Building a case for the Bills to trade back in the 2024 NFL Draft

Our third and final thought exercise involves the Bills acquiring more draft choices via a trade-back in this year’s draft

With the 2024 NFL Draft rapidly approaching, we’ll soon know which young players the Buffalo Bills will add to their continuing pursuit of a Super Bowl title. In a year where the Bills seem poised to transform the roster after moving on from multiple veteran mainstays, the Bills could truly go in any direction with this year’s draft.

In this series, we’ll look to spark discussion and make the case for the Bills to do one of three things: either stand pat in the draft without making trades, trade up in the first round to select a particular future star, or trade down to acquire more picks. Clearly, the Bills won’t do only one of these things in real life; however, there are legitimate cases to be made for multiple avenues here, and we wanted to explore a few options in the lead-up to the NFL Draft.

Some ground rules and disclaimers before we begin. We used the draft simulator at Pro Football Network to provide a consistent, easy-to-use database on which we could base our scenarios. Obviously, none of the draft simulators available are perfect, and they each value prospects differently, so players who are available at particular spots in the draft very well may not be available at that time in reality. In the specific scenarios written about here, we only followed one strategy — so in the trade-back scenario, we did not trade up at all, and in the stand-pat scenario, we didn’t trade at all.

Finally, a note on how I valued Buffalo’s areas of need. I approached this exercise knowing that the Bills absolutely need a stud wide receiver, someone capable of starting right away. I also know that the Bills need a starting safety, rotational pieces at defensive end and defensive tackle, and a center. Those are my top five needs, and they come in that exact order. I valued a safety higher than the defensive linemen because of the way the Bills rotate along the defensive line—and the way they don’t rotate in the defensive secondary.

And with that, here’s our third and final scenario, which includes a world where general manager Brandon Beane remains patient, acquiring picks and trading back in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The Case for Trading Back

Buffalo’s positions of need are clear as day. Fortunately for the Bills, there is a lot of depth at those positions. Given the amount of depth there, it’s reasonable to acquire more bites at the apple rather than jumping up the board for one big swing. There are going to be receivers with high grades who fall down the draft board, and in an offseason where the Bills need to add depth on the edges of the roster, that could be a recipe for a trade-down to acquire more picks as a result.

While Brandon Beane has transformed the roster this offseason, jettisoning veterans in favor of a youth movement, much of that youth has yet to arrive. He can facilitate the newer, younger, more athletic Bills he envisions for this season and beyond by adding a few more choices in a strong draft. Especially along the defensive line, Buffalo needs to add rotational pieces who not only can help now, but also in the future. With Von Miller, DaQuan Jones, and DeShawn Williams north of 30 years old, and Austin Johnson set to turn 30 next month, the Bills will need a youth infusion up front sooner rather than later.

Buffalo’s tight proximity to the salary cap this season has been well documented, which only increases the need for Beane to hit on multiple draft picks this spring. The best way to increase your odds of winning the lottery is to buy more tickets, and trading back would be doing just that: giving the team more chances to hit the jackpot in the league’s annual selection process.

The Draft

Entering this particular scenario, I knew I would have to channel my inner Tom Petty. While I was hoping for certain wide receivers to be, well, “Free Fallin’” — I also know that “The Waiting” is the hardest part. However, I approached it by following the guidelines I laid out above: There is value in the depth at Buffalo’s positions of need, and by acquiring some extra picks, I could address the back end of the roster later on in the draft.

To me, the ideal teams to trade with if Brandon Beane plans on moving back in the draft are the Carolina Panthers (No. 33, 39, and 65), the Houston Texans (No. 42 and No. 59), and the Arizona Cardinals (No. 35 and No. 66).

The Kansas City Chiefs were the first team to offer me a deal, and I moved back four spots initially. They offered No. 32 and No. 95 for No. 28, and I countered by asking for No. 174 — a pick they had acquired in a fictional deal with the Dallas Cowboys — in addition to that. They accepted, so I had the first of my trades.

However, I still had plenty of receivers on my board who fit the Bills, so to speak, so I looked to go back into Round 2 while acquiring more draft choices. I ended up striking a deal with the New York Giants, who gave up picks No. 47, 70, and 107 for picks No. 32 and 128. Perhaps I broke my own rule by trading for a pick higher than that fourth-round selection Buffalo has, but I justified its inclusion in this deal by balancing the ledgers a bit.

In doing this, I made a problem for myself. My real target was Oregon’s Troy Franklin, who ended up going at No. 41 overall to the Green Bay Packers. I liked Ladd McConkey, as well, but he was drafted No. 39 overall by Carolina. Instead, I snagged South Carolina’s Xavier Legette at No. 47 overall. He’s a player whose strengths and weaknesses we discussed in our article about standing pat, so I won’t rehash that here.

At No. 60 overall, I bolstered the defensive line by selecting Ohio State’s Michael Hall Jr. He’s a ridiculous athlete who could work as an excellent substitute for Ed Oliver as the 3-tech in Buffalo’s defensive scheme. Whereas his lack of overall size (he’s listed somewhere between 290 and 300 pounds and, amazingly, some scouts consider him to be undersized) might cause him to wear down on some teams — in a scheme that relies as heavily on rotation as Buffalo’s, he could be the perfect guy to add pass-rush juice for 20 plays per game while spelling Oliver. While I view safety to be the bigger overall need in comparison to the defensive line, I thought that Hall’s athletic profile coupled with the additional draft picks I’d acquired on Day 2 made him the better choice than a defensive back at this spot.

