DeForest Buckner’s contract restructure might suggest Colts going ‘all-in’ for 2025

As it stands, the Colts’ cap maneuver added two voidable years to the end of DeForest Buckner’s freshly minted extension, providing financial flexibility for the near future.

The Indianapolis Colts recently extended DT DeForest Buckner to two more years, ensuring financial sustainability and continuity across the defensive front. What happened not even 48 hours afterward was nothing short of unprecedented for the Chris Ballard era.

Cap manipulation, something the New Orleans Saints have become the poster child for, has finally found its way to Indianapolis by way of a DeForest Buckner contract restructure. The restructure in question opened up approximately $14M in cap space for the 2024 calendar year, but will they turn around and spend that quick ‘profit?’ It’s a possibility they’ve created. However, I don’t necessarily believe it’s indicative of their plans for this upcoming season, but for 2025 and beyond.

As it stands, the cap maneuver added two voidable years to the end of Buckner’s freshly minted extension, providing financial flexibility for the near future. Although this gives the Colts ~$29M in cap space for the 2024 calendar year and points to a short-term deal with a veteran (DB?), I believe this move speaks to Chris Ballard’s overarching decision to prepare for the future as they’re betting on themselves now.

The Colts are in a position following the 2023 season where they certainly could convince themselves they are in win-now mode, but the Shane Steichen-Anthony Richardson era has merely begun. After a 4-year stretch that included 7 different QBs taking turns on the Circle City-sponsored carousel, a flurry of emotions followed the latter half of the 2024 season due to its hopeful savior going down for the season.

After Gardner Minshew took over for Richardson early in the season, doomsday was once again the talk of the town amongst Colts fans far and wide. After the Minshew-led Colts limped to Week 18, which included a division title and playoff berth on the line, and lost late, optimism shockingly reinserted itself. Now, with the rest of the AFC South seemingly going all-in, Colts fans are asking, why not us? I think the Buckner restructure provided clarity on this front.

Even before the cap maneuver at hand, I believed the Colts would remain at bay when it came to bringing in outside talent. Not to say I believe the team as it’s constructed is a guaranteed Super Bowl contender, but the vision to me was always to retain the important pieces that helped get the Minshew-led Colts back to where they were, let Anthony Richardson emerge with them in his 1st full year starting in the NFL, and then go all-in.

The Colts had roughly $72M in cap space heading into the 2024 offseason, 5th highest in the NFL, and with that, they have: re-signed WR Michael Pittman Jr., CB Kenny Moore II, S Julian Blackmon, DTs Grover Stewart & Tayven Bryan, DE Tyquan Lewis, P Rigoberto Sanchez while also extending DT DeForest Buckner and LB Zaire Franklin. All of those dollar signs and they still sit with nearly $30M in cap space.

Whether or not you agree that retaining that group of players is the right move, it’s how the Colts front office felt most comfortable operating in a time of uncertainty. The questions that remain are that of sustainable team success in all 3 phases but also, quite frankly most importantly, will Anthony Richardson stay healthy?

I’m sure that Chris Ballard, Jim Irsay, and the rest of the Colts organization are confident that he does come back fully healthy with more durability added to his plate, but maneuvering throughout free agency as if that is a foregone conclusion would be malpractice.

Capitalizing on Anthony Richardson’s rookie contract is the talk of the town, and although on paper that seems like a failsafe kind of plan to push all of your chips in, confirming that Richardson is the face of the franchise (mainly based on health) is the first step to going all-in. Not to suggest the Colts front office, the ones that drafted Richardson, don’t believe in him as their starting QB, but more so his durability needs to present itself before Ballard and Co. make any big contract decisions.

The Colts typically spend ~97% of their cap per year and although the recent unprecedented move that was DeForest Buckner’s contract restructure may scream otherwise, you have to consider the ~$12M that will be allocated for Indy’s 2024 Draft picks. Given they follow this same process, approximately $10M will be left on the table as they enter the 2024 season, therefore this theoretically gives the Colts around $7-8M in spending before the season begins.

This could very well point to the Colts front office being captivated with a prospect they feel will confidently need moving up in draft position to secure since the price for a top 10 pick is much more than that of mid-teens. The Colts have never moved up in the first round under GM Chris Ballard, and although a new era and 7 seasons in Indy under his belt could suggest otherwise, nothing of note other than the rest of the division spending money has pointed to changes being made.

I do, however, believe they end up spending that leftover cap on a veteran DB, maybe a Steven Nelson or possibly even Stephon Gilmore-level signing, but I don’t foresee that happening until after the NFL Draft. This way, the Colts don’t feel as shoehorned at a position as they may have before the draft and can piece together the remainder of the puzzle as they see fit. If they were to do so prior to draft festivities kicking off, they’d be adding unnecessary pressure to hit on a higher capital draft pick as opposed to banking on a low-risk, high-reward free agent who already has NFL experience.

So yes, I foresee a veteran signing soon but what I don’t expect is a blockbuster type of acquisition. If the Colts choose to get flashy in terms of player acquisition, I don’t see that happening until the trade deadline which means the Colts would have to come out of the gates at a dominant pace for Chris Ballard to pony up as such.

Even though I expect a modest free agent signing before the season, staying the course as explained provides flexibility for 2025 and beyond. This is mainly why I believe the contract restructure was more so to get back on track rather than making a big move now.

This wait-and-see methodology may rub some fans the wrong way given the Colts are entering their 8th season under GM Chris Ballard but based on the circumstances, awaiting results may be for just one more season. The unforeseen retirement in 2019 was beyond unprecedented, and although the trial and error band-aid process that seemingly followed did not make it easier, this is Ballard’s last hoorah, and if he didn’t believe that he wouldn’t be operating with such calculation.