Bucs’ Draft Strategy Altered By Free Agency

Following the conclusion of the 2023 season, the Bucs had several holes on their roster as the team seeks to improve on its 9-8 record.

These included starting strong safety, free safety, both inside linebacker spots, wide receiver, left guard, kicker and quarterback. The team created an additional hole when they announced they would be releasing outside linebacker Shaq Barrett. Another one was created with the trade of cornerback Carlton Davis III

There were few surprises with the Bucs in the first wave of free agency.

Re-signing strong safety Jordan Whitehead was a pleasant surprise, but otherwise the status quo was expected and implemented. Tampa Bay re-signed Pro Bowl quarterback Baker Mayfield, Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans, linebacker Lavonte David, kicker Chase McLaughlin, defensive tackle Greg Gaines and running back Chase Edmonds. The team also used the franchise tag on All-Pro free safety Antoine Winfield Jr. These were expected and necessary moves to retain top internal talent.

Tampa Bay has already doled out contracts worth in excess of $167 million. These deals have helped the team fill five of the nine starting holes that were open.

“This is one of the greatest free agency hauls ever, but it’s our own guys,” Bucs general manager Jason Licht said on Wednesday. “We’ve got some Hall of Famers in here – Lavonte [and] Mike. It’s been incredible. I think it’s time that the national media realizes that we have some great players. They already know, but now they really know. It’s a great time for us.”

Free agency also helps to narrow the Bucs’ draft plan next month.

With quarterback, wide receiver, strong safety, free safety, kicker and one of the two inside linebacker spots now filled with returning or new free agents, the Bucs’ starting draft “needs” for 2023 have been whittled down to outside linebacker, guard, inside linebacker and cornerback. Tampa Bay would also like to upgrade the center position if possible in the draft and find some competition for Robert Hainsey, who has started the last two seasons in place of the injured Ryan Jensen. Unfortunately Jensen succumbed to his knee injury and retired this offseason.

Bucs Have In-House Options For Two Needs

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum Photo By: USA Today

Prior to the trade of cornerback Carlton Davis III, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles spoke glowingly of third-year player Zyon McCollum. Bowles asserted that McCollum would be a starter in 2024, although they were not sure at the time where that might be.

McCollum, a former fifth-round pick, played more than any other corner on the Bucs roster last year due to injuries to Davis and Jamel Dean, the team’s other starting cornerback. McCollum’s play improved drastically from his rookie campaign due to tighter coverage and much better tackling. Trading Davis to the Detroit Lions created a specific path for McCollum to slot into the starting lineup on the outside opposite Dean.

Last year the Bucs benched former starting linebacker Devin White in favor of K.J. Britt, who has been a core special teams player. Britt provided solid play in limited snaps in 2023. In just 160 snaps he recorded 29 tackles and a pass defense while playing stout run defense and surprisingly good pass defense. It is possible the team feels good about Britt playing next to David in 2024. Tampa Bay also has J.J. Russell and SirVocea Dennis, who played well in spot duty last year.

Still Several Needs Not Filled

Assuming Jason Licht and Todd Bowles are content with rolling into 2024 with Zyon McCollum and K.J. Britt ascending into their respective starting roles, there are still numerous holes that need to be addressed.

Outside Linebacker

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

At outside linebacker, despite the release of Shaq Barrett, who has subsequently signed a one-year deal with the Miami Dolphins, there is now a hole at the position due to the fact that there is not a clear-cut starter opposite YaYa Diaby. Tampa Bay has a deep reservoir of talent at the position with Joe-Tryon Shoyinka, Anthony Nelson, Markees Watts and Jose Ramirez all under contract.

Both Licht and Bowles had good things to say about the group, but both stopped short of saying they had their two starters already on the roster. Diaby had a promising rookie season and seems destined to slot into one of those spots. But Tryon-Shoyinka fell out of favor with the team mid-way through last season as he lost his starting spot to Diaby.

Nelson has carved out a role as a career backup. Ramirez and Watts have both flashed pass rush prowess (Ramirez in college, Watts in limited snaps last year as a rookie), but neither has shown enough for the Bucs to feel comfortable going into a new season following a Divisional round appearance with them penciled in as starters.

There is a good chance the Bucs still want to upgrade this room, but all of the best options in free agency have already signed. There are still a few solid mid-tier options available such as Jadeveon Clowney, Chase Young and Za’Darius Smith, but there has been no word the Bucs are in on any of them.

Left Guard

Bucs LG Matt Feiler – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Last year Matt Feiler and Aaron Stinnie combined to start all 17 games at left guard. Both are now free agents, and it looks like neither is set to return to the team at this point. Even if either were to be re-signed, both struggled to play above average consistently last year and upgrades can still be found.

