Haters will say it’s fake

To the reader:

First, I’d like to start by saying this article is presented as a “conspiracy theory” because that’s how this series started. I noticed that general manager Chris Ballard didn’t lie in his press conferences. He usually gave winding vague answers but he never said one thing and then did another. Armed with this observation I set out to use those interviews to read between the lines and provide you with a conspiracy article for the ages. In the beginning that’s what this was: little more than a long conspiracy theory article. But something happened along the way, I started to notice real life patterns. And I now believe that I can make real predictions based off of those patterns, and frankly, anyone paying attention could do the same.

So while my methodology continues to evolve as the patterns unveil themselves some things never change. I’ve spent countless hours over the past few weeks doing research, listening to old pressers, and watching every relevant interview I could get my hands on. Taking notes on the new information we’ve been given, while going back over my notes from years past.

As I’m writing this letter to you this year, like every year, I have no idea what this article is going to say. I don’t have some grand idea I’m writing toward, all I know is that this has become my favorite article to write each and every year. It’s a lot of fun to see what I can gather from the information that has been put out and by the end of the day on Saturday, April 27th, we will all be able to sit back and marvel at how wrong I have most likely been.

So put on your tinfoil hat, pour your favorite drink and settle in to a comfortable chair for these next several thousand words, as I read through the lines, follow the money, listen to my gut and draw conclusions (that may or may not actually be there) all the way to exposing the Colts 2024 draft plans. This is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition. This is the dimension of imagination. Welcome to the Twilight Zone.

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The History of this Series

For the past five years, I have believed that I could piece together the puzzle that was the Indianapolis Colts 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 draft plans. In each of the past five years, I’ve invested a lot of time and effort sifting through the clues to find possible answers to the question: what will the Indianapolis Colts do in the draft?

A question that I probably won’t be able to answer as well as I have for the past two years.

Both 2022 and 2023 were banner years for this series. In 2023 I hit on four picks. Correctly naming Anthony Richardson, Juju Brents, Darius Rush and Daniel Scott. In 2022 I was able to predict four of the first five picks, correctly naming Jelani Woods, Alec Pierce, Bernhard Raimann and Eric Johnson. I also listed UDFA signing Ryan Van Demark. I did name both Marcel Dabo and Dallis Flowers in the article as special teamers the Colts might be interested in- but I won’t give myself too much credit for those two as they failed to make my final list of 14 names, so they don’t really count.

In 2021 I missed every single name, zero correct picks. 2020, I hit on Michael Pittman Jr.. And in 2019 I hit on Rock Ya-Sin and Ben Banogu. So from the start of this series I correctly predicted by year; two, one, zero, four and then four names again.

What does it mean? I’m not sure but it seems like I’ve hit on something. It seems like the Colts under Chris Ballard have a somewhat predictable process for how they identify talent, prioritize need and stack their draft board. They work their process and given enough time and study, every process becomes predictable. So have I cracked the code?

Absolutely not. Last year I was sure Indy would take a linebacker. They lost Bobby Okereke in free agency to the New York Giants and they failed to replace him with a free agent. History told me it was a safe bet that the team would look to the draft to fill that slot, but they didn’t. I’ll go into more detail on why I think that might have happened when I, once again, predict they will draft a linebacker this year, but E.J. Speed, Zaire Franklin and the hopeful return of Shaq Leonard probably played a role.

So while I’ve gotten some things right, I’ve still missed on a ton and I have to try to balance improvement with staying true to what got me to 8 correct predictions in two years.

But no matter what happens I’m never going to let anyone forget what I’ve done these past two years, frankly if you think you’re tired of hearing about it, just know my wife has never watched a Colts game in her life, but knows who Juju Brents is.

A quick aside relating to Juju Brents and why my wife knows his name, I’ve told this story no less than a hundred times in the past year. I moved to Kansas City more than 10 years ago to finish college. Long story short, I finished school and never left the city. Last year KC hosted the draft and I took my daughter to day two after going to the first round and seeing Indy take Anthony Richardson. By the time the Colts were on the clock in the second round, me and my very tired six year old had been there for hours. She was sitting on my shoulders with a belly full of hamburger and Gatorade when Roger Goodell walked to the podium. I had positioned us hundreds of feet back but right in the middle of the stage, surrounded by a thousand of our closest friends. Right before Goodell started to talk I yelled up to my daughter:

“Hey kid, that man is getting ready to say with the 44th pick of the 2023 NFL Draft the Indianapolis Colts select Julius Brents, defensive back, Kansas State”

Daughter: “Okay”

Roger Goodell: “With the 44th pick of the 2023 NFL Draft the Indianapolis Colts select Julius Brents, defensive back, Kansas State”

It was the coolest I’ve ever felt. But also I realized that the man standing to my left was looking at me like I was an alien. I just smiled and nodded. A moment later my daughter and I just turned and walked away.

Sometimes I wonder if he ever thinks about me.

The challenge of 2024 has been that in each of the past two years the biggest needs have been at least partially created via losses in free agency. In 2023 the Colts lost major contributors at corner in Brandon Fayscon and Stephon Gilmore (via trade) and they didn’t fill that gap with anyone in free agency. Predicting an early cornerback selection to fill the void was simple, therefore Juju Brents was an obvious choice. In 2022 the Colts let Chris Reed, Mark Glowinski, Eric Fisher, Sam Tevi and Marcus Davenport all leave via free agency. They replaced them with Shon Coleman, Brandon Kemp and Jordan Murray and even in 2022 it was obvious those were not names they were counting on to play roles for the future of the team. If one of them turned into something, great. But it was obvious they would be looking to the draft to add to the position and it was obvious to me that Bernhard Raimann was someone that might just fit what they would be looking for.

So what has the 2024 free agency class told us? Absolutely nothing. Zero predictive help, at least historically. Chris Ballard went out and re-signed every major and nearly every minor free agent the Colts had save for RB2 Zack Moss and QB2 Gardner Minshew, both of whom left for opportunities to earn starting roles elsewhere. And the Colts aren’t going to be drafting their replacements with early picks. So the biggest challenge of the 2024 draft prediction season is that Ballard eliminated our biggest clues.

But there’s still hope.

So can I do it a third year in a row? Probably not. And we can all laugh when I inevitably fail to get a single name right. But I believe that my process has hit on something more than just luck.

But you don’t have to believe me. Let me show you.

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How do they stack their board and what does “Best Player Available” mean?

Free agency and roster holes have always been very predictive of what positions Chris Ballard will look to draft. If you had created a checklist of the Colts biggest needs entering each draft since 2018, you would magically find that checklist filled in, almost always in order, by the players the Colts drafted.

It’s wild to me when I see people argue that Chris Ballard simply drafts the best player available. I think that term “best player available” means something very different to you, than it does to him. If you ask Chris Ballard if he drafts the “best player available” he’ll give you one of a couple different answers (he literally has). What “best player available” actually means, is complicated.

But the long and short of it is this: They don’t just stack their board vertically. They don’t just number their prospects 1-500 like all of the “draft experts” do. They don’t do it like I do. They grade the players and stack their board across all positions by round, too.

Why would they stack them by round?

Lets say the team has a draftable grade on 25 wide receivers this year (I don’t know the actual realistic number I just pulled that one out of the air). Let’s say they have a first round grade on six of them. Now lets say they have a second round grade on five of them and a third round grade on ten of them. The other four are sprinkled in on day three.

Now lets say the team has a draftable grade on six cornerbacks. Let’s say they don’t have any graded out as first rounders but two are graded as second rounders, three as third rounders and one graded as a fifth rounder.

In this scenario the team has a need at both wide receiver and cornerback. If using a vertical board the six receivers with the first round grade would be higher on the board than any of the cornerbacks. But if the team takes the receiver then the chances of completely missing out on one of the six draftable corners goes up, significantly. Meaning that stacking the board horizontally allows teams to visually manage priority and risk much more effectively.

By organizing the board horizontally by position and round it allows teams to track the depth of the draft as well as the quality of the players that are currently being taken. Here is an example from Blogging the Boys back in 2013:

Back in 2013 this exact scenario played out for the Dallas Cowboys as they only had draftable grades on three centers. At the time the Cowboys took heat for trading back in the first round, passing on players with higher consensus grades to take center Travis Fredrick. It turns out the Cowboys actually did have higher grades on several players who were on the board with their initial pick but they did not want to miss out on one of the only draftable centers available. History looks favorably on this move. Big thanks to Inside The Pylon for this bit of draft history.

The Colts are also compare draftable prospects against players currently on their own team. Why would they stack draftable prospects against guys currently on the roster?

