Bucs Mailbag: Does Jason Licht Get A Pass?

Managing your family’s wealth means more to Amuni Financial than simply allocating your assets. It means legacy planning, brokerage & advisory services, retirement accounts, college savings accounts and insurance services. With 40 years of experience, let Amuni Financial help you plan ahead and stay ahead.

Call Amuni Financial at (800) 868-6864 or visit Amuni.com.

Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds answers your questions from the @PewterReport Twitter account each week in the Bucs Monday Mailbag. Submit your question to the Bucs Monday Mailbag each week via Twitter using the hashtag #PRMailbag.  Here are the questions we chose to answer for this week’s edition.

QUESTION: Jason Licht just went all in for the past three years and won a Super Bowl. Now it’s time to pay the bill. Because of the past three years and the good that came out of it, does Licht get a pass this year – no matter how bad it may be – knowing this could be a rebuild?

ANSWER: Jason Licht should get a pass even if the Bucs don’t make the postseason in 2023. Teams can’t win every year, nor can they always make the playoffs. Look no further than New England, which was a dynasty when Tom Brady was there. Since Brady left in 2020, the Patriots have gone 7-9, 10-7 and 8-9 with just one playoff berth – a first-round exit in 2021.

Even the Eagles had a bad season in between Super Bowl appearances. Philadelphia won the Super Bowl in 2017 with Doug Pederson. But after a pair of underwhelming 9-7 seasons and failing to get back to the NFC Championship Game, Pederson was fired after the Eagles went 4-11-1 in 2020. Two years later, they were back in the Super Bowl under Nick Sirianni.

Bucs GM Jason Licht and co-chair Joel Glazer – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

So heading into 2023, the Glazers should understand that Licht swung for the fences over the last three years and produced a Super Bowl championship and two more playoff appearances that came with two division titles. Most general managers would love to have that kind of track record.

The Glazers have put their trust in Licht and it’s paid off as he developed a championship-level roster over the years. Now, that roster needs to be tweaked and added to. More importantly, the Bucs’ salary cap needs to be reset. Tampa Bay needs to pay off its Super Bowl credit card this year, and that means absorbing all $35 million of Brady’s dead cap money this year. The Bucs can take their salary cap lumps this year, but in 2024, the team’s cap situation should be immensely better.

OverTheCap.com predicts Tampa Bay will have an estimated $85 million in cap space in 2024 as of right now. Granted, that cap room will decrease as the Bucs sign free agents and add draft picks this year who will be under contract in 2024. But if Licht and head coach Todd Bowles wind up finding the right quarterback and if they’ve made the right hire at offensive coordinator with Dave Canales, the Bucs could remain competitive in 2023 and even more so next year.

Even if the Bucs bottom out and win just three or four games, I can’t see Licht getting fired after the 2023 season. Good general managers are hard to find, and I think Licht has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to roster building. The Glazers have never trusted a general manager more than they have with Licht – and he’s earned that trust.

QUESTION: Despite all the sky is falling whining from fair-weather Bucs fans, I believe Tampa Bay is in much better shape than before Tom Brady. The Bucs will be contenders for the next decade. Prove me wrong.

ANSWER: Well, I really can’t prove you right or prove you wrong. That will be left up to whatever happens on the field this year by the players and the coaching staff. New offensive coordinator Dave Canales is unproven, as is Kyle Trask, who is the only quarterback currently under contract. That makes it tough to predict to success in 2023. But given the fact that this Bucs team is way more talented than the team Jason Licht inherited in 2014, there is less of a rebuilding job in Tampa Bay.

Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

There are plenty of key players who are still in their prime in All-Pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs, wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, defensive tackle Vita Vea, linebacker Devin White and defensive backs Carlton Davis III and Antoine Winfield Jr., plus some younger players with star potential. There is enough to build around and win with this season, especially on the defensive side of the ball if that unit can reload in free agency and the draft.

What helps is the fact that the NFC South is perhaps the most downtrodden division in the NFL these days. The Bucs won the division last year with an 8-9 record. Without any star power at the quarterback position in the NFC South right now, it’s completely up for grabs again this year.

Wouldn’t it be an indictment on former offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, whose offense lacked adaptability and creativity while averaging just 18.2 points per game in 2022, if Canales’ offense scored more points per game in 2023? Especially with a quarterback like Kyle Trask or a journeyman veteran after Leftwich had Tom Brady last year? I’m not saying that’s going to happen – but I wouldn’t rule that out, either.

QUESTION: Will you spearhead a campaign for Jason Licht and Co. to put it all on the table to get Lamar Jackson?

ANSWER: No, I really can’t. That’s just fantasy football/Madden football conjecture, really. While it would be fun to see the Bucs transition from Tom Brady to Lamar Jackson, that won’t happen for three big reasons. First, the Ravens will do everything they can to keep Jackson in Baltimore, including using the exclusive franchise tag. I think Jackson wants to stay with the Ravens. He just wants a fully guaranteed contract that is in the realm of – or more than – what Deshaun Watson got in Cleveland.

