Bucs WR Trey Palmer Outperformed His Draft Position in Year 1

The Bucs took one of the 33 receivers in the 2023 NFL Draft. Trey Palmer was selected 191st overall. He was the 23rd receiver selected.

But when you look at the overall production Palmer created as compared to the rest of his draft class, he can only be described as a steal after year one.

Trey Palmer’s Year One Production

During his rookie campaign Trey Palmer was targeted 70 times, catching 42 passes for 473 yards and four touchdowns (regular season and playoffs combined). Those stats position him well above his draft status. Among rookies, Palmer ranked 11th in targets and catches, 12th in receiving yards and catch rate, and tied for eighth in touchdowns. Overall, it would be safe to say that Palmer played as about the 11th or 12th best receiver of the 2023 rookie class.

The 11th receiver selected last year was Cedric Tillman, taken by the Browns with the 74th overall pick in the third round. The 12th receiver was Josh Downs, also taken in the third round, 79th overall by the Colts.

Palmer was one catch shy of Jonathan Mingo, who the Panthers took in the second round, 39th overall. In essence, one could argue that Palmer played like a Day 2 wide receiver rather than a late Day 3 pass catcher.

Bucs Needed Trey Palmer Sooner Than Expected

The Bucs’ original plan for Trey Palmer most likely did not include him logging 600 routes in year one. However, once the team lost Russell Gage for the season in training camp they were left without a reliable number three receiver on roster. Between Palmer, fellow rookie Rakim Jarrett and second-year receiver Devin Thompkins, Tampa Bay’s depth chart beyond their top two guys – Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – had combined for five catches and 32 yards for their combined careers.

Initially the team split their WR3 snaps almost evenly between Palmer and Thompkins. Through the first two games of the season Palmer logged 58 snaps on offense to Thompkins’ 50. From then on Palmer out-snapped Thompkins 3.5:1.

Palmer really hit his stride down the stretch with the Bucs. From Week 16 through the end of the playoffs Palmer averaged 4.25 targets, 2.6 catches and 44.8 yards per game with two touchdowns. Over this time frame the team started to really use his calling-card speed.

Palmer’s average depth of target during that five-week stretch was 12.0. Up until that point his ADOT had been 10.7, and if not for a Week 6 game against Detroit where he averaged over 25 yards per target that number would have been 8.7. As a matter of fact, in 10 of those first 14 games Palmer averaged under 10 yards per target.

But as the Bucs offense transitioned Palmer from a decoy/screen option to a legitimate intermediate to deep threat the entire offense started to improve.

Silver lining of the NO game? Trey Palmer. It WAS his coming out party. Arrow up on this guy. pic.twitter.com/PyXT1cXI4z

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) January 2, 2024

Bucs May Look To Push Trey Palmer in 2024

Bucs WR Trey Palmer – Photo by: USA Today

While Trey Palmer’s upside is that of a legitimate No. 2 receiver, he was far from a polished product last year. With the expected release of Russell Gage, he is currently unofficially penciled in as the team’s No. 3 receiver headed into the offseason (assuming Mike Evans returns). I use the term “penciled” purposefully, because the team would be wise to seek an upgrade in 2024. And they very well could be. That’s not to say that Palmer couldn’t be that guy next year. And he is likely to improve from year one to year two.

But pushing Palmer by bringing in competition should only keep the Bucs receiving corps as one of the best in the league. With no guarantee that Evans will return and Chris Godwin entering the last year of his current contract, the Bucs need to look at what that receiving room will look like in two to three years’ time.

With a decent crop of potential free agents and an incredible draft class, there is a cornucopia of opportunities for the team to add additional talent to push Palmer to earn a starting role as opposed to being “penciled in” for one.