By trading back twice, I added two picks in Round 3, which could really help the Bills to bolster their depth. Knowing that I’d taken care of two of the Bills’ three biggest needs, I knew that I could draft the best players available. I went with Miami’s Kamren Kinchens at No. 70 overall to serve as the free safety in Buffalo’s defense, and then I doubled down on the defensive tackle spot by selecting Texas A&M nose tackle McKinley Jackson at No. 95 overall. I talked about Kinchens in the article about trading up, as well, and I picked him with the same caveat about Cole Bishop (who went No. 81 to the Indianapolis Colts). In Jackson, I snagged a mammoth space-eater who could develop into a long-term replacement for DaQuan Jones at the 1-tech.

In Round 4, I made it my mission to manifest a Jaylen Wright-to-the-Bills selection, but without my pick at No. 128, I had to change strategy a bit. At No. 107, I prioritized the pass rush by selecting Houston Christian defensive end Jalyx Hunt — a superb athlete who I discussed in a previous article. The former college safety could immediately slot in as a passing-down specialist, and he has one of the game’s best to learn from in Von Miller. I also assumed that I could select Wright with my second choice in the round at No. 133 overall.

Dear reader, this round showcased one of the pitfalls of standing pat — and even of trading down. Players I would have selected at this spot included Ole Miss defensive end Cedric Johnson (No. 128), USC wideout Brendan Rice (No. 129), Rice wideout Luke McCaffrey (No. 130), Tennessee running back Jaylen Wright (No. 131 to the Chiefs, no less), and UCF wideout Javon Baker (No. 132). I was genuinely flummoxed, and in my slight panic, I selected Notre Dame running back Audric Estime at No. 133 overall. I figured that what Estime lacks in overall athleticism and burst is more than made up for in size and violence between the tackles. He can fill the role that Damien Harris was meant to play last season prior to his injury, keeping some of the tough-sledding yards off of budding star running back James Cook — and also off the shoulders of Buffalo’s real short-yardage back, quarterback Josh Allen.

In the fifth round, I rolled the dice on some high-upside athletes who will be part of rotations while also taking a flier on a high-motor guy. At No. 144 overall, I picked a backup cornerback, selecting Jarrian Jones out of Florida State. The 6’ speedster has fantastic athletic traits and some iffy game tape. But with a coaching staff as adept at developing defensive secondary players as Buffalo’s staff is, I feel good that they can unlock Jones’ top-level ability.

At No. 160, I took my second wide receiver, drafting Holy Cross wideout Jalen Coker. His biggest knocks really involve the lack of competition he faced at an FCS school, but he’s a plus-athlete who has time to develop in Buffalo.

At No. 163, I went with another defensive end, taking Clemson’s Xavier Thomas. He’s not the biggest player or the strongest, but he’s a high-motor guy who also shows solid play recognition and football IQ. He’d be a strong developmental rusher in Buffalo’s rotation of edge players.

Finally, I took Notre Dame linebacker Marist Liafau at No. 174 overall. He’s a superb coverage linebacker who might lack some “thump” in run support, but he can help the Bills out on special teams and on passing downs if needed.

With nearly all of Buffalo’s major needs addressed earlier in this draft, I decided to take some BPA fliers in Round 6. At pick No. 200, I bolstered the tight end group with a fantastic athlete in Tip Reiman out of Illinois. At 6’5” and 271 pounds, he’s basically an offensive lineman eligible on every play — and while I like Quintin Morris, I don’t think his role as TE3 should be a guarantee. Reiman offers quality competition at a position that should see more emphasis this season.

At pick No. 204, I added another player I don’t anticipate playing much: Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton III. His size, arm talent, and athleticism make him an intriguing prospect, and if the Bills can develop him behind Josh Allen over the next few years, perhaps someone will take a flier on him via trade in a few years, as well.

Finally, in the seventh round, I addressed the offensive line and took a center at pick No. 248 overall. South Carolina’s Nick Gargiulo is a player I discussed in a previous article, and given his size, athleticism, and versatility, I think he’s a prospect that the Bills would be interested in acquiring either at the end of the draft or as a priority free agent. He has experience playing all five positions up front, which is something that Brandon Beane covets in his reserve linemen.

So, after making a pair of trades to move back and acquire picks, our draft haul would look like this:

• Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina (no. 47 overall via trades with KC and NYG)
• Michael Hall Jr., DT, Ohio State (No. 60 overall)
• Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami (No. 70 via trade with NYG)
• McKinley Jackson, DT, Texas A&M (No. 95 overall via trade with KC)
• Jalyx Hunt, DE, Houston Christian (No. 107 overall via trade with NYG)
• Audric Estime, RB, Notre Dame (No. 133 overall)
• Jarrian Jones, CB, Florida State (No. 144 overall)
• Jalen Coker, WR, Holy Cross (No. 160 overall)
• Xavier Thomas, DE, Clemson (No. 163 overall)
• Marist Liufau, LB, Notre Dame (No. 174 overall via trade with KC)
• Tip Reiman, TE, Illinois (No. 200 overall)
• Joe Milton III, QB, Tennessee (No. 204 overall)
• Nick Gargiulo, C, South Carolina (No. 248 overall)

In this scenario, I took Buffalo’s ten draft choices, turned them into 13 selections, and addressed the team’s major needs. The question is simple, however: Was it good enough? If this is the plan Brandon Beane follows in the draft, will you be satisfied?

If that’s the kind of haul that comes back in the draft, is it worth missing out on some of the higher-rated targets at wideout? Which of the three scenarios do you like most? Let’s talk in the comments.