Let’s say it’s the fourth round and the Colts are on the clock. They look up at their board and the highest rated player on their board is a running back. They believe he will be RB2 behind Jonathan Taylor. Their second highest rated player is a tackle prospect. They believe he will be the fourth tackle on the roster behind Raimann, Smith and Freeland. Their third highest rated player is a safety prospect and they believe he will challenge Rodney Thomas for a starting position in training camp and contribute right away on special teams.

So what player should they take?

If they draft pure “BPA” they take the second string running back and hope he picks up 300-400 all-purpose yards. If “best player available” actually means “best player available based on the situation” then you might draft the safety. So “BPA” isn’t always what fans think it is and need is a heavy part of Chris Ballard’s drafting process. Although, Dayo Odeyingbo proves it isn’t absolute. Odeyingbo was likely, truly, the best player available on their board at the time they took him and they took him because they probably believed he was he best player available by a wide margin. He was in a different tier than everyone else.

To recap: need matters, the depth of the draft matters. If the team’s need is great and the depth of the draft is poor, the team will be more likely to fill the need early if the players there are all graded similarly.

I’m not trying to start any arguments, here, it’s just an observable fact of their process as shown over time.

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What Year Is It?

Looking at Chris Ballard’s history as general manager the Colts drafts have had themes, especially in the early rounds.

In 2017 they took defenders with six of their eight picks.

In 2018 with a new head coach they took six players on offense and five on defense.

In 2019 they took seven guys on defense and three on offense.

In 2020 they went with five offensive players and four defenders (three defenders coming in the sixth round).

In 2021 they went with three defenders and four offensive players (three offensive players coming in rounds six and seven).

In 2022 they took four players on offense and four players on defense (two defenders coming in the sixth and seventh round).

In 2023 they took six players on offense and six on defense (three of the first four coming on offense. Only one defender was selected before day three.)

The numbers themselves might not stand out but aside from 2018 and 2023 the Colts, under Chris Ballard, have alternated priority on offense and defense early in each draft. Last year they should have been in line to draft defense early and often. But both times Chris Ballard has gone into a draft with a new head coach his draft strategy has differed. So the question now becomes, will he get back on track like he did in 2019 and keep the pattern going with an offensive draft or because the defense has been so overlooked at the beginning of the draft since 2021, will the team focus on adding talent to that side of the ball?

This question isn’t an easy one to answer. On one hand both Ballard and Shane Steichen have talked about getting more explosive on offense. Not to mention during last season’s contract dispute with Jonathan Taylor and the will-he-won’t-he be traded month that followed. It was reported that both the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins were interested in Taylor and the Colts requested Christian Watson from the Pack, and Jalen Waddle as part of the trade package from the Phins for the star running back. On one hand, they knew that compensation was never going to happen, on the other hand it tells us if they were willing to let Taylor go it would have to be in exchange for a speedy wide receiver.

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Prediction #1

This is a defensive draft.

Forget for a second that you watched the Indianapolis Colts play football in 2023. Pretend you don’t know what they were good at and what they were bad at. Pretend you know nothing.

This is the list of day one and two defenders added to the Colts roster via the draft since 2020 (2020 chosen because no one chosen on day one or two of 2019 is on the team and 2018 was a weird year):

• Julian Blackmon, Safety, Third round
• Kwity Paye, Defensive End, First Round
• Dayo Odeyingbo, Defensive Line, Second Round
• Nick Cross, Safey, Third round
• Juju Brents, Corner, Second Round

Julian Blackmon was re-signed to a one year deal, Paye has been a disappointment thus far, Odeyingbo had a very good year a season ago, Nick Cross runs fast but nobody knows if he’s any good and as much as I like my Juju Brents draft story (and think he’ll be good) nobody should be ready to write his name down in ink next to CB1 on the depth chart.

The bottom line is, in the past four years the Colts have used five premium draft picks on defenders, the best one (Blackmon) played a career high 15 games in 2023 after making 11 starts in 2022 and just 6 in 2021 and the second best player (Odeyingbo) is a good rotational defensive linemen with tremendous upside. Only once in that time have they used a first round pick on a defender and they’re probably not going to pick up his fifth year option.

Chris Ballard has no choice but to add to the defensive talent early in this draft. I just don’t see a way around it.

Just going by the pure dumb numbers, the Colts offense ranked 10th in points scored and 28th in points allowed on defense. No one who watched Gardner Minshew and Anthony Richardson play last season would honestly tell you that they expect the 2024 Colts offense to be worse under Richardson (the first person who says “if he can stay healthy” in the comments gets banned. We know.) So what defender coming off of injured reserve is going to take the defense from the 28th scoring unit to the 15th? What about the 20th? The 25th?

Daniel Scott?

Titus Leo?

Genard Avery?

Stop me if I get to a name that will propel this defense to an acceptable quartile.

What about all of this talk of explosion?

Chris Ballard has mentioned explosive plays multiple times this off season and if you listen closely, this mention was specifically about limiting explosive plays on defense.

So you see, as much as we would all like to sell the farm and trade up for Marvin Harrison Jr., given where the 2024 Indianapolis Colts are at, early on in this draft, this team is going heavy on defense.

Ballard told us in his pre-draft press conference that the first round is going to be heavily offensive. And even though the Colts might just choose to get in on that action, too, it also means that a lot of really solid defensive prospects will still be on the board in the second and third rounds. When I say that this is going to be a “defensive draft” a first round pick on offense doesn’t negate that. Most years one of the first three picks is dedicated to the “other” side. So if the Colts do go offense in round one and I’m right about this being a defensive draft, I expect multiple day two picks to go to defense. The opposite is also true. If the first pick gives Gus Bradley a new toy, one of the two day two picks will give Shane Steichen some flexibility on offense.

And if I’m wrong and this is a draft where the Colts focus on the offensive side of the ball, well, thanks for reading and better luck next year.

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Prediction #2

The Colts will draft a receiver with a premium pick:

Yes this is a defensive draft and yes they need talent on the other side of the ball but listen to coach in this clip:

“There’s gonna be your top two or three guys that everyone looks at and then there’s always gonna be the guy in the second, third, fourth, round…”

Coach is telling us a lot here.

Every year the Colts (and every other team) have a limited number of elite prospects they identify. After those guys come off the board? Well, things get a little murky.

Chris Ballard has talked in the past about where you find value in drafts and how historically second round picks aren’t exactly less valuable than those mid-to-late first rounders he has often had. His selections of Michael Pittman Jr., Jonathan Taylor, Braden Smith, Darius Leonard and Dayo Odeyingbo have surely reinforced his belief in this idea.

So does that mean he’s just going to trade the 15th pick for multiple day two picks? Maybe, but probably not.

Given what Shane is telling us it seems likely the Colts feel there are two to three receivers in this class that are those type of can’t-miss élite players and then, well, there’s a boat load of guys to choose from that they probably have graded similarly.

He also tells us they want to add a receiver:

“We gotta do our due diligence studying these guys… not only the wideouts but every position, and try to keep diggin and find that guy that can help us”

He tried really hard to save it with “not only the wideouts but every position” but he was in too deep by the time he got there. I know it, you know it, he knows it and he realized he had to say it because of the implication of what he was about to say. He was telling us that they have to make sure they choose someone that will fit the defined role they have available. But the implication was, in fact, that they want to choose someone at the position. Last year they struck gold with Josh Downs in the third round and found a guy who fit their man coverage beating slot receiver role, but will they be able to find “that guy that can help” on day two this year? Or will the role they have defined for him necessitate a day one selection? What role are they trying to fill? How many guys are available that fit?

There’s just been so much smoke with the Colts and receivers this off-season it would be pretty shocking to see them avoid it completely. Although, maybe I’m taking the bait, too.

There are a few scenarios that will throw off this entire article and one of them revolves around the receiver position. NFL Draft Analyst Tony Pauline reported that Malik Nabers had off-the-field concerns and was a “high maintenance” prospect. My first instinct when I saw the report was to roll my eyes. It seemed like a bogus report, they happen every year around this time and this felt like another example.

But…

Then it was reported that the Colts were hosting Nabers for a pre-draft visit. But Nabers figures to be off the board well before the Colts pick at 15.

And now it’s been reported by Albert Breer that Nabers has a left shoulder injury:

Both of LSU’s star receivers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers, have issues with their left shoulders. The risk here is considered relatively minimal—in both cases, there’s a chance the player may have to have the shoulder surgically repaired after the 2024 season. Bryan Bresee, the Saints’ first-round pick last year, had a similar situation with his shoulder coming into the draft last year.

