Browns playoff variance: Impact of Week 12’s result versus Broncos

The AFC Playoff picture continues to become clearer

The Cleveland Browns roll into Colorado to face the Denver Broncos in Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season. With a Mountain Time start, Browns fans have a little longer to wait this Sunday compared to most.

For Cleveland, despite a number of significant injuries, the playoff picture is a very clear one in 2023. At 7-3, the Browns are upwardly mobile and currently hold the fifth seed and top wild card spot in the AFC playoff picture.

Taking a look at the playoff rooting guide for Cleveland, there are a few games that matter more than others but the Browns hold their fate primarily in their own hands.

This week, a win would catapult their playoff chances into the mid-90% while a loss would drop them into the mid-80%:

Before the week started, Cleveland was just one of five AFC teams with a greater than 60% chance of making the playoffs with the Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills next up on the list.

Unlike some of those teams, the Browns playoff variance change this week is not too great. While a win would vault them, a loss would keep them among the top five in the AFC.

A Cleveland victory and a loss by the Baltimore Ravens would place the Browns in a tie for first place with at least the Miami Dolphins, depending on the results of other games. Tiebreakers can be close to pointless to work through this early in the season but Cleveland leaving Week 12 with the top seed and a route to a first-round bye is well within possibilities.

How shocked would you be if the Browns were 8-3 after Week 12? What if they are tied for the top record in the AFC with a shot at the #1 seed and a first-round bye?