Bucs Contract Extension Projection: CB, Jamel Dean

Predicting NFL veteran contracts can be a difficult task. There are a lot of factors that play into negotiations between teams like the Bucs and players. There are factors that are visible to the outside world such as the salary cap, the player’s level of play over the course of their rookie deal, past deals for players at that position and how much available talent there is at the position. There are other factors that are less visible to the public, such as the player’s medicals. Finally, there are things that will affect the deal that remain relevant even though it shouldn’t – like the player’s original draft status.

So, with all of that in mind, what might a second contract look like for Bucs cornerback Jamel Dean, who is set to hit free agency?

Bucs CB Dean Is Going To Get Paid

Dean is set to receive a big payday. He is coming off of not only the best year of his four-year career, but also one of the better seasons of any cornerback in the NFL. In 2022, the former Auburn Tiger started 15 games while recording 57 combined tackles, one tackle for a loss, eight passes defensed and two interceptions. These marks gave him a total of 193 tackles, six TFLs, 41 passes defensed and seven interceptions for his career. Dean’s 77.9 Pro Football Focus grade was tied for ninth among all cornerbacks with at least 638 snaps this past season.

And his play has been extremely consistent over his career. His PFF grade in the years leading up to last year were 76.4, 76.4, and 71.8. His rank among all cornerbacks has not fallen outside of the top 20 in any qualifying season (2020-2022).

Dean’s play elevated in 2022 as he turned in to a shutdown corner for large swaths of the season and contributed elite run defense (with only one missed tackle for the entire season). He allowed only 32 of the 64 passes he was in coverage on to be caught for 412 yards and five touchdowns.

Dean will be a hot commodity this off-season, as he has shown a high ability in both man and zone coverage, an adeptness and willingness to play the run at a high level and an improving track record of health.

Dean Is The Top Corner On The Market In Free Agency

Another factor affecting Dean’s market will be the level of competition on the market. Dean is the top available player at his position. Dean’s age (26) is more favorable than other marquee free agents like James Bradberry (29), Cameron Sutton (27), Patrick Peterson (32), Jonathan Jones (29) and Marcus Peters (30). He has also shown a more consistent level of high-end play. Each one of those players has had an average or worse season in the last three years. The premium placed on the cornerback position and Dean’s position atop that list bodes well for his future financial prospects.

Dean’s Draft Status Will Affect His Offers

Bucs DC Todd Bowles and CB Jamel Dean – Photo by: USA Today

Like it or not, draft status still plays into second contracts. Of the 10 cornerbacks with the highest average annual value contracts, seven of them are former first-round picks, two (including Carlton Davis III) are former second-round picks and one (J.C. Jackson) was a former undrafted free agent. As a case in point, just last season, the Bucs re-signed Davis to a three year, $44.5 million contract.

Meanwhile, Charvarius Ward signed with the 49ers for three years and $40.5 million with comparable – if not better – numbers over the course of their careers despite being a former undrafted free agent. The difference in contracts went beyond the $4 million total difference. Ward’s deal only included $18,060,000 in fully guaranteed money, while Davis’ deal featured $24,500,000 in full guarantees.

Jackson defied this typical rule, with his five-year, $82.5 million contract despite his previous undrafted free agent status. However, Jackson was coming off of a platform year that was far and above anything Davis or Ward were able to put together.

What Would A Dean Contract Look Like And Will The Bucs Be Able To Afford It?

Bucs CB Jamel Dean – Photo by: USA Today

Looking at Dean’s consistent level of high-end play, his draft status, the fact that he is the top corner set to be on the market and his athletic traits, Dean is set to become a top-10 corner in terms of pay this offseason.

Given that the NFL salary cap is set to move from 2022’s $208.2 million to $224.8 million in 2023, Davis’ deal last year should be a reasonable floor for Dean this year. I would expect that given the lack of other options similar in age and talent level (which Davis had last year), I expect Dean to command a four-year deal in the range of $17 million-$18 million per year in average annual value. That would put the total deal around $68 million-$72 million. His fully guaranteed money should fall within $30 million-$36 million.

The structure of the deal could look something like this:

Signing Bonus: $16 million

Year One: $7 million base (fully guaranteed), $4 million signing bonus proration, $11 million cap hit.

Year Two: $12 million base (fully guaranteed), $4 million signing bonus proration, $16 million cap hit.

Year Three: $15 million base, $4 million signing bonus proration, $18 million cap hit.

Year Four: $19 million base, $4 million signing bonus proration, $23 million cap hit.

The fully guaranteed portion of the contract would equal 51.5% of the total contract and his three-year cash flow would be $50 million.

The Bucs could theoretically afford this contract. The initial cap hit in 2023 would be an affordable $11 million. The 2024 cap hit would be a bit tough depending on what the Bucs do at quarterback this offseason, but they could restructure to pull it down if need be. By year three, the guaranteed money would be gone, and the Bucs could easily walk away from the contract if money or performance required it. The question becomes whether they are willing to or not.

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