 225 | 90 | 40.00% | 19 | 8 | 42.10% | 47 | 22 | 46.80% |
| 14 | Arizona Cardinals | 225 | 88 | 39.10% | 34 | 15 | 44.10% | 44 | 27 | 61.40% |
| 15 | New Orleans Saints | 235 | 91 | 38.70% | 19 | 9 | 47.40% | 60 | 32 | 53.30% |
| 16 | Los Angeles Chargers | 237 | 91 | 38.40% | 32 | 15 | 46.90% | 47 | 27 | 57.40% |
| 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 228 | 87 | 38.20% | 29 | 13 | 44.80% | 52 | 26 | 50.00% |
| 18 | Minnesota Vikings | 223 | 85 | 38.10% | 29 | 17 | 58.60% | 51 | 24 | 47.10% |
| 19 | Houston Texans | 232 | 88 | 37.90% | 21 | 8 | 38.10% | 53 | 29 | 54.70% |
| 20 | Cincinnati Bengals | 218 | 82 | 37.60% | 20 | 9 | 45.00% | 52 | 31 | 59.60% |
| 21 | Denver Broncos | 220 | 81 | 36.80% | 20 | 13 | 65.00% | 58 | 30 | 51.70% |
| 22 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 232 | 85 | 36.60% | 19 | 9 | 47.40% | 42 | 20 | 47.60% |
| 23 | Seattle Seahawks | 207 | 75 | 36.20% | 16 | 6 | 37.50% | 54 | 26 | 48.10% |
| 24 | Las Vegas Raiders | 216 | 77 | 35.60% | 23 | 14 | 60.90% | 47 | 23 | 48.90% |
| 25 | Washington Commanders | 216 | 77 | 35.60% | 29 | 16 | 55.20% | 49 | 31 | 63.30% |
| 26 | Indianapolis Colts | 232 | 82 | 35.30% | 32 | 16 | 50.00% | 57 | 28 | 49.10% |
| 27 | Carolina Panthers | 249 | 85 | 34.10% | 48 | 23 | 47.90% | 36 | 18 | 50.00% |
| 28 | Tennessee Titans | 212 | 71 | 33.50% | 20 | 11 | 55.00% | 48 | 23 | 47.90% |
| 29 | Cleveland Browns | 253 | 80 | 31.60% | 32 | 18 | 56.30% | 50 | 28 | 56.00% |
| 30 | New York Giants | 248 | 75 | 30.20% | 37 | 18 | 48.60% | 43 | 19 | 44.20% |
| 31 | New England Patriots | 222 | 67 | 30.20% | 25 | 9 | 36.00% | 36 | 21 | 58.30% |
| 32 | New York Jets | 235 | 61 | 26.00% | 29 | 17 | 58.60% | 37 | 12 | 32.40% |
The Broncos were actually the 3rd best team in the league at converting on 4th down, converting on 13 of 20 attempts. The Panthers had the most 4th down attempts with a whopping 48 this season (almost three per game) while the 49ers only went for it 13 times on fourth down. The Patriots were the worst team when going for it on 4th down, converting on only 36.0% of their attempts.
The other nugget of information in the table able is red zone TD percentage. The Broncos finished the season 19th in RZTD%. Scoring TDs on 30 of 58 red zone possessions (51.7%). The best team in the league was the 49ers who scored TD on 67.2% while the Jets only scored TDs on a woeful 32.4%, again a step below the rest of the league. The Giants were the second worst and they scored on 44.2%. But let’s get back to the Broncos.
The Broncos attempted to throw the ball 157 times on 3rd or 4th down this past season. 31 of those dropbacks resulted in sacks (26 on Russell Wilson and five on Jarrett Stidham). Below is a table comparing the passing of both Bronco QBs on 3rd and 4th down this season.
| Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Yds | Y/A | 1D | Rate |
| Russell Wilson | 71 | 109 | 65.1 | 795 | 10 | 2 | 26 | -158 | 7.3 | 43 | 109.7 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 10 | 17 | 58.8 | 179 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -33 | 10.5 | 8 | 114.6 |
Note that while Russ had a better completion percentage, only 43 of 71 his completions (60.6%) went for first downs or touchdowns. Compare that to Stidham who only completed 10 of 17 throws, but eight of those ten resulted in a 1D or a TD.
