Bucs Mailbag: Bucs Draft Questions – QB, LB, OLB

Managing your family’s wealth means more to Amuni Financial than simply allocating your assets. It means legacy planning, brokerage & advisory services, retirement accounts, college savings accounts and insurance services. With 40 years of experience, let Amuni Financial help you plan ahead and stay ahead.

Call Amuni Financial at (800) 868-6864 or visit Amuni.com.

Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds answers your questions from the @PewterReport Twitter account each week in the Bucs Mailbag. Submit your question to the Bucs Mailbag each week via Twitter using the hashtag #PRMailbag.  Here are the Bucs draft questions we chose to answer for this week’s edition.

QUESTION: If we do trade Devin White prior to or on draft day, what are our linebacker options in the draft? Do we prioritize linebacker over offensive line, safety, or edge rusher?

ANSWER: First of all, the Bucs are not going to trade Devin White. Bucs general manager Jason Licht has gone on the record saying he has no intention of trading the 25-year old linebacker. Licht has learned how to be patient over the years – look no further than this year’s free agency. Licht didn’t rush out and overpay cornerback Jamel Dean and linebacker Lavonte David and got both back at bargain prices.

Bucs ILB Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Licht also waited to fill the safety position and Ryan Neal emerged later in free agency. The same thing happened at guard with Matt Feiler. So, Licht will expect White to play on his fifth-year option. White really doesn’t have much of a choice and zero bargaining power. If he holds out, he won’t accrue a year toward free agency and he’ll be right back here next year having to play out his fifth-year option at age 26.

The only way White will get what he wants, which is a lucrative contract extension from Tampa Bay or another team, is to suit up in 2023 and play his best football. Even if the Bucs spend a premium pick on an inside linebacker, which they should do, don’t expect Licht to trade White. If Tampa Bay lets him walk after the 2023 season, the team will most likely get a third-round compensatory pick the following draft.

The Bucs shouldn’t necessarily prioritize linebacker over offensive line, edge rusher or safety. Licht and head coach Todd Bowles should draft the absolute best player at No. 19 – or whenever their first selection is – among those positions. The Bucs – and every NFL team – should draft the player and not the position.

One of my favorite draft prospects this year is Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell, who would make a great eventual replacement in 2024 for White or Lavonte David, who turns 34 next year. Campbell could be the first inside linebacker off the board in the second round. There isn’t an off-ball linebacker who merits a first-round grade.

QUESTION: Is there a viable linebacker who we could groom after round 3?

ANSWER: While I wouldn’t rule out the Bucs drafting an inside linebacker in the second or third round, it seems more likely that Tampa Bay could draft one on Day 3. I outlined four Day 3 prospects in last Friday’s SR’s Fab 5 column.

Auburn LB Owen Pappoe – Photo by: USA Today

Auburn’s Owen Pappoe makes a lot of sense because Bucs G.M. Jason Licht has turned to that school for several Tigers defenders, including linebacker K.J. Britt and cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis III. Pappoe was also the fastest linebacker at the NFL Scouting Combine, running a 4.39 in the 40-yard dash, which was actually faster than Devin White’s 4.42. The Bucs met with him informally at the NFL Scouting Combine.

One of the Day 3 linebackers the Bucs had a formal meeting with in Indianapolis was Indiana’s Cam Jones. He’s smart, good in coverage and always around the ball. He ran a disappointing 4.69 at the Combine, but topped that with a 4.6 time at his pro day.

Two more Day 3 options are Pittsburgh’s SirVocea Dennis and Duke’s Shaka Heyward. The team met with both informally at the Combine and are good blitzers. Both Dennis and Heyward would be good late-round fits in Todd Bowles’ defense.

QUESTION: Chances the Bucs draft Kentucky QB Will Levis if he falls?

ANSWER: That’s a great question. I know the Bucs brought Kentucky quarterback Will Levis in for a Top 30 visit. Was that a smokescreen or is there legit interest from Tampa Bay in the athletic, strong-armed passer? Will Levis even be there at No. 19, or will he be a Top 10 or Top 15 pick? And if he is there, how much do the Bucs like him enough to take another quarterback over more pressing needs like offensive tackle, edge rusher or linebacker?

Kentucky QB Will Levis – Photo by: USA Today

I would be concerned about the amount reps the Bucs could give their quarterbacks if it was a three-man race in training camp and the preseason. I’ve written about this before and discussed it on the Pewter Report Podcast. Splitting reps three ways – in a brand new offensive system – doesn’t seem smart. There wouldn’t be enough reps to go around to adequately make an evaluation about which QB should be the starter. Unless two of the QBs bomb in camp and one rises to the occasion.