So logic tells me one of a couple things is likely true of Malik Nabers:

1. The Indianapolis Colts are prepared to go against everything Chris Ballard has ever stood for to trade up in the first round to select a wide receiver. We’ve never seen how Chris Ballard operates with a franchise quarterback on a rookie deal. Things could get interesting.

or

2. That Tony Pauline report wasn’t quite as bogus as I thought and maybe the the Colts think the off-the-field combined with the shoulder means that there’s a chance he might fall come draft night. Maybe.

or

3. It’s a combination of both things, Nabers falls a little and the Colts find themselves close enough to go get him.

Ultimately, I do not believe the Colts will be moving up in the first round. But it’s possible. If the Colts were to move up to say 9th overall, the trade chart tells us that should cost roughly the 15th overall and the Colts third round pick, in reality it may cost more. So if Indy could find a trade partner in the second round to move back, they could realistically recoup an early day three pick, and possibly move around the board a little more and still finish the draft with 7 selections. Crazier things have happened.

And if the Colts move up or if there is a chance Nabers falls to 15? That clip from Steichen makes it pretty easy to assume Nabers is one of the “top two or three guys” he was talking about and if everyone is comfortable with the reported off the field issues- well, all bets are off and many of the names that make my final list are junk.

And if the Colts get Malik Nabers, I’d be okay with my streak of hitting names in this article coming to an end.

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Prediction #3

The Colts will draft offensive line on day three

Chris Ballard drafting OL is a very safe bet.

Chris Ballard wants to win up front.

He’s drafted at least one offensive lineman every year he’s been in Indianapolis. So this isn’t as much about if he’s going to draft help on his front five but when will he do it?

This time last year I held the fairly unpopular belief that the Colts offensive line, as it was, was fine. It needed depth but if you actually watched the line over the back half of the 2022 season, it improved greatly with Bernhard Raimann and Will Fries coming into their own. Chris Ballard told us all as much at his end of season press conference when he said the offensive line wasn’t the reason the team was losing games down the stretch. So I was pretty sure a mid-to-late day three pick was in the works for the position.

Instead Tricky-Chris surprised me and took Blake Freeland with the 106th overall pick in the fourth round. And it turns out it was good that he did as Freeland ended up starting 9 games as a rookie., filling in for injuries at both tackle spots. In those 9 starts, Freeland struggled but my feeling was that despite his struggles he was resilient. He kept getting his butt kicked but he never got frustrated and let his mistakes compound. Instead he got back up, played the next down and got beat clean. And yeah, that’s not great, but it’s actually a solid foundation for a day three swing tackle with elite athleticism to have. Ballard’s comments on Freeland after the season mirror that impression and the Colts likely believe they’re set at swing tackle.

Beyond the tackle position both Ryan Kelly and Will Fries are entering contract years. If Kelly plays as well as he did a year ago and he wants to continue playing and continue playing for Indianapolis, I’m sure he will receive an extension. Will Fries is a fantastic candidate to receive the type of contract that Ballard gave to Mark Glowinski during his time in Indianapolis, so I don’t really see the team moving on from either of them. However. Chris Ballard takes offensive line in every draft and he hasn’t taken an interior specific offensive linemen since Danny Pinter in 2020. Fries was taken in ‘21 and had some position flexibility. If you want to count him as an interior guy I guess that’s fine, as he did end up at guard. Either way, Ballard has spent picks in ‘22 and ‘23 on tackles in Bernhard Raimann, Blake Freeland and seventh rounder Jake Witt and he has two potential holes in his offensive line with multiple starters in contract years.

Ask Chris Ballard about giving his QB weapons and he’s going to talk about protecting him:

He’s going to draft an offensive lineman on day three, day two wouldn’t completely shock me but I think he holds off just to add more help with all of the ways he wants to impact explosivity. We’ll start our search for OL help with someone with a ridiculously high relative athletic score and a lot of starts in college.

Spoiler alert: there are a lot of names to choose from

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Prediction #4

The Colts would really like to draft a linebacker

Remember when I droned on and on and on earlier in the article about how Chris Ballard drafts for need as much as he does “best player available”?

I mean it’s way more nuanced than that, there’s a lot that goes into it, the depth of the draft, the grading of the individual players in question… forget it.

Well here we are. Another need.

But is it? I mean do the Colts need a linebacker? Let’s take a look.

Here’s a list of the linebackers the Colts have drafted since Chris Ballard took over in 2017:

2017- Anthony Walker- 5th round

2018- Darius Leonard- 2nd round, Matthew Adams- 7th round, Zaire Franklin- 7th round

2019- Bobby Okereke- 3rd round, EJ Speed- 5th round

2020- Jordan Glasgow- 6th round

2021- N/A

2022- N/A

2023- N/A

Chris Ballard and his staff have done a fantastic job finding linebackers all over the draft in his time as general manager. 2021, 2022 and 2023 were the payoff of the effort of those first four years. By 2021 the Colts had one of the best linebacker duo’s in the NFL with Leonard and Okereke. Franklin had grown into a good player and started 11 games and EJ Speed was showing promise, flying around out there, as well.

It was the same story in 2022, except Leonard got hurt. 2023 comes around and Okereke leaves for the New York Giants, but that’s okay because Leonard is coming back and the team still has Franklin and Speed. It was an embarrassment of riches at the position. Except now, through the benefit of hindsight, we know Shaq Leonard doesn’t make it back. At least not the way anyone hoped he would.

I expected that the team would draft someone a season ago to backfill the loss of Okereke and hedge their Leonard bet. For one reason or another, they didn’t. So now the team has Zaire Franklin, EJ Speed and Segun Olubi. After Olubi it’s a toss up between Grant Steward, Cameron McGrone and Liam Anderson (and honestly I don’t know if any of them are even currently under contract with the team).

Olubi played pretty well when he got the opportunity but both he and EJ Speed are in contract years. Speed will be 29 by the time the 2024 season kicks off. I’m not saying the team won’t extend either player, but I am saying that this is as thin as the linebacker position has been in Indianapolis since Chris Ballard took over in 2017 and the long-term outlook of the position isn’t exactly filled with a ton of promise.

We’ll have to figure out what area of the draft they’re going to do it, but this is the year the Colts add help at linebacker.

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Prediction #5

The Colts will draft a defensive lineman

Death. Taxes. Chris Ballard and drafting players in the trenches.

Just book it.

Every single year he’s done it and I don’t see any way he doesn’t do it again. The question, as always, is when does he do it? And is he going to add on the interior or on the edge?

In 2023 the defensive line picks were DT Adetomiwa Adebawore in the fourth and DE Titus Leo in the sixth. Ade Ade showed some flashes in limited playing time and looked like a young, athletic, developmental DT prospect you hope you’re getting when you use a fourth round pick on a guy. Leo was put on IR last August.

In 2022 the DL picks were DT Eric Johnson in the fifth round and Curtis Brooks in the sixth. Johnson has come along a little and by my estimation is developing as you would hope an athletic 5th round DT prospect would. He hasn’t shown that he can be anything special but he’s a young player with upside competing for playing time in a crowded room. Brooks spent last season on the Washington Commanders injured reserve.

In 2021 the DL picks were Kwity Paye in the first and Dayo Odeyingbo in the second. Paye hasn’t lived up to expectations and Odeyingbo looks like he’s on the verge of breaking out. Both are entering contract years.

The team has extended DT’s DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart and signed free agent DT Raekwon Davis to provide depth on the inside.

So where does all of that leave the team? Frankly, in a pretty good position but we have seven years of drafts telling us that Chris Ballard is going to take someone on the defensive line. When you factor in the extensions given to Stewart and Buckner and the addition of Davis via free agency, along with the interior draftees in 2022 and 2023, and given Kwity Paye’s performance and contract status and it just feels like Ballard will be looking more so at defensive ends in 2024.

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Prediction #6

The Colts will trade back

A season ago Ballard traded down from 38 to 44 overall and added an extra fourth round pick that turned into Adebawore. He also traded back from 141 to 158 and added an extra sixth round pick.

In 2022 Chris Ballard traded back… you know if I did this for every draft this article would turn into War and Peace. The fact that you’re here reading it is a pretty good indication that you understand how much Chris Ballard loves to trade back and add more draft picks.

Plus he told us all he was going to do it just last week

Predicting which pick gets traded is almost impossible. I will say that most people believe the strength of this class is within the first 100 picks, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Ballard move down from 15 to add a top 100 selection. But even last year he moved down six picks in the second round and added a pick just outside of the top 100 so, again predicting what pick Ballard is going to move off of is nearly impossible. Just know, if anyone will give you odds on Ballard trading back at some point in the draft, take them.