Dalton Risner remains unsigned, as does Kevin Zeitler. Both would represent upgrades over Stinnie and Feiler.

Center

For two years running the Bucs have turned to 2021 third-round pick Robert Hainsey to start at center following the news that starter Ryan Jensen would miss the season due to injury. Hainsey has served in the role well, providing adequate but streaky play.

However, Hainsey is the type of player best served as a backup. Tampa Bay would feel good about him subbing in if a better starter goes down, but center is a position the Bucs would like to upgrade if they can this offseason. Hainsey is entering the final year of his rookie deal.

Bucs Draft Targets Become More Clear

Florida State WR Keon Coleman – Photo by: USA Today

With the retention of Antoine Winfield Jr. and addition of Jordan Whitehead the need at safety is de-prioritized quite a bit for the Bucs. Minnesota safety Tyler Nubin is now an unlikely option for the Tampa Bay at No. 26.

Mike Evans’ return reduces the need to select receiver. But it does not eliminate it. Trey Palmer had a solid rookie season, catching 39 of his 66 targets for 385 yards and three touchdowns. That is especially impressive considering he was a sixth-round pick. But trusting Palmer to solidify that position after there were stretches of inconsistency last year would be a large leap.

Finding a better No. 3 receiver would be ideal, and someone with starting potential in case of an injury to either Evans or Chris Godwin this season. And with Evans turning 31 in August and Godwin entering a contract year at age 28, the Bucs would be wise to find an eventual replacement for one or both of the team’s star receivers sooner rather than later.

The Bucs did well to structure Baker Mayfield’s contract in a way where they are not truly married to the quarterback past the 2024 season. They can get out of the deal as soon as 2025. So, quarterback is not a likely option early in the draft, but it cannot be ruled out if the right QB is available in the right round for Tampa Bay.

One Glaring Match

Oregon C Jackson Powers-Johnson – Photo by: USA Today

This year’s draft class has several positions that look to be deeper than others. Jason Licht said as much during the NFL Scouting Combine.

“Offensive tackle, offensive line, there’s a lot of interesting players,” Licht said in Indianapolis. “The receiver group is very good throughout. You’ve got some defensive linemen – maybe not strong, strong in terms of numbers at the top – but throughout once again. I don’t like to talk about weaknesses in a draft because you can always find some sleepers.”

With no obvious choices currently on the roster to play left guard and a deep offensive line draft class, it appears the Bucs are content to use the early parts of the draft to fill that particular need.

There are three players that have first-round buzz that fit the bill to fill in as a starter on the interior offensive line where between the hole at left guard and the desire for upgrade at center. Oregon center Jackson Power-Johnson, Duke left tackle Graham Barton and West Virginia center Zack Frazier could all be targets that would immediately have a path to the starting lineup, and thusly providing an immediate return on investment.

Barton has the skillset to move inside to guard or center at the next level. He started five games at center for the Blue Devils during his freshman season.

Other Positions That Will Provide Value At Pick No. 26

LSU WR Brian Thomas – Photo by: USA Today

If the Bucs don’t select an interior offensive lineman at 26 there are a few positions that will most likely line up well in terms of value in that range of the draft. The big one that Jason Licht noted was receiver. Many draft analysts are talking about this draft class being one of the deepest at receiver in years.

Pro Football Focus has seven receivers ranked in the top 32 of their 2024 NFL Draft big board. LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr., Georgia’s Ladd McConkey and Texas’ Adonai Mitchell all could be available when Tampa Bay is set to pick.

Yes, Mike Evans is back on a two-year deal, but Chris Godwin is set to be a free agent after 2024, and Trey Palmer is not a sure-fire option to develop into a starter. The best drafting teams look to fill needs a year or two out. Receiver makes sense to be a position to target for developmental depth.

Cornerback is another position where there could be several options that offer good value at pick No. 26. There is a chance Alabama’s Terrion Arnold may still be on the board when the Bucs pick, but it’s more likely that fellow Crimson Tide Kool-Aid McKinstry, Iowa State’s T.J. Tampa, Michigan’s Mike Sainristill or Missouri’s Ennis Rakestraw Jr. would be available.

Two Positions Stand Out

Beyond those positions, outside linebacker continues to stick out as a position where Jason Licht needs to make a move. Todd Bowles spoke about the need to improve the team’s four-man pass rush. But thus far the team has only subtracted, not added.

If I were a betting man (and I am), I would place a good deal of my chips on either an edge rusher or an interior offensive lineman being the Bucs’ pick come April 25.