Did Carter Warren prove he’s a capable backup for NY Jets?

Do the New York Jets have their swing tackle for 2024?

Did the New York Jets finally find an offensive line piece in the middle rounds?

The Jets’ line was a sieve for the entire 2023 season. They allowed 64 sacks, amazingly tied for 28th among NFL teams (showcasing how poor the pass-blocking was across the league). They started 13 different offensive line combinations. The team’s 28.3% rush success rate ranked 31st in the NFL, largely on the back of a line that could not open holes.

Still, many Jets fans were pleasantly surprised by the performance of Carter Warren. The fourth-round developmental rookie was thrust into the lineup due to the many injuries along the line. In total, he appeared in six games at tackle, starting one on the left side and four on the right. To the naked eye, he seemed to hold up fairly well, at least compared to Max Mitchell and Billy Turner.

Let’s take a closer look at his season, though. Was Warren really more impressive than expected? Is it reasonable to go into the 2024 season expecting him to be a legitimate starting backup in the NFL?

Pass-blocking

Even relative to his position, Warren’s pass-blocking numbers were poor. Per Pro Football Focus, out of 92 tackles with at least 150 pass-blocking snaps, he tied for 63rd with a 7.8% pressure rate. That number is the same as Mekhi Becton’s but better than Alijah Vera-Tucker‘s (8.5%), Mitchell’s (8.9%), and Turner’s (10.6%).

From that vantage point, Warren was successful — he was either the same as or better than every other player who lined up at tackle consistently for the Jets. (Duane Brown had a 13.2% pressure rate on 68 pass-blocking snaps.)

Additionally, Warren allowed the quarterback to be impacted at roughly the same rate as the Jets’ other tackles. He allowed five sacks and two quarterback hits out of his 20 pressures, a 35% impactful pressure rate that ranked 62nd. The Jets’ other tackles were clustered around there — Mitchell at 33.3%, Turner at 37.5%, and Becton at 40%. (Vera-Tucker was at 21.4%; that is generally one of his strengths.) The league average for tackles was 29.7%. Warren didn’t do a great job keeping his quarterback upright.

True pass sets

When Warren was forced to go head-to-head with edge rushers without the benefit of a quick release or a screen, he struggled mightily. In true pass sets, defined as a pass play with at least four pass rushers, a release time between two and four seconds, and no screen or play action, Warren tied for 73rd out of 92 tackles with a 13.9% pressure rate.

Warren was simply fortunate to face fewer true pass sets than the rest of the Jets tackles. The league average for true pass set frequency among those 92 qualified tackles was 46% of all pass-blocking snaps. Every other Jets tackle besides Warren was above 49%, but Warren was at just 44.6%.

When adjusting pressure rate for a league-average rate of true pass sets, Warren’s 7.9% rate was worse than Becton’s (7.5%) and Vera-Tucker’s (7.8%), though it was still better than Mitchell’s (8.6%) and Turner’s (9.4%).

Run-blocking

Warren was even worse as a run-blocker, which was considered his biggest weakness coming out of college. His 49.9 PFF run-blocking grade tied for 71st out of 82 tackles with at least 125 run-blocking snaps. His grade was significantly better as a zone-blocker (63.5) than as a gap-blocker (35.1). Considering that 32.9% of his run blocks were in a gap scheme, though, that totaled some poor run-blocking.

Penalties

Warren was called for two penalties on 401 blocking snaps, an average of 5.0 penalties per 1,000 snaps. That ranked 34th out of 91 tackles with at least 230 block snaps; the average was 7.2. That was better than his college average (5.85).

Warren’s penalty rate was far better than Becton’s (18.3) but not as good as Mitchell’s (2.1), Vera-Tucker’s (4.1), or Turner’s (4.8).

Backup

If Warren had qualified among starting tackles, these would be his percentile ranks.

• Pressure rate: 25th
• True pass set pressure rate: 12th
• Adjusted pressure rate: 25th
• Impactful pressure rate: 26th
• Run-blocking grade: 9th
• Zone-blocking grade: 40th
• Gap-blocking grade: 1st
• Snaps per penalty: 66th

In other words, Warren was a poor pass-blocker and a putrid run-blocker compared to starters. Generally, an ideal backup tackle could be a starter on a bad team, but that was not the case with Warren.

The best way to contextualize Warren’s performance is to compare it to other backup tackles who played roughly the same number of snaps. 25 tackles did not begin the season as starters on their team’s depth charts and wound up with at least 150 pass-blocking snaps.

Among those tackles, Warren ranked 12th in pressure rate, 14th in true pass set pressure rate, 13th in adjusted pressure rate, and 13th in impactful pressure rate. In other words, he was roughly average as a pass-blocker among backups who played significant snaps.

Among 27 non-starter tackles with at least 100 run-blocking snaps, Warren ranked 19th in run-blocking grade, 11th in zone-blocking grade, and 26th in run-blocking grade. Warren was an above-average zone-blocker but one of the worst gap-blockers among backups, leading to a below-average run-blocking grade.

Overall, these numbers would suggest that Warren is a viable backup — if he’s going to play the role he did this past season. With more snaps, he’d already fall into the category of a starter, in which case his numbers are unacceptable.

Film

Warren simply never seemed to be balanced and in control when he was pass-blocking. Defenders consistently got around him, whether or not they reached the quarterback before the ball was released. He coupled that with poor awareness, playing too high, and punching inaccurately.

Warren wears No. 67.

By contrast, I don’t think Warren looked quite as bad in the run game as his PFF grade would indicate. He certainly wasn’t good and his technique was poor, but he was not the primary reason that the Jets’ run-blocking was so inept. Warren struggled to get his hands on defenders in space and had his face crossed way too often; still, he also managed to get in the way enough to create some space for Breece Hall. He had some solid combo blocks and occasionally made a good block on the second level. That’s more than Mitchell can say.

Make no mistake: Warren was not good or even okay in the run game. He simply was not the worst backup tackle in the league as a run-blocker.

Swing tackle?

Even if the Jets did not have a two-year track record of massive offensive line issues, it would be a crucial error for them to trust Warren as their swing tackle heading into 2024. Given that history, it would be a repeat of Douglas’ 2023 mistakes. The Jets must sign a legitimate swing tackle in addition to two starting tackles.

Can Warren be their fourth tackle, though? He’s not ideal, but I don’t know if the Jets can find anyone better for a price they can afford. The likes of Larry Borom (Bears), James Hudson (Browns), Tyre Phillips (Giants), and Stone Forsythe (Seahawks) were among the backups who were statistically worse than Warren either as a run-blocker or pass-blocker (or both), and all of them played a high number of snaps for their teams. The Jets made mincemeat of the Eagles’ Jack Driscoll when he came into the game due to Lane Johnson’s injury.

Competent starting offensive line play is difficult to find in the NFL. There’s a reason that the average pressure rate for starting tackles rose from 5.5% in 2022 to 6.2% in 2023; blocking was significantly worse across the league. Still, with a quarterback entering his age-41 season and back-to-back years of crippling offensive line play, the Jets must invest in three tackles ahead of Warren on the depth chart.

If Warren would be the fourth tackle, especially if they sign a guard like James Hurst with significant tackle experience, the Jets can trust that they’ve done what’s necessary to improve their line. They can let Warren and Mitchell battle it out for the final spot, giving Warren a slight edge simply because he has one less year of bad tape.

Still, saying that Warren was good in 2023 is an extreme stretch. Like Mitchell in 2022, he may not have been a complete train wreck, but that does not make him competent. Warren has a lot of work to do before he can be anything more than the final tackle on a team strapped for cap space.

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