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Mostly Unsubstantiated Theory

Chris Ballard is going to add a returner

During his end-of-season press conference Ballard talked about adding players specifically for special teams. He noted how the rules had more or less eliminated kickoffs. That was before the NFL changed the rules. With the new kick off rule for 2024 Chris Ballard is going to be looking for a way to maximize his special teams unit and I believe he will add someone to take advantage of the new rule.

It is possible one of Ballard’s early picks (think corner or receiver) could provide value at both his drafted position and as a returner. While I absolutely think that would be a positive, especially early in their career while they get up to speed on offense or defense, the team might not want someone they’re hoping will play a big role for them (40+ snaps a game) being the guy returning kicks, too. So this will be something to watch.

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Other Things We Know:

• Chris Ballard greatly values college all-star games, like the Senior Bowl.
• The Colts’ version of “Best Player Available” factors in team need:

• According to Ballard character concerns aren’t always a deal-breaker. But we haven’t seen many guys with concerns brought in since he’s been in Indy.
• Ballard and his staff obviously value length, placing an emphasis on long-armed defenders.
• Most Colts draft picks since 2020 have had high Relative Athletic Scores. The Colts probably don’t use RAS in their evaluation but it’s impossible to overlook the fact that Colts draft picks (with a few exceptions) have had a high RAS.
• They value high football character. Team captains are held in high regard.
• The Colts have “reached” on players like Darius Leonard and Julian Blackmon on day two of the draft. They don’t care when you think a player should be drafted and will reach to fill a hole if the draft is shallow at the position.
• Ballard wants to take players with high-end traits:

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Casting a Wide Net

I am going to give you a position by position breakdown listing players at each position that, I believe, fit what the Colts will be looking for come draft day, before giving you my definitive list. I’m giving you both lists because frankly, it’s really hard to take 400+ players and whittle them down to the few most likely to fit what the Colts want and then predict who might, possibly, be available when the Colts make their selections. So I’m giving both lists, not as a way to increase my own ability to hit on a name, but it allows for additional analysis of each position that we already know the Colts want to add.

I won’t give myself credit for hitting on the players that don’t make THE List because I am giving you A LOT of names. That said, I’m not just throwing these names out, I have reason to believe each name on this mostly untrimmed list is there for a good reason.

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Pass Catcher

Chris Ballard on getting more explosive:

During his end-of-season press conference, Chris Ballard told us that they believe the draft will give them a chance to add guys that can make them more explosive. More skilled playmakers means more explosive plays, that’s no surprise. So while it’s a good thing they believe they’ll have a chance to add to the position, saying there will be guys available doesn’t really help us narrow down the field.

But did you catch that last line? The one where he answers Stephen Holders question on how Anthony Richardson makes the offense more explosive.

It’s the one where he tells us what kind of pass catcher he wants to draft.

“…I think his ability to push the ball down the field and create allows for those explosiveness plays to happen.”

See, “explosive plays” are defined in different ways. Explosive runs are generally any run over 10 yards and explosive passes, well that depends a little more on who you ask, but for this article we’ll call it passes over 15 yards. This isn’t the time to explain to you why Chris Ballard and the Colts are so focused on creating explosive plays but if you like analytics, this is probably a good sign. This article can probably help.

But even still, not all explosive runs or passes are created the same way, right? In a traditional West Coast Offense you’re going to mostly rely on yards after the catch to create most explosive passes, it’s just how that system works. It’s how a lot of Michael Pittman Jr.’s explosive plays are created, you get him the ball, he runs through an arm tackle and punishes a safety while falling forward. Boom. 15 yard gain.

But Chris Ballard was talking about how the Colts are planning on using Anthony Richardson to create explosive plays in 2024 and he specifically said that his ability to push the ball down the field will allow him to create those types of plays.

And by itself, yeah, obviously. Richardson has a massive arm. He can really push it down the field, what’s the big deal with that statement?

The big deal is that they feel that there are guys in this draft that will make them more explosive and they’ll get more explosive because the quarterback is going to be throwing the ball deep. He just told us (seemingly accidentally) they’re not looking for chain movers. They’re looking for a deep threat.

They want that SPEED.

So, who fits in the 2024 NFL Draft? The good news is that we have a lot of names to choose from: Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, Roman Wilson, Xavier Legette, Troy Franklin and Devontez Walker are all fast. But who makes the most sense in Indy?

Let’s eliminate a couple names.

• Malik Nabers should not be on the board when the Colts pick at 15. If he is, he’s probably your pick. If he’s available at 15 and somehow he’s not the pick, those rumored character concerns are really, really bad. New information has come to light and Nabers isn’t quite as eliminated as I thought he would be. I still don’t really believe he will be there at 15, but a few days ago I was completely convinced he was a top 10 pick. Now, I’m only about 90% sure. In 2021 Kwity Paye didn’t make THE List because I didn’t think he would be on the board. Maybe I learned my lesson.
• Ad Mitchell just doesn’t fit. This isn’t my opinion of him as a player, I’m telling you this as an evaluation of what Chris Ballard has done in the past. Everything I’m about to say is why I’m not including him on the list. If the Colts take him, I’ll be shocked. Mitchell transferred to Texas from Georgia, they usually like it when guys take a step up in competition. Mitchell had family circumstances so maybe that wouldn’t be an issue, if that were the only thing. Mitchell, was also WR2 on his college team. He couldn’t beat out Xavier Worthy for targets. I understand that’s not how scouting works, but maybe the folks at Texas know something and there was a reason Mitchell was WR2. Are we going to expect him to be the WR1 of an NFL team when he couldn’t beat out 165 pound Xavier Worthy against worse competition? Effort. He admitted publicly that he took plays off. Do I need to tell you how Chris Ballard will view that? He was also lazy when blocking for his teammates. Again, Mitchell isn’t a Chris Ballard Colt. But man, if that kid puts it all together at the next level… he’s going to be special, just not in Indy.

It feels like Ballard was talking specifically about AD Mitchell when he gave this answer:

Likely Day One Options

Brian Thomas Jr. LSU- 9.84 RAS – Thomas Jr. is everything the Colts seem to be looking for at the position. He’s 6’3” nearly 210 pounds with 32 3/4” arms and he runs a 4.33 second 40 yard dash. He caught 17 touchdowns in 2023, one out of every four of his receptions went for six points. He is a fantastic prospect that no one would bat an eye at if the Colts took with the 15th overall pick.

Xavier Worthy Texas- 9.40 RAS – We all know by now Worthy is the fastest man in the history of the NFL Combine. But you also know that on field “play speed” and timed speed at the combine are often very different things. Except that’s not really the case with Worthy. Before the Combine Rams General Manager Les Snead told the NFL Network broadcast crew that Worthy was the fastest player he had ever evaluated, then Worthy went out and backed it up. The knocks on Worthy are his size and size related limitations. He’s under 6’ tall and he weighed in at just 165 pounds. There are also concerns that his 40 time will push him up the board and will cause him to be over drafted. I’m not here to tell you why any of those concerns aren’t valid, I’m here to tell you why I think Chris Ballard might take Worthy in the first and the reason is actually pretty simple. Ballard has been building his roster with athletic freaks and it doesn’t get much freakier than the fastest player anyone has ever seen. His production and tape are pretty good, too. From the moment Worthy stepped on campus at Texas, at 18 years old, he was the guy at wide receiver. He was an 18 year old wideout that was the number one receiving option on a premier, power five team. It’s not as if the only thing propping him up is 4.21. So don’t be surprised if Worthy is the guy.

Likely Day Two Options

Xavier Legette South Carolina – 9.9 RAS – Xavier Legette is such an interesting prospect. 6’1” 221 and runs a 4.39. He has drawn comparisons to players like A.J. Brown. Legette has the straight line speed to be the type of deep threat the Colts are looking for but he might not be the pure burner they’re after. With that said, on day two he could fill that role and provide upside in a multitude of other ways. The biggest downside to Legette is that he’s a one year wonder and didn’t produce until he was a fifth year senior. And at 23 years old, you should be better than most of the 18, 19 and 20 year old’s you’re playing against. Legette might be a loose fit for Indy, but personally I like him a lot.

Roman Wilson Michigan – 8.59 RAS – Wilson is another burner in the 2024 class. He ran slower than Worthy but is 20 pounds heavier and you might be able to select him two rounds later than the Texas product (maybe). Wilson is a good route runner with good hands. His biggest issues are related to his small stature. If the Colts want long speed with instant acceleration on day two Wilson is an option, though most view him as being primarily a slot receiver.

