Can Bucs Reverse Fortunes Against 49ers?

Remarkably, the Bucs are 6-6 and have won three of their last four games. But things get tougher over the next couple of weeks, starting with Sunday’s Week 14 matchup with the 8-4 49ers in San Francisco.

History hasn’t been kind to Tampa Bay in this series. In 24 all-time regular season meetings with the 49ers, the Bucs are just 6-18. Their .250 winning percentage against San Francisco is their worst against any NFC opponent, and they have worse winning percentages against only four AFC teams: New York (.231), Houston (.200), Pittsburgh (.167) and Tennessee (.167).

So, as the Bucs look to get back above .500 for the first time since Week 5, can they reverse their fortunes against the ‘Niners?

It’ll certainly be tough to win out west, something Tampa Bay hasn’t done a lot in its history either. And in games at San Francisco in particular, the team has just a 3-12 record. But the Bucs did prevail in their last trip to Levi’s Stadium, winning 34-17 in 2016.

49ers Represent One Of The Bucs’ Toughest Tests Yet

The historical stuff ultimately won’t play a role on Sunday afternoon. What will play a role, though, is just how good the 49ers are this season. They’re one of the best teams the Bucs have played all year, up there with Kansas City and Baltimore, two teams that beat Tampa Bay.

Kyle Shanahan’s team is 8-4 and — despite losing quarterbacks Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo — still looks like one of the NFC favorites even with 2022 Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy under center. With weapons like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk on offense, the 49ers will challenge the Bucs’ defense.

And where San Francisco really has an edge is on defense. The 49ers have the league’s No. 1 scoring defense, allowing just 15.8 points per game. Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are two of the game’s best at their respective positions, and that unit as a whole is extremely formidable. They’ve held their last five opponents to 17 points or fewer.

Never mind the fact that Tampa Bay’s offense struggles to score points on a weekly basis anyway. In eight games against teams in the bottom half of the NFL for scoring defense, the Bucs have averaged just 16.9 offensive points per game. Now, they face the league’s best.

The Bucs have yet to play a great game in all three phases this season. And in a matchup like this one, it feels like they’ll have to bring their best to even have a fighting chance. It seems unlikely that this team can somehow look like it did 2020 or 2021, but it will need to start playing its best football down the stretch as it looks to lock up the NFC South and get ready for a playoff run.

Tampa Bay Has Reversed Trends In 2022

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

Despite the Bucs’ up-and-down 2022 season and mediocre 6-6 record, they have overcome some bad mojo a few times this season.

It started in Week 2, with the Bucs beating the Saints, 20-10, to snap a seven-game regular season losing streak against their division foe. Their last regular season win over New Orleans was previously in Week 1 of the 2018 season.

Tampa Bay got over another hump in Week 9, snapping a three-game losing streak to the Rams with a dramatic 16-13 win.

And most recently, the Bucs finished off a sweep of the Saints on Monday night, doing so for the first time since 2007. More than that, they also scored a touchdown at home against the Saints for the first time in the Tom Brady era.

So, the Bucs have handled their kryptonites pretty well in 2022. But the Saints and Rams are bad teams this year. This 49ers team is a different animal, and Todd Bowles’ team faces long odds to buck another bad trend on Sunday afternoon.

But stranger things have happened.

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