Bucs Mailbag: How Long Will Baker Mayfield Be Bucs’ Starter?

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Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds answers your questions from the @PewterReport Twitter account each week in the Bucs Mailbag. Submit your question to the Bucs Mailbag each week via Twitter using the hashtag #PRMailbag.  Here are the Bucs questions we chose to answer for this week’s edition.

QUESTION: Baker Mayfield is deserving of being starter but he’s still prone to his fair share of turnovers. With the improvements and capabilities Kyle Trask has shown, what do you think Mayfield’s leash as starter will be like?

ANSWER: Bucs head coach Todd Bowles is heading into the 2023 season with the expectation that Baker Mayfield will be his season-long starter. He’s not thinking about Mayfield faltering as the starter due to turnovers or getting injured. But you asked the question and I’m going to answer it.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Mayfield’s leash is going to be determined by wins first and foremost, as well as his performance, which makes it somewhat tricky to gauge how long Bowles would stick with him if the Bucs get off to a slow start. If Tampa Bay starts the season 1-3 or 1-4 but Mayfield is playing well and isn’t the culprit, he’ll stay under center. Conversely, if the team starts off strong with a 3-1 record, but Mayfield is underwhelming I think Bowles would stick with Mayfield and hope he can improve his play with more time in Dave Canales’ system. If the Bucs get off to a rocky start combined with poor play from Mayfield then that’s a different story.

The good news for Bowles and the Bucs is that Kyle Trask has proven to the team that he is a capable NFL quarterback. Right now he’s a legitimate No. 2 quarterback and has shown some traits to where he could be a starter-level QB in the league. Trask has played well this preseason, especially against the Jets, and could have really had a big night if not for a few overthrows against the Ravens.

We learned this preseason that the Bucs have a pair of QBs in Mayfield and Trask who can effectively operate this offense, so Bowles does have options moving forward. But for Mayfield, who is on a one-year, prove-it deal in Tampa Bay, he’s gunning for a lucrative long-term contract extension from the Bucs – or a big deal elsewhere. He’s got plenty of motivation to prove that he can truly be a franchise QB again.

QUESTION: We’ve seen this scenario every year with the NFL. Coaches go with the veteran because they are scared. I get Baker Mayfield and experience. However if you can go 7-9, 8-8 and compete for division title with Kyle Trask, then your chances of coming back are better. Am I wrong?

ANSWER: You’re not necessarily wrong, but it remains to be seen if the Bucs could go 7-9 or 8-8 with an unproven – yet improved – Kyle Trask under center. Trask has developed nicely this summer, but there are still some plays that show he has more learning to do. He totally didn’t see a blindside sack coming against the Jets, and he had a few overthrown passes to wide open receivers he missed, including a touchdown, against the Ravens.

I don’t think Todd Bowles was scared to pick Kyle Trask as his starter this year. I think Bowles was smart to go with the guy that has the most experience in Baker Mayfield to be the starting QB. Trask has nine pass attempts in a regular season game compared to Mayfield’s 2,259 career attempts. That’s a big difference. I can’t blame Bowles for wanting to go with the more experienced option, especially with Mayfield having a sensational preseason in limited opportunities.

QUESTION: Why is our pass defense suspect to huge chunk plays? Seems like we have a lot of money wrapped up into starting corners who struggle in zone coverage.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and OLB YaYa Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANSWER: I assume you are referring to the Ravens’ initial scoring drive on Saturday night. Baltimore backup quarterback Josh Johnson was 4-of-4 for 80 yards and a touchdown against the Tampa Bay starting defense. Granted, it was not a stellar showing by the first-team defense on that opening drive. But the defense did force a third-and-long and get off the field with a three-and-out on the next series.

I wouldn’t be too concerned by what you saw from the Bucs defense against the Ravens. It’s the preseason and Todd Bowles was calling some vanilla defenses on Saturday night. He’s saving most of the good stuff for the Vikings and the regular season in Week 1. And keep in mind that this was the first game action for cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean and safety Ryan Neal this preseason. They had some rust they needed to shake off.

The Bucs will continue to play some zone coverage, as Bowles primarily deploys Cover 3 and Cover 1 a bunch. He’ll mix in some man coverage too, of course. Bowles needs to deploy Davis and Dean more in press-man coverage this season. Both cornerbacks are tall, long, strong and have the skills to play press-man.

QUESTION: After cut downs, is there a position group the Bucs are going to take an extra look at from guys who were just let go?

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and OL Nick Leverett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANSWER: We’ll find out the final roster cuts by 4:00 p.m. on Tuesday when the Bucs officially pare their roster down to 53. Then we’ll see which positions truly could use some bolstering. I could see the Bucs try to find another competent center to compete with Nick Leverett for the backup role behind Robert Hainsey.

I think Leverett is a better guard than he is a center, and Hainsey is one play away from forcing Leverett to do the snapping. The Bucs released John Molchon, who can play guard and center, and will likely try to put him on the practice squad, which is where he’s been for the past three seasons.

Of course the Bucs will always try to upgrade their roster with waiver wire pick-ups and acquisitions before the season starts. In 2014, Jason Licht picked up defensive end Jacquies Smith off waivers in September and he wound up being a two-year starter before suffering an ACL injury in 2016. In 2018, Licht claimed edge rusher Carl Nassib off waivers and he too wound up being a starter that year and a team captain in 2019.

And of course running back Leonard Fournette was signed before Week 1 in 2020 and wound up helping the Bucs win Super Bowl LV. Tampa Bay’s 53-man roster won’t be set for Week 1 until later this week – not on Tuesday.

QUESTION: How does Keith Armstrong still have a job? Special teams under him have been so bad. Byron Leftwich was let go for bad coaching – yet Armstrong still here.

Bucs ST coordinator Keith Armstrong and head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANSWER: I agree that the Bucs special teams have been average at best, or below average, in certain areas since Keith Armstrong took over as special teams coordinator in 2019. However, things might be looking up for Tampa Bay’s special teams this year.

The Bucs might have finally found a dazzling return specialist in Deven Thompkins, who got some good experience at the end of last year when he was brought up from the practice squad. Thompkins is fast, explosive and hard to find on the field at 5-foot-7, 155 pounds. Rookie Trey Palmer also has some promise as a returner.

Chase McLaughlin was perfect on all of his PATs and field goals in the preseason. He looks to be a capable replacement for Ryan Succop, and perhaps an upgrade given his range. Jake Camarda has the potential to be a Pro Bowl-caliber punter. He just needs to become more consistent, especially with punts downed inside the 20. We’ll see what happens this season, but I’m actually optimistic about Tampa Bay’s special teams in 2023.