Troy Franklin Oregon – 9.02 RAS – Another burner who struggles getting off press coverage. One thing Franklin has going for him that guys like Wilson and Worthy don’t is that he is 6’2”. Now, he’s still rail thin so it’s not like he’s going to be consistently beating physical corners for 50/50 balls, but that’s not why you’re drafting any of these guys. Well, maybe Legette. But Franklin is yet another option that might fit what Indy is looking for.

Devontez Walker North Carolina – 9.76 RAS – Walker might be more of a day three guy but it felt silly giving him his own section (and he could sneak into the back end of day two anyway). Walker is that burner the Colts are looking for but he lacks nearly all refinement. He transferred from Kent State (Chris Ballard loves a transfer up in competition) but the NCAA held up his ability to play due to technicality. There are a lot of unanswered questions with Walker but the physical tools are there and the upside is huge. He has drawn comparisons to Alec Pierce, so make of that what you will.

Honorable Mention:

Ladd McConkey Georgia – 9.34 RAS – McConkey isn’t a burner. But he did run a 4.39 40 and he does play with enough speed to stretch the field. I don’t believe for a second the Colts go this route but personally I like him more than Troy Franklin. Though that has more to do with me just not liking Franklin that much.

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Cornerback

Projecting the Cornerback position for the Colts is a little easier than it was with the wideouts. Maybe more than any other position it feels like Ballard is willing to give his offensive play caller the type of receiver he needs to succeed rather than sticking with one strict(er) archetype. Last season, no one could have predicted Josh Downs would be a Colt. Meanwhile, I (and many others), predicted that guys like Juju Brents and Darius Rush were strong fits in Indy.

So the cornerback archetype is pretty well defined for the Colts and we sort of all know what that looks like. The hard part isn’t knowing which corners the Colts are going to like in this draft, the hard part is knowing which corners are going to be available when they plan to draft them. And that’s sort of the crux of this years article. It’s why I talked so much earlier about how they stack their board and about how they weigh the depth of the draft against their perceived need and against their perception of the quality of the players who are on the board when they’re on the clock.

I went into that detail because for the first time, maybe ever, Chris Ballard did a really good job of going into a draft without a singular massive need. Now, I think cornerback is their biggest need, but with the way the draft is lining up they simply don’t have to take one in the first. They should still be able to get someone who can play good football for them in Gus Bradley’s system on day two, if that’s what they want. Of course Ballard talked about limiting explosive plays on defense, too. So it’s possible they want to throw the best Corner in the draft on the roster and not worry about the CB1 position for the next five to seven years. Or maybe they don’t think that guy is in this draft. Or maybe they don’t think the guy who can do that in their defense is in this draft.

Either way, lets take a look at who fits with the Indianapolis Colts in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Likely Day One Options

Quinyon Mitchell Toledo – 9.79 RAS – I’m going to talk about Mitchell because everyone else is but I don’t know how I feel about his fit with the Ballard-Colts. First, Mitchell is the consensus top one or two corner in this class. His tape was good and he looked like the best DB at the Senior Bowl- all positives! His RAS of 9.79 is insanely high. He ran a 4.33 second 40. So what’s the issue? I’m not telling you he isn’t worth the 15th overall pick. I’m not telling you I don’t like him as a prospect. I’m about to tell you the problems I see with him to the Chris Ballard-Colts. Quinyon Mitchell is 6’0”, has 31” arms and a 75 3/4” wingspan. Those numbers are perfectly average for NFL cornerbacks. Since 2017 Ballard has drafted seven CB’s. Twice he has selected CB’s with sub 32” arms. 2017 fifth rounder Nate Hariston, 31” and 2023 seventh rounder Jaylon Jones 30 3/4”. Jones’ wingspan was slightly above average at 76 3/4”. Ballard has taken three CB’s with premium picks they have an average arm length of 32 3/4” and an average wingspan of 79”. So am I telling you that Quinyon Mitchell is off the Colts board because he has NFL average length arms for the position? No. I’m not telling you that. I am telling you that if Mitchell’s arms were an inch longer he would fit the Colts’ archetype, pretty well, even if you think that’s silly. Ultimately the Colts might watch his film and determine that they’re willing to break their mold at the position for him, and that would make a lot of sense. Mitchell is really good. But I’m here, telling you right now, that even if he’s on the board at 15 it isn’t a sure thing the Colts take him.

Cooper DeJean Iowa – 9.89 RAS – I know what you’re thinking. What makes DeJean’s 31 1/8” arms and 75” wingspan better than Mitchell’s? And that’s the thing: absolutely nothing. They both fall just outside of the Colts archetype for the position but these two are the only first round CB’s who are close and who fit athletically. If Juju Brents were in this draft the Colts might have traded back and taken him in the first. But he’s not in this draft. One thing I do think DeJean has over Mitchell is his proven ability as a kick returner. DeJean returned multiple kicks for scores at Iowa and I do believe that is something Ballard would have to consider. The only other thing that DeJean has for him over Mitchell is his level of competition, which I don’t see as being a huge deal. Mitchell dominated his level of competition and stood out at the Senior Bowl. That said it may be something the Colts weigh in their decision. My gut tells me if DeJean is somehow the guy in the first round, the Colts aren’t taking him at 15.

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I interrupt this broadcast because this section on Cornerbacks was finished on Monday, April 15th. On Friday, April 19th Chris Ballard held his pre-draft press conference and had this to say about the position:

I won’t take any victory laps until the first round is actually over but it seems like the guy in charge is telling us he likes the corners on the roster and they’ll look to add competition. Darrell Baker Jr. did improve over the back half of the season in 2023 and while I’m not sure I completely agree with the premise, I have to admit he might be right. I wrote about the criticism of the 2022 offensive line and their growth in this article (a week before this press conference). I don’t watch the corners as closely as I do the offensive line. It’s possible I missed some of what Ballard is talking about. Either way, I haven’t changed how I felt about this corner class. I’m not changing a thing other than to add this blurb in the wake of the pre-draft presser. I still feel like the guys at the top of the class are less than perfect fits and you can argue if it’s good to move a Quinyon Mitchell down your draft board because his arms are an inch too short. But they have positional thresholds for a reason. If Mitchell, or any other first round corner, were worth going against their well established, well defined, thresholds then they probably wouldn’t be available at 15 overall. I think that, they think, that guy isn’t in this class.

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Likely Day Two Options

Cam Hart Notre Dame – 9.0 RAS – Day two is where it starts to get good for the Colts CB archetype. Hart isn’t a perfect fit when it comes to his tested athleticism. That said his broad and vertical jumps were insane. His 40 time was actually .03 seconds faster than Juju Brents but his 10 and 20 yard splits were slightly worse. With that said coming in at 6’3” with 33” arms and a nearly 79” wingspan and Cam Hart is pretty close to what the Colts have shown us what they want on defense. The biggest concern with Hart are his surgically repaired shoulders.

Max Melton Rutgers – 9.09 RAS – Melton is a different type of corner than what we’ve seen the Colts try to bring in recently. At 5’11” Melton would have been the shortest multiple game starter at outside corner on the 2023 Indianapolis Colts (no one else was under 6’1”) but Melton’s 32” arms coupled with his 4.39 second 40 yard dash and elite explosion scores keep him firmly in the mix as someone the Colts could target on day two. His average agility grade is concerning, especially given his smaller size. Ultimately that may not be a huge concern given what Gus Bradley will ask of him. What makes Melton’s 5’11” better than Quinyon Mitchell’s 6’0”? Nothing. But Melton’s longer arms and 76 5/8” wingspan, coupled with the fact that Melton could be had on day two and he starts to get interesting. Though he’s still not a perfect fit.

Likely Day Three Options

Storm Duck Louisville – 9.56 RAS – Ol’ Duck has a fantastic name. But he also has a fantastic athletic profile to go along with it. Duck is a late day three or PFA pick up sort of guy so the fact that he’s 6’0” isn’t really on my radar. His 32” arms are a nice bonus.

Decamerion Richardson Mississippi State – 8.61 RAS – Richardson is 6’2” with 32 3/8” arms and he ran a 4.34 second 40 yard dash. The only reason his RAS isn’t above a 9.0 is because he weighed in at 188 pounds and only put up 8 reps of 225 on the bench press. Last season Darrell Baker Jr. played at 190 pounds for the Colts and while I know that might not be the comparison you want to see, it does give us some precedent of the Colts liking a guy with similar measurements. Also, when you’re taking a 6’2” corner who ran a 4.34 40 on the third day of the draft, you’re going to have to deal with some downsides. As it stands Richardson checks off several boxes of unteachable skills the Colts obviously covet at the position.

