Bucs Offense’s Reliance On QB Play Exposed

What has happened to the juggernaut that was the Bucs offense from 2019-2021? Gone are the stretches where 27 points were a forgone conclusion and 40 was a regular possibility. In its stead is an attack so pedestrian it has become one of the worst in the NFL.

With two games left to play in week 14, the Bucs rank 28th in the NFL in points scored. Many have started to lay the blame at the feet of the future first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback manning the helm of the ship. And to a certain degree you can blame Tom Brady for the offense’s woes. But maybe not in the way that you might think.

As with any nuanced discussion that involves multiple moving parts, it is important to consider context. Let’s first look at what else has changed with this offense and how that has affected Brady and what is being asked of him because of it.

Bucs Offensive Line Has Regressed Tremendously

And there are so many things that can be pointed to as to the why in this equation. The turnover on the offensive line is certainly a contributing factor. Through Week 11 you could argue the Bucs were receiving better play at just one, maybe two, positions along the line this year over the past two. That would have been at right tackle, where All-World tackle Tristan Wirfs had seemingly elevated his level of play for the second consecutive year. At right guard, this year’s starter Shaq Mason has been about as good, perhaps slightly better, than last year’s starter, Alex Cappa.

But from center to left tackle things have cratered substantially. Following the loss of starting center Ryan Jensen, backup Robert Hainsey has played admirably. He has shown himself to be a starting-caliber player is still a giant drop off from the Pro Bowl level of play of Jensen.

At left guard, no one could have been reasonably been expected to replace Ali Marpet following his retirement. Marpet, who has a strong case to join the Bucs Ring of Honor one day as the best offensive guard in franchise history not only locked down his spot on the line, but also elevated the play of the lineman next to him.

The Bucs opted to try and fill his spot with a rookie in Luke Goedeke, who was transitioning from the right side to the left; from tackle to guard; and from the MAC to the NFL. The results of that experiment were nothing short of an abject failure. The position has stabilized more recently as Nick Leverett has taken over and elevated the performance from the position. But he is nowhere near the caliber of player Marpet was.

And finally, at left tackle, Donovan Smith has been a shell of the version of himself that helped protect Tom Brady’s blindside on the way to a Super Bowl and division title. Smith’s regression isn’t something that general manager Jason Licht could have predicted, but nevertheless it is one more shovel of dirt into the grave for this Bucs offense.

This drop-off in play has not only affected the Bucs’ league-worst running game, it has also forced their quarterback to hasten his time to throw and make decisions to go with check down options and hot routes on much shorter developing routes that fail to produce the chunk plays that a Bruce Arians designed offense is known for.

Playmakers Can’t Make Plays After The Catch

Another area that has reduced the Bucs offensive force into an offensive farce has been the one-dimensionality of their pass catchers. Looking at the best receivers in the game right now, you see a who’s who of dudes who can separate and make plays after the catch. Think Justin Jefferson, JaMarr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Devonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Davante Adams, and Jaylen Waddle.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs, who thought they had boasted one of the best receiver rooms in the NFL at the outset of the year have quickly found out that their room is much more limited than many of their contemporaries. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – supported by Russell Gage, Julio Jones, and Scotty Miller – have struggled to create the kind of separation that other receivers are creating throughout the league. And once they do catch the ball, they rarely add yardage after the catch to a similar degree as their contemporaries.

Consider this. The Bucs receivers’ rate as some of the worst in the league at generating separation. Evans is 95th among the 122 qualified receivers a in the NFL per Next Gen Stats at 2.6 yards. Godwin is 89th at 2.7 yards. Jones and Miller rank 55th and 56th at 3.0 respectively. Only Gage has a mark in the Top 20 at 3.5 yards of separation. By failing to create space between themselves and defenders, the Bucs receivers are forcing every throw to be a tight window attempt with little margin for error.

The other byproduct of this minimal space is a failure to create yardage after a catch is secured. Once again, per Next Gen Stats, the Bucs receivers rank dreadfully low in this area. Miller ranks 121st (1.6 yards), Evans 107th (2.9), Gage 91st (3.2), Godwin 50th (4.9). Jones is the lone receiver ranking in the Top 25, coming in right at 25th with a 5.4-yard mark.

When the receivers in your offense can’t separate and can’t create after the catch, whether it be by design or due to their skill sets, it raises the expectations required of your quarterback play and lowers the margin of error that quarterback has in order to be effective.

The Running Game Isn’t “Running” Any Interference

Perhaps the Bucs’ passing attack could be helped by less reliance on it. After all, Brady leads the league for the third straight year in pass attempts by a healthy margin. If the Bucs just stopped passing so much they may find a more balanced attack that can help improve efficiency, right? That has been the refrain from the Bucs coaching staff for the entirety of this year.

Except consider A) they were successful in 2020 and 2021 with a “pass-happy” approach, and B) they have legitimately tried a more concerted effort to involve the running game. The problem lies in the fact that that running game has been downright abysmal. It has contributed heavily to the team falling behind in games, forcing it to turn back into a pass-first attack that relies on its superstar quarterback to make throw after throw after throw.

