Colts Regular Season Offensive Rankings

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

I’m not going to go in depth on the week 18 game, but I will post the drive chart, because I think it visually demonstrates the story of the game. After an opening field goal, the Colts punted on their next 4 possessions averaging only 11 yards per drive. After that, however, the offense woke up and entered scoring position on their remaining 5 drives, averaging 58 yards on each possession.

This was such a winnable game, but the team just couldn’t extend their drives enough. Their 70% Drive Success Rate (17th) had them settling for field goals until it was too late. 1.55 Points per drive (20th) simply isn’t going to win many games.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

On the year, the offense ends right in the middle with a 16th ranked 1.87 Points per Drive and a 19th ranked Drive Success Rate.

The 2023 Colts were average at gaining yards (14th yds/ply) and worse than average at converting first downs (22nd 1st/ply). They were particularly bad on 3rd downs with the 6th shortest yards to gain yet only the 26th ranked 3rd down conversion rate.

Their saving grace was a high volume of 1st downs from opponent penalties (1.9 per game 9th) and a decent amount of explosive plays (5.7 per game 13th) allowing drives to get into scoring position without a lot of first downs.

PASS TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

At a team level, the Colts finish the year 19th in passing (EPA/d) with a 23rd ranked Passing Success Rate. This is mirrored in the 19th ranked net yards per dropback, but only the 23rd ranked conversion rate.

Accuracy was just a killer in the passing game. A 27th ranked completion rate is bad enough, but that came on much shorter than average throws (23rd adot). Adjusting for that gives a completion rate that was -3.6% below expected and ranks as 3rd worst accuracy in the league (30th cpoe).

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Last year, I ranked the Colts run game dead last in the league, so a 12th place finish in 2023 is a dramatic turn around. Some of that is Jonathan Taylor’s return to health, but credit also needs to go to improved blocking from the O-line (from 23rd to 11th in ESPN Run Block Win rate).

The Colts had the 7th most Yards per Carry, but a lot of those runs came on first downs when yards are easier to gain. When it came to converting series, the team was just average (16th 1st/c).

Still, they managed the 7th most rushing TDs per game and kept the fumble volume below average (18th Fum Lost).

CONCLUSION

Graphing each team’s run and pass proficiency shows the Colts’ offense right in the middle of the pack. In fact, as the red lines in the chart are the mean pass/run values for the league, no other team looks more average than the Colts.

I would bet that is better than most people at the start of the season would have predicted, so in some way, average is a win.