Honorable Mention:

Terrion Arnold Alabama – 9.27 RAS – Arnold measured in a hair under 6’. His arms are under 32” and he ran a 4.5 second 40 yard dash. Again, none of these things mean he’s going to be bad. None of these things mean he won’t be the best CB or even defender in this class. But all of these things fall outside of what I expect the Colts to target at the position.

Miles Battle Utah 9.50 RAS – Battle has the physical tools the Colts look for at the position. All of them, in fact. But Battle transferred from Ole Miss to Utah, played for one season and then declared for the draft. Don’t think he’s a Colt.

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Linebacker

The linebacker position is a little tougher for me to predict. The Ballard Colts started to lean heavily into athletic-freakdom sometime around 2020… right around the time the Colts stopped drafting linebackers. So when you look at the Colts draft history and you see that Zaire Franklin had a 9.64 RAS score and EJ Speed’s was 9.21, you’re probably thinking, what’s the big deal? Find the mega-RAS guys. And yeah, you might be on to something but then you look at Bobby Okereke’s 8.4 RAS and Shaq Leonard’s 4.9 RAS (he was hurt while working out but I wouldn’t have known that looking at his testing numbers). Matthew Adams 7.19 RAS and Anthony Walker finishes things out with a 6.74 RAS.

So when you lay it all out, there’s no surefire way to say what’s what and who’s, who. Now, I do think it’s fair to say that given the Colts move toward exclusively drafting freak-show level athletes, to a fault, that if there are elite level athletes available at the position they should be considered. There are other considerations as well. Speed, Leonard and Okereke all sport 33”+ arms. Ballard obviously values length on defense but it isn’t a total deal breaker at linebacker. Franklin’s are just a touch under 32” while Adams’ 31” and Walker’s 30” round out the group. I don’t believe that Ballard was using the testing data nearly as much back in 2017 and 2018 so looking back on it, it’s probably not lost on him that his most successful day three pick was a guy with crazy athleticism and shorter than ideal arms.

It may not be lost on the Indy brass that their current starting linebackers were both day three guys with ridiculous athleticism who earned their stripes on special teams. Just looking at the numbers, the post 2017 guys, all have broad jumps of at least 1000. Leonard’s 4.7 was the slowest 40 among them and they knew he ran it hurt. Save for Leonard and Adams the rest had very good 10 and 20 yard splits.

So what are we looking for? I think it depends. If we believe the Colts are taking a linebacker with a premium pick, I think they’re going to be looking for someone to come in and start or otherwise play a lot of snaps right away. They want someone with translatable skills and adequate development at the position. If we believe the Colts are taking a linebacker with a day three pick, then I believe they’re more willing to draft someone with high level physical traits that fit their benchmarks but may not be ready on day one. They have had a lot of success drafting and developing at the position, bringing guys along via special teams and that might be what they prefer to do once again.

The Names to Know

Edgerrin Cooper Texas A&M- 9.13 RAS – If you haven’t watched highlights of Edgerrin Cooper yet, don’t. Because if you do watch them and the Colts don’t draft him, you’ll be heartbroken. Cooper’s broad jump was just a hair shorter than most other Ballard-era Colts linebackers, but I think he makes up for it with his 4.51 second 40 and his fast 10 and 20 yard splits. He’s also 6’2” with 34” arms (he’s perfect) Cooper flies around the field and plays with his hair on fire. I could write a lot about this guy, but I’ll stop now. Edgerrin Cooper is my 2024 draft crush and I’m the one who will be heartbroken if the Colts don’t draft this kid.

Trevin Wallace Kentucky – 9.34 RAS – Wallace is 6’1” 237 pounds with 32 5/8” arms. He ran a blazing 4.51 second 40 yard dash and had a great 20 yard split time, too. Wallace declared for the draft after his junior season and still has some developing to do as a player. That said, athletically there aren’t many guys like him and he might be exactly what the Colts are looking for, if they’re looking for someone to stash on special teams while he grows into his role as an NFL linebacker.

Jordan Magee Temple 9.6 RAS – Jordan Magee was a team captain and voted by his teammates to have a single digit number (a Temple tradition given to those who are said to lead by example both on and off the field) two years in a row. He played special teams for his first three seasons at Temple. And he has 32” arms. Jordan Magee isn’t the perfect Chris Ballard-Colts linebacker prospect, but he’s close.

Edefuan Ulofoshio Washington 9.67 RAS – This former walk-on probably wouldn’t be in consideration for the Colts if not for the two seasons he missed major parts of due to injury. While that is a concern, Ulofoshio was super productive, a team captain, a special teams contributor and has 32” arms. I think Magee is a little bit better of a fit overall, but I think the Colts would be happy to have either guy in the building.

Joe Andreessen Buffalo – 9.36 RAS – Joe Andreessen’s arms are too short but he’s here because so are Zaire Franklin’s. And their workout numbers are pretty similar, though Zaire’s 9.64 RAS is a bit higher. Andreessen’s background being an FCS All-American at Bryant before transferring to Buffalo and leading the team in tackles makes for a pretty solid resume. He does have some limited special teams experience in the past as well. I don’t think Andreessen is the most likely linebacker to be chosen by the Colts in this class, but if the next two names tell you anything, this isn’t a deep class so it’s possible.

Honorable Mention:

Bo Richter from Air Force, got some consideration with his 9.92 RAS but after finding some Air Force tape, I don’t believe Richter is an off-ball linebacker in the NFL and I’m not sure the Colts are going to draft a 6’ 240 pound edge defender with 30 5/8 arms. They might project him to off-ball and I could be wrong but I didn’t see it (his lower half is stiff).

Swazee Bozeman from Southern Mississippi, is an insane athlete with his 9.69 RAS. Unfortunately for the former JUCO transfer he has only played in 24 of his past 47 contests due to injury. He also graduated high school in 2016, which is a very long time ago for an NFL rookie.

Final thoughts on the position:

After Chris Ballard’s pre-draft press conference I went back in to this section and added both Edgerrin Cooper and Trevin Wallace. The reason? After what Ballard said about the cornerback position I think there’s a very real chance the Colts take a linebacker before they take a corner. Now, that might not happen, but if you would have asked me 24 hours before that press conference if that was possible, I would have told you no. Previously I thought both Wallace and Cooper would be off the board before Indy looked to add to the position. I don’t know that believe that anymore.

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Defensive Line

We have established that the Colts take defensive line help every year. We have also established that this off-season the team has invested heavily in the interior of the line and that the past couple drafts have done so as well. So it seems pretty obvious they’ll be looking to the end spots in this years draft.

The hard part of finding an EDGE prospect for the Colts is knowing when they’ll look to do it. The first round has three guys in Jared Verse, Laiatu Latu and Dallas Turner. In my opinion I believe Turner fits the Ballard-Colts the most and then Verse and Latu are a toss up with the advantage likely going to Verse (even though I like Latu more than the other two, overall). That said after Turner I don’t think anyone fits closely enough or is as much of a slam-dunk prospect as it would take to get them to take a first round defensive end and Turner is likely to be taken in the top 10.

So that leaves us with everyone else. It isn’t a particularly deep class but there are some interesting names to keep an eye on that might just fit with what the Colts typically like at the position.

The Names to Know

Adisa Isaac Penn State – 8.99 RAS – Isaac boasts very good athleticism in a slightly undersized package. The only reason his RAS isn’t higher is because he weighed in at 247 pounds and only put up 20 reps of 225 on the bench press at the combine. Throw five pounds on him and he’s a 9.13 RAS scorer. Perhaps most important are his 34” arms which, once again, Ballard will like. He tore his Achilles in 2021 and has improved in each season since his return to action, the team might view his return from this as a positive in more than one way. He is a relentless rusher (a trait Ballard has said he covets in the past) and was a team captain at Penn State. Isaac will be sought after on day two and the Colts just might be the team to turn in his draft card.

Jalyx Hunt Houston Christian – 9.22 RAS – Hunt is 6’4” 252 pounds with 34 3/8” arms and his athletic testing was very good. Hunt transferred from Cornell in 2022. Hunt also made the transition from playing safety to defensive end. Given the Ivy League background, Hunt is likely a smart guy with crazy physical tools and tremendous upside given his newness to the position. Hunt feels like someone that one day everyone will be asking how he got drafted so late. For now his tools and the upside they provide make him an interesting option for Indy.