If we focus on just 4th down throws, both QBs were mostly comparable with Russ completing two of four throws (both conversions) while taking two sacks. Stidham completed one of two throws (converted) and did not take a sack on his other throw.
We also have to look at how often Russ converted on third or fourth down with his legs. Almost half of the Bronco 4th down conversions in 2023 came via Russ’ legs (he had 7 carries for 33 yards and six first downs when he ran on 4th down. Stidham did not run on fourth down. When the Broncos ran the ball on 4th down with a running back, Javonte Williams converted on three of four and Samaje Perine converted his lone attempt. The average yardage to convert on 4th down when the Broncos chose to go for it in 2023 was 3.0 yards, but that’s a little skewed by three plays where the Broncos went for it on 4th and 9, 10 and 15 yards to go. The only one of those to convert was the completion by Stidham to Brandon Johnson for 21 yards on 4th and 15 in the final game of the season.
Russell Wilson also ran the ball 32 times for 151 yards on 3rd down with 19 first downs. While Stidham ran the ball four times for four yards and only one first down on third down.
The Broncos ran the ball 73 times on 3rd down in 2023, but about two thirds of those were on third and short while the other third was what I can “give up” rans on 3rd and long.
47/73 were on 3rd and 1-3 needed (26/47 runs converted)
8/73 on 3rd and 4-6 (6/8 converted – this is surprising)
8/73 on 3rd and 7-10 (2/8 converted)
10/73 on 3rd and 11 or more (0/10 converted)
The Broncos were actually better at converting on on runs on 3rd and medium (75%) than they were on 3rd and short (55%). Three of those conversions on third and medium were Russ running, two were Perine and one was Jaleel McLaughlin.
Before we leave this discussion let’s look at what elite QBs do on 3rd down when they throw the ball. Across the NFL in 2023, 76 players threw the ball on 3rd down completing 60.4% of their throws. When their throws were completed on third down they converted on 65% of those throws. Leaving out QBs with fewer than 20 throws on 3rd down, the top 10 in the league were
- Justin Herbert (79%)
- Jordan Love (78%)
- Brock Purdy (78%)
- Tyson Bagent (76%) – on only 44 throws
- Taylor Heinecke (75%) – on only 41 throws
- Josh Allen (73%)
- Tua Tagovailoa (72%)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (72%) – on only 42 throws
- Mitch Trubisky (71%) – on only 31 throws
- Lamar Jackson (70%)
So the top three were all starters and all converted on better than 75% of the time when they completed passes on 3rd down. Russell Wilson’s 59% was closer to the bottom than the top. The worst starter for conversion on 3rd down completions was Bryce Young. He completed 83/142 passes on 3rd down, but only 44 of those converted. Converted on less than 50% of your third down completions is sign that you will never be a long-term starter at QB in the NFL. The list of QBs who had that dubious distinction in 2023 is below
- Dorian Thompson-Robinson
- Trevor Siemian
- P.J. Walker
- Bailey Zappe
- Tommy DeVito
- Tim Boyle
The QB with the most 3rd down conversions by run in 2023 was Josh Allen with 32. Eleven QBs had 10 or more rushing conversions on third down in 2023. Russ had the fourth most with 19, but none of his went for TDs. Table of best 3rd down running QBs in 2023 is below.
| Player | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | 1D |
| Josh Allen | 43 | 219 | 5.09 | 3 | 32 |
| Jalen Hurts | 48 | 199 | 4.15 | 3 | 32 |
| Justin Fields | 30 | 295 | 9.83 | 1 | 20 |
| Russell Wilson | 32 | 151 | 4.72 | 0 | 19 |
| Kyren Williams | 26 | 137 | 5.27 | 3 | 16 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 23 | 142 | 6.17 | 2 | 15 |
| Lamar Jackson | 31 | 220 | 7.1 | 1 | 14 |
| Dak Prescott | 21 | 120 | 5.71 | 1 | 14 |
| Sam Howell | 19 | 144 | 7.58 | 2 | 12 |
| Baker Mayfield | 21 | 115 | 5.48 | 0 | 12 |
| Bryce Young | 16 | 125 | 7.81 | 0 | 11 |
The QB who was the best overall at converting on 3rd down (by pass or run) was Jalen Hurts. Russ’ 43.8% was a little above average. See the table below this includes passing and rushing attempts on 3rd down. Notice that only three QBs were at 50% or above – Hurts, Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy. It should surprise no one that all three QBs got their respective teams to the playoffs. The guys on bottom of the list will almost certainly NOT be starting QBs in 2024.
