Bucs at Texans: Pewter Predictions For Week 9

BUCS at TEXANS

WHEN: Sunday, November 5, 2023 | WHERE: NRG Stadium | KICKOFF: 1:00 p.m. ET | TV: CBS

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Ian Eagle | ANALYST: Charles Davis | SIDELINE: Evan Washburn

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: Bucs Do Enough To Beat Texans, Get Back To .500

The Bucs defense is tied for sixth with the Texans in scoring defense, allowing an average of 18.3 points per game. Houston’s offense ranks 21st in the league, averaging 21.1 points per game. One interesting note about Todd Bowles’ defense is that it has held every opponent it has faced under their season scoring average. That trend must continue in Houston for the Bucs to win because Tampa Bay’s offense is only averaging 17.3 points per game, which ranks 27th in the NFL.

Points have been harder to come by for the Texans in the last three games in which the team has scored 19, 21 and 15 points during a 1-2 stretch. Meanwhile, the Bucs offense has been on a slow climb over the last three games, scoring six, 13 and 18 points. Tampa Bay will need that trend to continue and hit at least 20 points on Sunday. The Bucs are 3-0 this year when scoring 20 points or more.

Perhaps Texas native Baker Mayfield will play inspired football returning to his home state, especially after watching his beloved Texas Rangers win the World Series. Mayfield needs to continue to avoid interceptions and make a few more plays in the passing game for the Bucs to win. Getting the ground game going against the league’s 11th-ranked run defense (99.3 avg.) might be wishful thinking. Mike Evans Chris Godwin need to rise to the occasion and dominate their matchups.

Defensively, the Bucs need to generate more pass rush than they have over the last few weeks, especially at outside linebacker. C.J. Stroud doesn’t make many mistakes, evidenced by only one interception this year. The Bucs need to pressure him into a pick or two, or create turnovers with strip-sacks.

At some point, Bowles has to realize that Ryan Neal is a liability in pass coverage and either bench him for Dee Delaney or at least rotate Delaney in to get better play and the chance for more picks. Delaney is tied for the team lead with two interceptions. The Bucs need a big game from Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey up front and if they get that Tampa Bay snaps its three-game losing skid in Houston.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 20, Texans 19
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 6-1

Matt Matera: Bucs End Their Losing Streak

Is this the week that the Bucs finally get off the schneid and win for the first time since returning from the bye? I think so. Tampa Bay’s defense is going to regroup after their worst game of the season last week and harass rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Let’s remember, for all the impressive things Stroud has been able to do, the Texans also just lost to the previously winless Panthers, scoring just 13 points.

Bucs ILBs Lavonte David and Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The return of nose tackle Vita Vea is going to pay off huge dividends for the Bucs this week. The Texans are down to their fourth-string center, so if I’m Tampa Bay I put Vea across from him on every single play or use Calijah Kancey to shoot the gap as well. It would also be good for Todd Bowles to continuously blitz Lavonte David or Devin White through the A-gap and exploit this matchup that favors the Bucs.

It’ll be important for Tampa Bay to make the open-field tackles against Texans wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell. They’re big with yards after the catch, so stopping them needs to be a major emphasis. I beg Bowles to play tight coverage with Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean to prevent Stroud from getting into a rhythm.

The turnover battle is obviously huge but once again the offense has to step up if the Bucs want to win. Each week they say they’re close. I don’t think the offense has hit its stride just yet, but Tampa Bay can take a step in the right direction.

The run game improved so I believe it’ll be even better this time around. That’ll open everything else up for Baker Mayfield and also for Mike Evans. If the Bucs can block defensive end Jonathan Greenard, they should keep Mayfield upright for most of the game. Rachaad White will continue to be an offensive weapon as the Bucs find ways to reach the end zone consistently enough.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 23, Texans 14
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 5-2

Bailey Adams: This Might Be The Bucs’ Last Chance With Me For 2023

Maybe the Bucs just are what they are, and a loss on Sunday would probably cement that point in my mind. But I keep expecting this Tampa Bay team to put together a complete effort and turn a corner on its way toward a playoff push. The NFC South will be there for the taking by the end of the year, and there’s even the potential for Todd Bowles and his squad to sneak into the playoffs as a wild card due to how weak the NFC is as a whole.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

All of that is in front of the Bucs, and the idea in my head is that there’s too much talent on this roster for them to not at least be in the mix down the stretch. However, a loss in Houston and they may face a long road toward being in the mix.