Myles Cole Texas Tech – 8.53 RAS – Chris Ballard likes this prospect. He’s 6’6” 278 pounds, which is good. He’s not far away from being that ‘tweener DT/DE size that Ballard loves. Dayo Odeyingbo was 6’5” 285, but Dayo has 35 1/4” arms… oh yeah, Cole has 37” arms and an 87” wingspan. And when you run his numbers as a defensive tackle his RAS comes out to 9.57. Another thing he seemingly has going for him is that he transferred from Louisiana-Monroe to Texas Tech and did so successfully. At this point Cole is a developmental project but he has physical tools that no one else in this class has and that alone will have Chris Ballard’s attention.

Cedric Johnson Ole Miss – 9.28 RAS – Johnson is another long, athletic prospect that the Chris Ballard-Colts might be interested in drafting and developing. At 6’3” 260 pounds he has an NFL ready build on day one and his 33 1/2” arms should help him keep offensive tackles from having huge reach advantages over him. Johnson is another guy that the Colts might be very excited to watch develop under the tutelage of new defensive line coach Charlie Partridge.

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Offensive Line

The Colts offensive line is good and they’re unlikely to invest early draft capital in the unit. That is, unless they know something about an upcoming surprise retirement or some other event that no one outside of the organization could know about. So a first round pick on an offensive linemen would be surprising now and probably surprising in other ways later this year as training camp draws closer.

But I can’t plan for every variable, this article is long enough just accounting for the variables we can sort of expect. And with that we’ll take a look at some of the guys who might be available a little later in this draft. The biggest problem with this years interior offensive line class is that I can’t possibly give you every name of every guy who would be a good fit for Indy. It’s so deep that any of these guys who make “THE List” are pretty unlikely to actually be picked by the Colts. Not because they aren’t good fits, just because the pool to pull prospects from is so deep. If it isn’t one of these guys it will almost surely be a guy with good to great athletic testing, some position flexibility and a ton of starts in college. If you guy find 4-5 names of guys who fit that who aren’t in this article, your chance to hit will be just as good as mine.

The Some Names to Know

Cooper Beebe Kansas State – 9.28 RAS – back in 2019 I fell in love with K-State guard Dalton Risner’s game. I couldn’t get over the idea of adding him to the same offensive line as Quenton Nelson. When the Denver Broncos took him in the second round I was devastated. In that moment I told myself I would never fall in love with another K-State offensive lineman. And I won’t say that I’m in the same place with Beebe, but I really like watching this kid play. So even if Beebe didn’t have starts at LT, LG and RT and 49 starts overall to go with that nice RAS score, he would still make this section. Beebe will probably be drafted too early for the Colts to consider, but man, could you imagine him on the same line as Quenton Nelson?

Mason McCormick South Dakota State – RAS 9.96 – McCormick’s testing was out of this world at the combine and when paired with his football resume, it would be malpractice to leave him out of this article. McCormick was a three-year team captain for the back to back FCS national champions. After winning the national championship in 2022 McCormick (the starting left guard) was named the team’s season long co-offensive MVP (an award he shared with the team’s running back). He also started 57 consecutive games in college. You want a lunch-pail bringing, blue collar guy? Well he majored in construction management, too. Seemingly the only thing McCormick doesn’t have going for him is position flexibility, so the team will have to consider their projection of him at center or right guard. But given his athletic testing, you might assume he might be able to make the switch.

Tanor Bortolini Wisconsin – 9.77 RAS – Bortolini is very interesting for the Colts. In my opinion he’ll be drafted right on the cusp of where Indy will look to add to the offensive line, maybe even a bit early. With that said Bortolini’s athleticism, position flexibility (logging starts at LG, C, RG and TE(?!)) and polish coming from Wisconsin make him an interesting option early on day three. The only thing Bortolini doesn’t have going for him, his is level of experience at Wisconsin. He only started 28 games, but the team might be willing to overlook that for everything else there is to like. Maybe. Also, while it won’t move him up the board at all, I know that Chris Ballard would love to get another player from his Alma mater on the team.

Beaux Limmer Arkansas – 9.79 RAS – Limmer started 41 games at Arkansas at LG, C, and RG. The last SEC offensive lineman Chris Ballard took was seventh rounder Javon Patterson, but we don’t talk about him. The one before that, Braden Smith, turned the line into a formidable one and quicker than anyone thought. Limmer probably wouldn’t have that kind of impact in his rookie year but his experience coupled with the athleticism give him the sort of upside the Colts might like to draft and let him develop or at worst add valuable depth up front. Limmer is a good candidate for both.

Jarrett Kingston USC – 9.92 RAS – Welcome to the part of the OL section where I’m throwing up Hail Mary’s for guys who might fit. Kingston started 38 games in college, 26 with Washington State and 12 games with USC in 2023. He has started games at LT and LG and some have projected him to play center in the NFL. Kingston’s testing and position flexibility made him tough to keep out of the article but if the Colts take him it’s going to be late on day three.

Jake Kubas North Dakota State – 9.44 RAS – North Dakota State has long been an FCS powerhouse and at one point Kubas had started 41 consecutive games for the Bison. Beyond everything on the field Kubas seemingly made every single list for academic achievement, possible. Academic achievement doesn’t equate to high level guard play but it does show that Kubas takes things seriously and is willing to put in work off the field. He was a finalist for one of two FCS ADA postgraduate scholarships so he may have his eyes set on a different career path but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him picked late on day three and give the NFL a try first.

Cole Spencer Texas Tech – 9.43 RAS – Before transferring to Texas Tech Spencer made 44 starts (36 consecutively) for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. He missed 2022 due to injury and transferred to Tech where he missed all of October and November before coming back to play in the Independence Bowl against Cal. Spencer’s 2022 injury and forgettable 2023 at Tech have likely pushed him late into day three (if he’s selected at all). But during his 2021 season at Western Kentucky he was first team All-CUSA and was a standout player on the top ranked FBS offensive line (by PFF). His injuries are a concern, but the 36 consecutive starts have to mean something. Spencer is just as likely to be drafted by the Colts as anyone on this list but his background and the circumstances that got him where he is, lands him on this list.

I am cutting myself off at seven names, not because I couldn’t find more prospects, I absolutely could, it’s just that I’m more tired of writing about day three interior offensive line prospects, than you are reading about them.

We’re on to Special Teams.

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Special Teams

This is a fun section. Pretty much anything goes down here, the only thing I’m looking for are late-round prospects with elite athletic testing, or unique traits and abilities. Not much else matters.

Safety Mark Perry- TCU 9.60 RAS – Perry was snubbed by the combine and responded by having a great pro-day workout. He was a productive starter for the 2022 National Championship runners up and was invited to the East-West Shrine Bowl. Perry was a major special teams contributor and has a blocked kick on his resume. He also noted talking to the Colts multiple times at the Shrine Bowl and had a Top-30 visit in Indianapolis as well.

LB Brian Abraham- Albany 9.15 RAS – A graduate transfer from Yale, Abraham started his Ivy League career as a 6’4” cornerback. He moved inside to play linebacker and his highlight reel from Yale includes multiple special teams stops. I was THIS close to including him in the section on linebackers but Abraham is such a developmental longshot I thought he might fit better here. While his RAS is good and his 33 1/2” arms are impossible to teach, his 7.39 3-cone time might be reason for concern as both EJ Speed and Zaire Franklin (day three developments LB picks who initially saw time on special teams) had great agility times. It might be a small thing, but in my opinion it keeps him from being a slam dunk in the seventh round.

Safety Dominique Hampton- Washington 9.46 RAS – Sporting a 6’7” wingspan, the 6’2” safety won the 2018 PAC 12 Championship Special Teams player of the game award and was voted the Huskies 2021 special teams player of the year. He was awarded the Earle T. Glant Tough Husky Award after the 2023 season. I don’t believe Chris Ballard is going to make safety depth a priority but if he’s going to add anyone, Hampton’s resume makes him someone to keep an eye on.

RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.- Purdue 9.78 RAS – Tracy Jr. will probably end up being drafted before the Colts have a chance to select him, but I have to believe the sixth year senior has their attention. Tracy, an Indianapolis native, started his career at Iowa as a wide receiver before transferring to Purdue in 2022. He split time between WR and RB until 2023 and in 2023 he added kick returns to his resume where he racked up a 25.5 yard per return average, returning one for a touchdown. Tracy Jr. also has experience playing other roles on special teams as well, which is invaluable. Beyond that I see a role for Tracy on offense, fitting in where Isiah McKenzie never quite did, in 2023.

Safety Kendarin Ray- Tulsa 9.64 RAS – Almost unbelievably productive at Tulsa, Ray had 15 career 10+ tackle games, 13 PBU’s, 10.5 TFL’s, four forced fumbles, four fumble recoveries and two interceptions. He finished the 2023 season with 131 tackles. He started 38 games and has experience on teams. When you put all of that next to his freakish testing numbers and his nearly 33” arms, if the Colts are in the market for special teams on day three of the draft, you have to imagine Ray is being considered.