And then would there be enough time – and reps – to adequately prepare the winner of the training camp battle for the season opener? But if Levis has an incredibly high grade from the scouting department it would be hard to pass him up. The NFL is a quarterback-driven league now more than ever, and the Bucs are desperate to find a capable successor for Tom Brady.

In my personal evaluation, I don’t think Levis is a first-round quarterback. He struggles with touch and accuracy on short and intermediate throws and over-relies on arm strength to rifle every pass. There are also some concerns about Levis’ pocket presence and decision-making. The Bucs’ draft plans have some more pressing needs than QB, and I’m more excited about next year’s quarterback class.

QUESTION: I’m curious why you aren’t high on Nolan Smith? According to PFF, he had 25.5 percent pass rush win rate, which was the fifth-highest of all pass rushers who played at least 20 percent of their teams snaps in 2022. He’s also elite at stopping the run.

ANSWER: I watch a lot of Georgia games during football season. I think I watched all but two games live last year, as my wife, Ashley, is from Georgia. I’ve watched the Bulldogs for years, dating back to Todd Gurley, because of their running backs and defensive stars. But what I’ve come to learn about Georgia’s defense is that sometimes the sum is better than its parts.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Bucs CB Carlton Davis III and OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Georgia has so many talented defenders that I think some of those players are better playing in the Bulldogs’ scheme surrounded by other talented players rather than on other teams at the next level. Defensive end Travon Walker, last year’s first overall pick from Georgia, is a prime example.

Walker was a tremendous athlete for the Bulldogs, but only totaled 9.5 sacks in three seasons, including a career-high six in 2021. So, it was no surprise that he only produced 3.5 sacks as a rookie in 15 games.

My biggest concern with Nolan Smith is the lack of sack production. When teams draft edge rushers, they want guys who can get to the quarterback – not just near the quarterback. Sacks aren’t the end all-be all statistic. Pressures have their place in evaluating edge rushers, too.

The picture of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes accompanying this section tells the story of “pressures.” In a Week 4 win at Tampa Bay, Mahomes is being tackled – almost sacked – by blitzing cornerback Carlton Davis III and outside linebacker Shaq Barrett is closing in fast. Both Davis and Barrett are pressuring Mahomes, but the two-time Super Bowl champion actually completed this pass for a first down. So in the end, this “pressure” didn’t matter for the Bucs, but a sack would have.

Smith had 11.5 sacks in four years, and the most sacks he’s ever had in any season was 4.5 in 2021. For a Bucs team that already has a guy missing as many sacks as he gets in Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, and a 30-year old outside linebacker coming off a torn Achilles tendon, I don’t think Tampa Bay can afford to draft a player in the first round that is not a proven sacker. Consider that both Iowa State’s Will McDonald and Kansas State’s Felix Anudike-Uzomah each had a single season with 11 sacks, and I just think there are better, more proven pass rushers available.

QUESTION: Any word on if Brian Branch ran another 40 at his pro day? I haven’t been able to find out if he did anywhere. If we draft him, do you think there are any MJ Stewart vibes of not having enough speed to hang in the slot?

ANSWER: Alabama safety Brian Branch is a football player with enough football speed to be drafted in the first round and excel in the NFL. His 4.58 time wasn’t enough to push Branch into the Top 10, but it should be fast enough to get him selected in the Top 20. Branch stood on that time and did not run at his pro day, which is likely a sign that 4.58 is a time that he’s regularly run during his pre-draft training.

Alabama S Brian Branch – Photo by: USA Today

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs draft Branch. The team needs a starting nickel defender, and Branch plays the position that Antoine Winfield Jr. tried to play last year for Todd Bowles’ defense. He’s one of the most sure tacklers in the entire draft, having missed just four tackles in three seasons, which is unheard of. Branch is smart and instinctive, and can also play box safety and free safety in base defense alongside Winfield, too.

I think Branch’s instincts and football I.Q. allow him to react fast and that allows him to play a tick faster than he times. While I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s around when the Bucs pick at No. 19, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s picked ahead of Tampa Bay, either. Safety typically isn’t a premium position that is selected in the Top 10 unless the player is an incredible athlete. Branch’s range seems to be between picks No. 11-20.

The post Bucs Mailbag: Bucs Draft Questions – QB, LB, OLB appeared first on Pewter Report.