Contract projections for the Packers’ upcoming free agents vary

No consensus is emerging on what Green Bay’s top four free agents will receive on the open market.

On Monday, the “legal tampering” portion of free agency will kick off, officially starting the spending frenzy that will commence at the beginning of the new league year. Unofficially, representation and front offices met in Indianapolis last week at the NFL scouting combine to start laying tracks for upcoming deals.

Still, there seems to be little consensus about what the Green Bay Packers’ 2024 crop of free agents will command on the open market. The team’s top players with expiring contracts are running back AJ Dillon, right guard Jon Runyan Jr., safety Darnell Savage and cornerback Keisean Nixon.

According to Spotrac, Dillon is expected to have a market value of around a one-year, $3.5 million contract. A to Z Sports has him in a similar range, projecting him to sign for a one-year, $3 million deal.

In press conferences, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has stated that he hopes that Dillon will return to the team in 2024. When rumors of Green Bay poking around on Jonathan Taylor broke ahead of cutdowns this summer, general manager Brian Gutekunst claimed that Dillon was going to remain on the Packers’ roster, no matter whether or not Taylor was added to the team.

Still, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Silverstein reported last week that Dillon isn’t “likely to re-sign” with the Packers next year. That seems odd, especially if his cost is really just around $3 million.

It’s difficult to find contract estimations for Runyan, but it does appear that the two sides have talked about a potential return. The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman reported last week that Runyan’s new agency, Rosenhaus Sports, met with Packers brass at the combine. Now, we just have to wait to see if Green Bay’s offer is the best that Runyan can receive on the open market.

Savage was a featured player in Dan Graziano’s ESPN report on underrated players in this free agency class. According to Graziano, Savage is expected to receive “a nice deal” when he hits the open market. Unfortunately for Savage, no position has seen more high-price players become cap casualties this offseason than safety — meaning that there’s a lot more supply at the position than expected. A to Z Sports projected Savage to sign a two-year, $9 million contract, which seems a little light to be considered “a nice deal.”

Last on our list is slotback and return man Keisean Nixon, who signed a one-year, $4 million deal last offseason. Not only did Nixon earn a second straight First-Team All-Pro spot as a kick returner, but he was able to play the second-most snaps of any NFL player in the slot in 2023 — his first year as a full-time defensive starter.

One would assume that after checking both boxes in 2023, Nixon’s price would only go up from the $4 million that he signed for last offseason. Still, Spotrac only gives the cornerback a market value of a one-year, $1.7 million deal, less than half of what he made in 2023. Meanwhile, A to Z Sports projects him to sign a two-year, $8 million contract, which is a wide gap between estimations.

So what do we know about the Packers’ upcoming free-agent class? Not much. Everyone has their take on individual players’ situations, but little consensus has emerged at this point. My advice? Ignore all of the smoke until the legal tampering period begins on Monday when we’ll finally get some concrete answers.