“I think all year we could never get off to fast starts and it turns into a pass-a-thon,” Brady said after the team’s 35-7 loss to the 49ers. “It’s hard to play football like that.”

This year the Bucs offense through week 13 averaged -0.201 expected points added per rush, which is dead last in the NFL. Compare that to 2020-2021 when they averaged -0.0688 expected points added per rush, placing them at 19th over that time period.

The Bucs rushing attack features two running backs who are among the worst in the league in rushing yards over expected in Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White.

That combined with the aforementioned offensive line struggles, where Wirfs is the only offensive lineman with a Pro Football Focus run blocking grade above 70, and you end up with a rushing attack that actively puts the offense in disadvantageous position time after time.

An Offensive Philosophy That Refuses To Modernize

Despite the poor rushing efficiency, Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich has chosen to put an emphasis on running the ball early in series. When you combine that focus with that inefficiency you wind up with a lot of third downs. Entering Sunday night’s game, the Bucs had faced third down 173 times on the year. That tied them with the Chicago Bears for the fourth most third downs in the league this year.

Bucs OC Byron Leftwich – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The rest of the company in the bottom five? The Colts, Commanders and Chargers. Those five teams (Bucs included) all rank in the bottom half in the league in scoring.

Whether it be through tweets, questions in press conferences or stories, we at Pewter Report have belabored this seeming disconnect between the Bucs’ strengths and weaknesses and how they lean into/away from them. I won’t spend another 500 words on it. You can read more here, here, and here.

On top of that the Bucs offensive philosophy is still very dependent on a passing attack that can regularly connect on deep throws. And this is where Brady has fallen off this year.

While he is still taking his fair share of deep shots (fifth in the NFL in pass attempts of 20+ air yards with 54), he has connected on far too few of them. Brady’s 18 completions on those attempts rank tied for 10th in the league. His 33.33% completion percentage in these situations is tied for 17th.

Compare that to just last year where he was first in attempts with 88, third in completions with 37, 10th in completion percentage at 42.0% and generating 3.3 more yards per attempt (12.9 vs 9.6) and you get a much different offense. And in 2020 the numbers were even more impressive with 119 attempts (1st), 45 completions (1st again), 37.8% completion percentage (12th) with a yards per attempt of 12.7.

When you take the verticality out of an Arians/Leftwich offense you are left with a very lackluster product.

Bucs Brady Can’t Elevate Like He Used To

This is quite a bit of adversity for a 45-year-old quarterback to be able to overcome and elevate from. An offensive line that has taken several steps backwards. A receiving corps that can’t get open to the same degree as other corps in the league and can’t create after the catch. A running game and offensive philosophy that is putting him in worst situations, rather than easier ones.

Brady has overcome obstacles like this in the past. He has helmed offenses that featured linemen the likes of Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon before. Brady has turned street free agents and late Day 3 picks into superstar receivers before as well (Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan), so he has shown he can overcome targets who aren’t the best at getting open or getting yards after catch. And Brady has overcome less-than-amazing play-calling in the past (see 2020, 2021).

But at 45, he isn’t able to overcome ALL of that at once. The last time he tried was in 2019 when his New England receiving corps diminished, and his offensive line struggled. That year his completion percentage and yards per attempt were some of the lowest in his career.

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

And you are seeing the same thing this year. The offensive line isn’t going to get much better. Wirfs’ return will provide some improvement, but the rest of the line is what it is at this point.

That leaves the play-calling as the lone option to help Brady and the offense squeeze every last drop of productivity possible in what may be Brady’s last hurrah in Tampa Bay. Improved play-calling could lessen the number of third downs that the offense is in and scheme up more separation and yards after catch for the Bucs’ playmakers. But to this point the Bucs’ coaching staff has been loath to make any such changes.

If they continue to think their quarterback can bail them out of poor decisions, they are mistaken. He’s just not that guy anymore.

This offense, either through conscious design, or as a byproduct of is asking Brady to make difficult throw after difficult throw with pressure crashing down on him time and time again. And over the past two years Bucs fans have seen Brady deliver in these situations so they have become accustomed to trusting he will be able to do it.

But this year is different. The throws are there, but less often. The deep shots are few and far between – hidden among the underthrows … and the overthrows.

It doesn’t have to be this way. The difference between the Bucs philosophy and other options could not have been starker on Sunday in San Francisco. Standing on the other sideline was a head coach that lost not just his starting quarterback, but his primary backup as well.

In their stead stood a seventh-round rookie making his first career NFL start. “Mr. Irrelevant” Brock Purdy looked more like a first overall pick than a last overall pick. Mike Shanahan designed and called a game plan that took pressure off of his quarterback rather than put more on him. It allowed him to thrive by having the surrounding pieces do the heavy lifting.

The results were a 35-7 shellacking of the Bucs that could have been more if the 49ers hadn’t called off the dogs in the second half.