Bucs’ Defensive Style Coaching Leads To Offensive Results

Lost in the wave of positivity of the Bucs’ last-second, come-from-behind 17-16 win over the Saints on Monday Night Football is most likely going to be the questionable decisions that Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and Saints head coach Dennis Allen made leading up to that ultimate result. During the game my colleague Bailey Adams showed me a tweet that really struck a chord with me.

this game is a great advertisement to not hire a defensive coach

— Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal) December 6, 2022

Now many argue the reason for not hiring a defensive coach is because the league has become an offense-centric establishment and if you are to be successful you will have to replace your offensive coordinator on a regular basis, because any good one will wind up with their own head-coaching gig pretty quick. And if you don’t make the right hire a poor offense will sink you.

But watching this Bucs team over the past two weeks it has become apparent to me that defensive coaches just seem to be living in a past version of the NFL that has become obsolete. And it is costing these coaches wins. Last week I detailed the error in Bowles’ thinking when he opted to punt on fourth-and-2 from the Cleveland 37. Instead of taking the opportunity to go up by two scores, Bowles decided to play it safe. That decision potentially cost him the game in a 23-17 overtime loss at Cleveland.

Bucs vs. Saints Game Was A Face-Off Of Antiquated Thinkers

On Monday night Bowles had two additional opportunities to try and improve his chances of winning by going for it on fourth down. In both cases he decided to rely on an antiquated mindset that lessened the Bucs’ chances of winning. The first opportunity opened the fourth quarter when the Bucs were trailing 13-3. Faced with fourth-and-7 from the New Orleans’ 40, Bowles decided to rely on his punter Jake Camarda to try and pin the Saints deep in their own territory.

This decision, given the field position, was eerily similar to the decision the previous week in Cleveland. And just as the week before, Camarda failed to keep the ball out of the end zone. The result was a net of just 20 yards of field position. Had the Bucs attempted and converted the fourth down attempt they would have immediately been in field goal range with an opportunity to cut the Saints lead to just a single score.

TB decided to punt to NO from the NO 40 on 4th & 7 with 15:00 remaining in the 4th while losing 3 to 13.

With a Surrender Index of 33.32, this punt ranks at the 99.3rd percentile of cowardly punts of the 2022 season, and the 98th percentile of all punts since 1999.

— Surrender Index 90 (@surrender_idx90) December 6, 2022

Later, with 7:06 remaining in the game and trailing 16-3, Bowles had to make an admittedly tougher decision. Following a sack of quarterback Tom Brady on first down, the Bucs offense battled back to the original line of scrimmage of their own 25-yard line. With fourth-and-10 looming Bowles once again sent out the punt unit.

TB decided to punt to NO from the TB 25 on 4th & 10 with 7:06 remaining in the 4th while losing 3 to 16.

With a Surrender Index of 2.16, this punt ranks at the 68th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2022 season, and the 65th percentile of all punts since 1999.

— Surrender Index (@surrender_index) December 6, 2022

While not nearly egregious, this decision gave New Orleans the ball back with a two-score lead and less than seven minutes of game clock left. While the Bucs did ultimately come back and win, this decision was still one that might lead to a positive outcome more often than not.

And the normal platitudes that cautious coaches normally fall back on really didn’t apply to this decision. The Bucs defense had just allowed two consecutive 12-play, seven-minute scoring drives just before that possession.

Bowles Was Saved By The More Cautious Allen

Some will talk about Brady saving Bowles by orchestrating not one, but two improbable touchdown drives in the final five-and-a-half minutes of the game. Or some may point to the game-saving pass interference call that Mike Evans drew to set up the first Bucs touchdown of the game.

But all of this marginalizes the even more egregious fourth down decision Allen made that set up that initial Tampa Bay touchdown. On fourth-and-1 in plus territory Allen opted not to let his offense get the yard and effectively end any chance the Bucs had at making a comeback. Allen had an opportunity to ice the game but instead decided to “trust his defense” and take the ball out of his own team’s hands.

NO decided to punt to TB from the TB 44 on 4th & 1 with 5:31 remaining in the 4th while winning 16 to 3.

With a Surrender Index of 7.74, this punt ranks at the 92nd percentile of cowardly punts of the 2022 season, and the 89th percentile of all punts since 1999.

— Surrender Index (@surrender_index) December 6, 2022

Bowles’ cautious coaching mentality was saved by the even more cautious coaching of his rival. And for that Bucs fans should rejoice – and weep.