Christian McCaffrey trade does not signal Panthers ‘fire sale’

As soon as the Carolina Panthers fired head coach Matt Rhule five games into the season, speculations about a “fire sale“ almost immediately surfaced.

Then, when the team traded wide receiver Robbie Anderson to the Arizona Cardinals one week later, it seemed like those rumblings were coming alive. All that was left was for the organization to dismantle its young core, headlined by versatile running back Christian McCaffrey.

On Thursday, the Panthers did exactly that. They appeared to kick off their sale by trading McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers for four draft picks—three mid-rounders in 2023 and a fifth-rounder in 2024.

However, this blockbuster trade is not an indicator of a self-induced implosion in Carolina, at all. Here’s why.

The Panthers needed an organizational overhaul if they wanted to compete in the near future, as they’ve lingered in a frustrating cycle of mediocrity since their remarkable 2015 run. The experiment of matching an inexperienced head coach with a carousel of unqualified backup quarterbacks failed miserably—time and time again.

Carolina repeatedly missed the playoffs and inevitably became a chore to watch. Eventually, and most notably over the last two seasons, many fans refused to attend games, emptying Bank of America Stadium of a chunk of its home supporters.

Still, owner David Tepper’s franchise had its bright spots. General manager Scott Fitterer garnered widespread popularity for his “in on every deal” mentality.

Young defensive stars like Derrick Brown, Brian Burns and Jeremy Chinn skyrocketed to standout status. They retained stars such as wideout DJ Moore while bringing in accomplished veterans like right guard Austin Corbett and punter Johnny Hekker.

Every fan base thinks their team is only a few pieces away from being world champions, but Carolina showed enough flashes to prove it really is.

The NFL, however, doesn’t have room for the “almost great” teams. It’s either playoffs or failure, and the Panthers repeatedly fell on the wrong side of that.

It was time to make a decision: shoot for the postseason with the Baker Mayfield-McCaffrey-Moore trio, or set the team up for a successful rebuild.

After years of desperately trying to “retool” the weapons around a subpar quarterback, Carolina finally made the right choice. It’s officially rebuilding time—for the offense, at least.

For a successful rebuild, though, a team needs two things: draft picks and salary cap space. Before moving McCaffrey, the Panthers didn’t have much of either.

With just four 2023 draft selections and a negative tally in cap space, Carolina would had to have moved backwards in the coming years as they let their young stars find more enticing contract offers elsewhere. If the Panthers weren’t going to make a run at something meaningful this season, they had to realize they needed to reevaluate the parts of their roster that were holding them back—starting with the team’s stagnant offense.

And someone in the front office finally realized that.

They hit reset, gathered draft picks and are setting themselves up to rebuild the right way. If done correctly, Carolina can finally end the era of indecisive and ineffective “retooling.” It can end the era of mediocre quarterbacks holding back elite pass catchers. Most importantly, it can end the era of Rhule’s obsessive adherence to “The Brand.”

Once they realized that, it was only a matter of time before they moved on from McCaffrey. The draft pick compensation and cap savings were too enticing to keep him around throughout the rebuild. Trading McCaffrey was the perfect example of a blockbuster move that hurt the team in the short term, but was a necessary evil for the long term.

The one thing Carolina does not need is a reckless fire sale. Successful teams hardly ever trade away all of their young, surefire stars for chances at stars (a.k.a. draft picks), especially when the trades would create significant dead cap expenses. That’s exactly what a Brown, Burns, Chinn or Moore would resemble—moving a proven star in exchange for lottery tickets and money problems.

Since 2018, Moore has become one of the most valuable pieces of the Panthers offense—topping 1,000 receiving yards in each of his last three seasons while hauling in 15 career touchdowns. Impressively, he has succeeded despite the team’s quarterback carousel, building chemistry with whomever is throwing him the ball and almost instantly becoming a target magnet.

Unfortunately, Moore is on track to snap his 1,000-yard streak this year, as the dominant receiver has only amassed 204 receiving yards through the first six games of 2022. While that can almost solely be attributed to Mayfield’s struggles, Moore’s poor production inevitably lowered his trade value.

Shipping him off him now would yield relatively lesser draft compensation given his elite skill, not to mention the millions in dead cap losses the Panthers would be paying for years to come.

Much of the same is true for Brown, Burns and Chinn.

After a slow start to his pro career, Brown has taken off this year as a force in the center of the defensive line. This season, he brought in his first interception, already broke his record for passes defended and is on pace to blow his single-season tackle record out of the water. Given that Brown seems to be getting better each season—and that his dead cap hit next season would exceed $3 million—it would be irresponsible to move him for mid-round draft compensation.

Burns and Chinn have shined since their arrival. Burns has flirted with double-digit sack totals in each of his three seasons—reaching 9.0 sacks in 2020 and 2021. This year, he is on track to break that 10.0-sack barrier, as he already has 4.0 a little over a third of the way through.

Chinn came in second place in NFL AP Defensive Rookie of the Year Voting in 2020 thanks to a season made up of 117 tackles, two touchdowns and an interception. He followed up that performance with 107 tackles and five quarterback hits in 2021 before missing at least four games this season due to a hamstring injury. This is likely the lowest Chinn’s value has been since he entered the league, so the Panthers would be wise to hang on to their star of the secondary through his recovery and beyond.

Players like Brown, Burns, Chinn and Moore are the team’s future, and for now, it seems like the front office knows it. Despite Twitter users’ calls for more trades, let everyone know that the Panthers’ “fire sale” is canceled.

To be honest, it was never scheduled to start anyways.