| Player | Total 3rd down attemps | Total 3rd down Conversions | Total 3rd down conversion rate |
| Jalen Hurts | 174 | 90 | 51.7% |
| Dak Prescott | 166 | 84 | 50.6% |
| Brock Purdy | 116 | 58 | 50.0% |
| Josh Allen | 176 | 87 | 49.4% |
| Jake Browning | 67 | 33 | 49.3% |
| Jordan Love | 177 | 83 | 46.9% |
| Tyson Bagent | 47 | 22 | 46.8% |
| Baker Mayfield | 189 | 86 | 45.5% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 49 | 22 | 44.9% |
| Joshua Dobbs | 139 | 62 | 44.6% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 166 | 74 | 44.6% |
| Jared Goff | 149 | 66 | 44.3% |
| Daniel Jones | 52 | 23 | 44.2% |
| Justin Herbert | 136 | 60 | 44.1% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 159 | 70 | 44.0% |
| Desmond Ridder | 116 | 51 | 44.0% |
| Kirk Cousins | 89 | 39 | 43.8% |
| Russell Wilson | 137 | 60 | 43.8% |
| Matthew Stafford | 136 | 59 | 43.4% |
| Justin Fields | 138 | 59 | 42.8% |
| Mason Rudolph | 33 | 14 | 42.4% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 151 | 64 | 42.4% |
| C.J. Stroud | 169 | 71 | 42.0% |
| Lamar Jackson | 142 | 59 | 41.5% |
| Joe Burrow | 94 | 39 | 41.5% |
| Derek Carr | 160 | 66 | 41.3% |
| Kyler Murray | 80 | 33 | 41.3% |
| Taylor Heinicke | 47 | 19 | 40.4% |
| Sam Howell | 159 | 63 | 39.6% |
| Nick Mullens | 41 | 16 | 39.0% |
| Deshaun Watson | 59 | 23 | 39.0% |
| Geno Smith | 148 | 57 | 38.5% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 34 | 13 | 38.2% |
| Tyrod Taylor | 67 | 25 | 37.3% |
| Kenny Pickett | 125 | 46 | 36.8% |
| Ryan Tannehill | 69 | 25 | 36.2% |
| Anthony Richardson | 25 | 9 | 36.0% |
| Easton Stick | 50 | 18 | 36.0% |
| Aidan O’Connell | 99 | 35 | 35.4% |
| Mac Jones | 102 | 36 | 35.3% |
| Gardner Minshew II | 135 | 47 | 34.8% |
| Bryce Young | 158 | 55 | 34.8% |
| Joe Flacco | 53 | 18 | 34.0% |
| Drew Lock | 21 | 7 | 33.3% |
| Will Levis | 81 | 27 | 33.3% |
| Zach Wilson | 112 | 35 | 31.3% |
| P.J. Walker | 30 | 9 | 30.0% |
| Tim Boyle | 25 | 7 | 28.0% |
| Trevor Siemian | 44 | 11 | 25.0% |
| Tommy DeVito | 66 | 16 | 24.2% |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 38 | 9 | 23.7% |
| Bailey Zappe | 65 | 15 | 23.1% |
Suffice it to say that the Denver Broncos ability to convert on 3rd down in 2023 was nowhere close to where Sean Payton wanted it to be. Part of this was the inability to stay “ahead of the chains”. Too often the Broncos were running the ball for little or no gain on first down and this led to more third and long situations than he wanted. That being said, the Broncos average to gain on 3rd down in 2023 was only 6.7 yards which was 11th best in the league. The Raiders were the best at 6.2 while the Jets (again) were the worst at 8.2.
League-wide this is the distance needed percentage breakdown on 3rd down with Denver % in parentheses
- 1-3 — 28% (33%)
- 4-6 — 25% (23%)
- 7-10 — 29% (26%)
- 11+ — 18% (19%)
I was surprised to see that the Broncos did a good job of getting in 3rd and short this season, much better than league average. It didn’t feel like that during the season.
Originally posted on Mile High Report
