Chop Robinson Is A Risk-Reward Pass Rusher Bucs May Consider

In the first of this series of articles looking at potential draft fits for the Bucs using age and RAS (Relative Athletic Scores) scores as guardrails, I laid out what tendencies Bucs GM Jason Licht has typically kept to over his 10+ years with the team. In this article I will look at one of the players identified as a potential fit in more depth.

Penn State defensive end Chop Robinson occupies a unique space within the NFL Draft evaluation community as a polarizing player. On the one hand, the traits are something to drool over.

Robinson’s 10-yard split on his 40-yard dash was the fastest ever for an edge player over 250 pounds. While the 40-yard dash is the most popular combine event it has little to do with functional athleticism for edge rushers. If your edge rusher is running 40 yards down field things have gone very wrong – unless it’s happening with the ball after a strip-sack on the way to end zone.

That 10-yard split, combined with his explosive traits and agility markers paint the picture of a player who has the tools to be successful as an NFL defensive end or an outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme like Todd Bowles’ in Tampa Bay.

On the other hand, Robinson lacked the statistical production that one would like to see if to justify using premium draft capital (first-round pick). In three years in college, spanning 30 total games, Robinson has totaled just 20 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks. Some edge rushers get to that number in a single season. Within this very draft class UCLA’s Laiatu Latu produced 21.5 tackles for loss and 13.5 sacks.

How can a player so highly regarded generate so little production? Part of the issue is just a lack of playing time. To reiterate, Robinson has just 30 games under his belt. Only 22 of those came as a starter and he has just 415 pass rush opportunities in the last two seasons playing in the Big 10 where running the ball is the only way to get into heaven.

This makes Robinson still a very raw prospect. Which leads to the next concern.

Chop Robinson’s Athleticism vs. His Lack of Refinement

There is no getting around the fact that Robinson represents a high-ceiling, low-floor prospect. Some may liken him to the Bucs’ 2021 first-round pick, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. But even those comparisons don’t quite hit the mark as JTS was and has been a high-floor player.

His 6-foot-5, 265-pound size has allowed him to function as a strong run defender even if his development as a pass rusher has stagnated. Tryon-Shoyinka’s long and chiseled frame allow him to take on big, physical offensive linemen and still bring down ball-carriers.

Robinson is in the 27th percentile for weight, 22nd percentile for height and 5th percentile for wingspan. He is not likely to be a stout run defender. He doesn’t have the same projection at his 25th percentile outcome. He could flat out bust. But if he hits his 75th-90th percentile outcomes he could legitimately turn into one of the best pass rushers in the NFL.

How High Is Chop Robinson’s Ceiling? How Low Is His Floor?

Penn State EDGE Chop Robinson – Photo by: USA Today

If the Bucs are considering Robinson at pick No. 26 it will be a carefully considered calculus of ceiling vs. floor. Complicating things is the fact that the roster isn’t without holes in other areas. Left guard is still a glaring weakness. Those factors make taking a “project” that high a riskier proposition.

But the traits are still there. The key will be his development. That’s where the age guardrail comes in. Robinson will still be just 21 years old on opening day. With a lack of opportunities in college there is a world of opportunity for him to develop a more refined pass rush arsenal complete with push-pulls, spin moves and dips-and-rips.

Because the explosiveness and arc bend are there and provide a tantalizing base skillset to build off of, will the Bucs look to Robinson? They have repeatedly said they need to improve their four-man pass rush in the upcoming season. And they did nothing to upgrade the talent along the defensive line in free agency.

It seems likely Robinson may be on their radar, as they had a formal visit with him at the NFL Scouting Combine. The boom-bust potential can be maddening. But it may also lead to a T.J. Watt-type steal.