They’d be 3-5 and chasing .500 for the rest of the year, much like they did in 2022. Not to mention, they should be further along and an overall better team than this year’s Texans, so a loss here is probably the final straw for me as far as picking the Bucs to win many more games over the next couple of months.

But I am picking Tampa Bay in this one. I don’t know if this offense really has a breakout within itself at this point, but I think Baker Mayfield and the likes of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rachaad White (in the passing game) can do enough against this Houston defense.

And on the other side, I think the Bucs’ bend-don’t-break strategy will barely be enough against rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense. Stroud has protected the ball well through the first seven games, but I think the Bucs have a turnover or two in them come Sunday.

It will be far from pretty and I have a shockingly low confidence level in the idea of being right about this, but I think the Bucs get the job done, get back to 4-4 and return to Raymond James Stadium next week with a chance to get above .500 with a win over the Titans.

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 20, Texans 16
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 5-2

Josh Queipo: Bucs Take Advantage Of Texans’ Offensive Line M*A*S*H Unit

What new Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans has done with that team is nothing short of outstanding. Big, convincing wins over both the Jaguars and the Steelers. Another win over the Saints. Add in close losses to the Panthers and the Falcons and you have a hyper-competitive team on the rise.

Bucs NT Vita Vea – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

Ryans has the young defense playing competitive football as they are ranked middle of the pack in expected points added per play (18th), and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has been arguably the best QB in this year’s draft class half-way through the season. So, while this game may have been circled as an easy win when the schedules initially came out, it is anything but now.

Still, the Texans are dealing with a massive number of injuries on their offensive line. Their 2022 first-round pick (offensive lineman Kenyon Green) is on injured reserve. As is the guard they traded for a few weeks into the season to replace him (Kendrick Green – no relation). Not one, not two, but three of their centers have now also hit the injured reserve list (Scott Quessenberry, Juice Scruggs, and just this week Jarrett Patterson). It’s not pretty.

They have responded by kicking Tytus Howard, traditionally a right tackle, into guard and signed the ageless George Fant to play right tackle and are now going to start former Miami Dolphin Michael Deiter at center. If ever there was a time that Bucs head coach Todd Bowles had an opportunity to take advantage of a down-and-out offensive line this is it.

After getting out-schemed on Thursday Night Football in Week 8 I expect Bowles to have an innovative game plan with his corners rolled-up closer to the line of scrimmage to force Stroud to have to wait on longer developing routes while the Bucs’ front-seven wreaks havoc up front. If that happens the Bucs could win by double-digits. Sometimes the game is difficult. And sometimes it’s as easy as looking at a decimated trenches and saying, “That isn’t good.”

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 21, Texans 10
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 5-2

Adam Slivon: Bucs Suffer Defeat At The Hands Of Another Rookie QB

As they prepare to face the Texans, this game is seen as being key for the Bucs to turn around a season that has quickly shifted in narrative. After starting the year 3-1 and well on their way to winning the NFC South, three straight losses have the Bucs under .500 and searching for answers on both sides of the ball. Will those answers come in Houston?

Texans QB CJ Stroud and WR Nico Collins – Photo by: USA Today

After surprisingly hanging around late against the Bills, it is clear that the offense and defense have issues that remain to be ironed out. The offensive issues are more pronounced, as the unit has failed to get into a rhythm. The Texans’ defense is not as stout as the Bills, but it all comes down to putting points on the scoreboard. That is not something the Bucs have done successfully in over a month since before their bye week. I expect them to look better than they have, but it remains a work in progress.

Defensively, it could be considered nit-picking when analyzing their issues. While the Bucs’ defense has limited points, they have not limited big plays and allowing opposing quarterbacks to get in a rhythm. After going 0-3 against rookie quarterbacks last year, they face their first rookie signal-caller in C.J. Stroud.

The second overall draft pick has been smart and disciplined with the football, only throwing one interception in seven games. Under offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, there are plenty of similarities to their scheme and the 49ers last season. You know how that turned out in Brock Purdy’s first career start last year.

With Nico Collins and Tank Dell as the two top receivers, the Texans have had no trouble making big plays. The Bucs’ secondary will need to play up on each of them and also generate more of a pass rush to disrupt Stroud from having a big game. 

Ultimately, this game will come down to whether or not the Bucs can keep up. They will have their hands full on Sunday and they will fall just short against the resurgent Texans in Houston.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Texans 24, Bucs 20
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 5-2