WR Lideatrick Griffin- Mississippi State 6.95 RAS – I’m taking a shot in the dark here with Griffin. His athletic testing is inconsistent with what the Colts have looked for, for years now. With that said a big chunk of his lower-than-what-they-typically-pick RAS is due to his 5’10” 181 pound frame. As a kick return specialist, I’m just not sure that’s important. With that said his agility times were just okay. What Griffin has going for him is a career 30.4 yards per kick return average complete with two returns for touchdown in his four seasons at Mississippi State. Griffin’s 4.43 second 40 time no doubt helped his return ability but there is plenty of speculation that given the new rules, pure speed will be less important than vision and the returners ability to see and react to the blocking setting up in front of him. So it could be Griffin’s experience won’t mean much to the Colts, but as it stands he is the most accomplished return man in the 2024 Draft and the new kick off rule means that the Colts have had a conversation about what Griffin could do in blue and white.

Safety Jordan Colbert- Rhode Island 9.77 RAS – Colbert is an interesting prospect for a lot of reasons. First he’s an insane athlete for his size and has 32”+ arms. Next he transferred to Rhode Island after graduating from Columbia. He was productive at each stop. It’s also noted he played on teams extensively in 2019. Players with his athletic profile could prove to be very valuable with the new kickoff rule. He’s big enough to take on the collisions that will happen while being fast and agile enough to chase down returners in the open field. Colbert is someone to watch.

Safety Ben Nikkel- Iowa State 9.66 RAS – Nikkel is on this list for two reasons: 1. his crazy athletic testing and 2. his status as a former walk-on turned scholarship athlete and 2023 team captain after fighting for years on special teams. Nikkel is similar to Colbert in size but has shorter arms. He did finally produce in his final year in college and he did so at a higher level than Colbert.

RB Isaac Guerendo- Louisville 9.90 RAS – Guerendo returned 32 kicks for 714 yards (22.3 yards per). He transferred to Louisville from Wisconsin after three years up north. During his time with the Badgers he never found much playing time. In 2021 he had 23 carries, in ‘22 he had 64 carries and 2023 came at Louisville and he finally got his shot with 132 carries for 810 yards and 11 touchdowns. But something that stands out about Guerendo (more than his 4.34 second 40 time at 220 pounds) is that even though he only carried the ball 23 time in 2021, he managed to turn one of those into an 82 yard run. It was just once, so what’s the big deal? Well in 2022 when he only carried the ball 64 times he had runs of 89, 54 and 30 yards. Then in 2023 when his opportunities expanded he had runs of 73, 39, 26 and 25 yards. He’s a big play machine who just couldn’t crack the lineup at Wisconsin. He might go before the Colts want to take a swing on teams but he’s an interesting prospect.

Honorable Mention:

Safety/Linebacker Isaiah Stalbird, South Dakota State and safety Emany Johnson, Nevada. Both would be solid additions to this section but neither had the resume to stand out in a unique way.

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THE List

Going into the draft the Indianapolis Colts have seven picks. As is tradition, I will give myself 14 chances, two per pick, to hit on a name. I’m not listing them in any order, I think that the 14th name on this list is just as likely to be drafted by the Colts as the first.

Without further ado, here it is, the list of 14 names that this article will forever be judged on:

1. Xavier Worthy WR Texas
2. Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU
3. Cam Hart CB Notre Dame
4. Edefuan Ulofoshio LB Washington
5. Dominique Hampton Safety Washington
6. Malik Nabers WR LSU
7. Adisa Isaac DE Penn State
8. Trevin Wallace LB Kentucky
9. Myles Cole DE Texas Tech
10. Decamerion Richardson CB Mississippi State
11. Jordan Magee LB Temple
12. Beaux Limmer C Arkansas
13. Mark Perry Safety TCU
14. Tyrone Tracey Jr. RB Purdue

THE Bonus List

1. Edgerrin Cooper LB Texas A&M
2. Max Melton CB Rutgers
3. Isaac Guerendo RB Louisville
4. Mason McCormick OL South Dakota State

What Is THE Bonus List?

This year I’m adding four more names to my list. Before you break out the pitchforks and claim that I’m cheating THE List, let me explain. Since 2017 Chris Ballard and his staff average 9.2 draft selections per year. His lowest total is seven (2021) his highest is 12 (2023). Therefore, I’m going to give myself two bonus picks (equaling four more names) to account for his average number of picks. But I’m giving myself some rules.

First, this list is ranked.

Second, if the Colts finish with 7 total picks, THE Bonus List won’t count at all. If they finish 8 picks, the last two names on THE Bonus List, don’t count. If Indy finishes with 9 or more, all of THE Bonus List counts.

Third, no I won’t be taking names off THE List if they finish with fewer than seven picks. THE List isn’t ranked.

There you have it, THE List is complete. 14 to 18 names to watch out for starting tomorrow night.

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Final Thoughts and Where I Will Get It Wrong

This year, more so than in the past, it felt very difficult to get a handle on what direction the Colts are going to go. I spent a lot of time at the very beginning of the article talking about need and about how Chris Ballard stacks his draft board and about how NFL team draft boards work, in general. The reason I did is because it informed the rest of the article.

I put a lot of eggs in the “Colts Want Speed at Receiver” basket and while I believe that’s true based on all of the evidence we’ve been given leading up to this point, it’s entirely possible I’ve read the situation all wrong. But if I’m right, if the Colts want that deep threat to pair with Anthony Richardson in Shane Steichen’s field stretching offense, then how they stack their board matters, a lot.

Logically the Colts need more help on defense than they do on offense. This is a very deep receiver class and finding defensive contributors will be more difficult than finding a contributing receiver this year. So again, logically, you would think that the Colts would want to make sure they came away from this draft with a difference maker on defense and doing it early would check off that box. After all, if they want to take a receiver to support Richardson, it’s a deep class, you can find one later. Unless you can’t. Unless the role you want to fill is very specific. Unless you only see four to five players across the entire draft that can fill that specific role in the way you want it filled. Then all of a sudden, that very deep receiver pool starts to look much more shallow.

And this is where I believe the 2024 Indianapolis Colts find themselves.

It’s what informed the entire article that turned into THE List. That idea, more than any other is how I got here and if I’m wrong about what the Colts want to add or my valuation of specific players that I believe fit what the Colts want at various positions, then, well all of this is likely to be wrong.

This feels like the biggest bet I’ve taken in the history of this series.

Or maybe the biggest bet was that we’re at the end of my 2024 Draft thesis and I’ve refused to type the name of the Georgia tight end that I’m pretty sure they’re not going to draft. At this point if I’m wrong about him, I want to make sure his name isn’t even in the article. I want to whiff completely.

If I’m wrong in other ways I feel like it will almost certainly be at linebacker. The draft data we have on the Colts drafting linebackers is pre Mega-RAS era. So the group feels tougher to pin down overall.

I might have misread what Ballard said about adding competition to his cornerbacks. It’s possible he meant he wants to add first round competition. It’s also possible he’ll look to late on day three. I feel that late day two, early day three is the sweet-spot for this year’s corners and the Ballard-Colts. But he could surprise us all and draft a scrappy 5’9” CB after trading up in the second round to do it.

Quarterbacks. The general consensus is that there will be four quarterbacks taken ahead of the 15th overall pick tomorrow night. But what if it’s more than that? What if five or six quarterbacks go before 15? That would mean the potential of a premiere player falling into the Colts’ lap would go up significantly. And if that happens, if there’s a player on the board that’s in a higher tier than everyone else on the Colts’ board, well, Ballard will probably take them just like he did with Dayo Odeyingbo. And that, dear reader, will royally screw up THE List. But this is another scenario where I would be happy to be wrong.

And one thing that has the potential to derail the article every year: trades. If Ballard moves up, this article is cooked. Moves down? It’s a toss up. Trades make everything less predictable.

This past Sunday, I told my wife I was getting close to finishing up this year’s draft article and she asked me if I thought I was going to “get many picks right this year”. I told her I didn’t feel good about it and that I might not hit on any.

“You said the same thing last year.” she said.

The NFL Draft has so many variables it’s impossible to account for them all. Even if my process was perfect (it’s not), I’ll never feel confident making a prediction about anything after the first overall pick. I’ve been really lucky the past two years. We’ll see how things go this year but it’s been a good run either way.

That’s all for the 2024 Chris Ballard Draft Leak Spectacular.

When Ballard leaks it again in 2025, we’ll do it all again.