Bucs ILB Devin White and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson – Photo by: USA Today

Second, the Bucs just don’t have the cap room this year to take on a massive contract like Jackson’s, which would be around $50 million per year. Tampa Bay has 22 unrestricted free agents and acquiring such an expensive player like Jackson would mean that the Bucs would have a huge number of holes they wouldn’t be able to fill because they are currently $56 million over the salary cap. That means they have to clear $56 million in cap space before they even sign one free agent back or add a new player.

And finally, the Bucs don’t have the draft capital to pull off a trade for Jackson. Signing him to an offer sheet (that the Ravens could match) with the franchise tag would mean Tampa Bay would have to surrender this year’s first-round pick and next year’s first-round pick. On the surface, that actually doesn’t sound bad when it comes to acquiring a top-notch quarterback. But again, the Bucs have a ton of holes due to free agency and will need their draft picks to address other areas of need.

QUESTION: What are the chances the Bucs are gonna draft a QB in round 1? Also, I think the Bucs could take a strong look at Hendon Hooker, who would fit Dave Canales’ system very well. Thoughts?

ANSWER: I’m not saying the Bucs won’t draft a quarterback in the first round, but I think it’s unlikely. There are four quarterbacks who will likely wind up being first-round picks. Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud figure to be Top-5 picks, while Kentucky’s Will Levis will likely be drafted somewhere between picks No. 5 and 15. He’s expected to perform well athletically at the NFL Scouting Combine, along with Florida’s Anthony Richardson, who is an amazing athlete with great size and arm strength, but struggles with accuracy.

Richardson has been a popular player to mock to Tampa Bay, but the Bucs haven’t even given Kyle Trask a fair shot to compete for the starting job yet. Tampa Bay has a late second-rounder and two years of development invested in Trask. Now, it’s Trask’s third season and Tom Brady is gone. It’s time to find out if he can quickly pick up a more QB-friendly scheme and win the starting job. The Bucs will add at least one veteran quarterback for competition, and if the team drafts one, it will be after the first round.

Senior Bowl QBs Clayton Tune, Hendon Hooker, Tyson Bagent and Max Duggans – Photo by: USA Today

There are just too many needs on this team that have to be addressed in the draft, specifically in the first round. If Tampa Bay were to draft a QB in the first round, that signal-caller automatically jumps ahead of Trask in the depth chart hierarchy. But drafting another young QB in the middle rounds or late rounds might make some sense to hedge the team’s bets in case Trask is not a starting-caliber quarterback.

Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker could be an interesting fit because he played in a similar QB-friendly scheme under Josh Heupel. In his last two years with the Volunteers, Hooker completed 68.8% of his passes with 58 touchdowns and just five interceptions. That’s an absurd ratio, and Dave Canales will admire how Hooker protects the football. Yet, Hooker needs to work on passing the ball when pressured. Too often, he looks to escape the pocket and scramble rather than move and throw.

The only real downside to Hooker is his age (25) and the fact that he tore his ACL at the end of the 2022 regular season. Hooker will miss OTAs and mini-camps, and he won’t be ready for training camp. That will slow down his introduction to the NFL immensely, as he’ll be rehabbing well into his rookie season. Hooker wouldn’t be a factor in the QB competition in 2023, which is a critical year for Todd Bowles. If Hooker was completely healthy, I could see him being more of an option for Tampa Bay on Day 2.

QUESTION: The Bucs interviewed so many candidates for the offensive coordinator job, why not Eric Bieniemy? The situation in Washington – head coach on hot seat, QB with question marks – looks familiar.

ANSWER: There was a reason why Eric Bieniemy didn’t land a head coaching job for years. Reportedly, he didn’t interview well. As LeSean McCoy, a former Chiefs running back, said recently, Bieniemy didn’t have nearly as much to do with the offense as head coach Andy Reid did. The playbook was Reid and he had a huge hand in the play-calling direction, too.

In the end, Bieniemy had to make a lateral move from the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator role to the Commanders’ offensive coordinator job – although now he gets to call plays and run the offense. We’ll see how he fares without the likes of Reid looking over his shoulder, much less not having Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and Travis Kelce at tight end.

Ron Rivera went out on a limb to hire Bieniemy, who wasn’t in high demand. The Washington franchise has stalled out under Rivera’s leadership (7-9, 7-10, 8-8-1 in three years), and he will likely be jettisoned after this season if Bieniemy fails as a play-caller. Rivera might become the NFL’s next Jeff Fisher this season if he doesn’t produce a winning record.

The post Bucs Mailbag: Does Jason Licht Get A Pass? appeared first on Pewter Report.