Does Atlanta’s silence mean they’re content with their defense or cooking up something?

The draft is likely to deliver starters for the Falcons on defense, but they could choose a splashy path or a quiet one before then.

The Atlanta Falcons signed several defenders to reserve/future contracts back in early January. In the nearly two-and-a-half months that have elapsed since that time, the team has brought aboard a defensive-minded head coach and entirely new staff, and have signed exactly two defenders. Those were both re-signings, with exclusive rights free agent Nate Landman and defensive lineman Kentavius Street back in Atlanta for 2024.

No one would deny that the Falcons have improved their offense, having swapped out the rolling 2022-2023 quarterback fiasco for proven high-end competence in Kirk Cousins and having added needed speed to the receiving corps. The pieces are there for that side of the ball to make a moderate-to-drastic leap, and that should propel the Falcons to greater success given that a struggling offense doomed them for long stretches in each of these past three seasons.

But what of the defense? That side of the ball has its core players set for 2024 between Grady Jarrett, A.J. Terrell, Jessie Bates, Kaden Elliss, and David Onyemata, but no one associated with the team or this fanbase would seriously suggest it is a finished product. There is no high-end edge rusher on the roster today, no proven high-end complement to Bates, no proven second starter at cornerback, and not enough proven high-quality depth anywhere but inside linebacker. There is work to be done here, something the front office and coaching staff are keenly aware of.

The question isn’t whether that work will happen—this is a year where the Falcons have a must-win air about them, given their stated desire to do so, Arthur Blank’s growing impatience with a winning drought, and the fanbase’s bone-deep weariness—but when it will happen and what form it will take. As I see it from our perch here in late March, there are two possible avenues the Falcons might take from here.

Possibility #1: The Falcons are weighing options

There has been plenty of talk of the Falcons trying to hammer out a deal with the Philadelphia Eagles for Haason Reddick, part of Terry’s Quest (TM) to find a consistent high-end edge rusher the likes of which Atlanta has been missing since John Abraham. Reddick was traded to the Jets yesterday, so if the Falcons were in on him, you’d expect them to start making moves shortly.

That trade front work would also explain why the Falcons have not been furiously freeing up cap space, because they would have liked to know if they’d need to do some landscaping to, say, Grady Jarrett and Jake Matthews’ contracts before they actually do so. Now that there’s clarity on the Reddick front, the team can then shake loose some cap space to either supplement that signing with some low-cost options in the open market or grab a couple of veteran edge rushers who can give you something to make up for the fact that your high-profile targets are now all off the board.

This would have been a holding pattern, essentially, and one that risks the Falcons losing players they may like to other teams while they wait. The relatively slow market and the fact that the team now knows what’s happening with Reddick should mean they still have plenty of moves to make if they were indeed negotiating, at least.

Possibility #2: The Falcons plan to upgrade the defense in the draft and over the summer

Or maybe they’re actually just biding their time and saving their cap space and their moves for the draft and the subsequent summer, intent on pulling together their missing pieces on defense via affordable signings and picks.

As more time goes by, I become more convinced this is the road the Falcons will travel. The lack of major moves to free up cap space suggest the team is not in a hurry to capitalize on a second or third wave of March or early April signings, and instead intend to add talent through the draft and then assess what needs they have remaining. It helps that this draft class is loaded with some really intriguing edge rushers and corners, two of the team’s self-identified major needs, and that a flooded safety market and defensive line free agency class still bearing plenty of useful players figure to endure until at least the immediate aftermath of the draft. The Falcons can see if they land their dream edge rusher and young starting cornerback, to say nothing of a useful safety, and then spin out a contract restructure or two to free up the necessary space to shop for remaining needs.

In some ways, this would be a reversal of where Falcons have wanted to be in years past, as Fontenot has repeatedly made it clear he likes to have needs addressed in some fashion ahead of the draft. It is worth noting that besides the persistent need at edge rusher, the Falcons do have options at every other position on defense, even if those options aren’t particularly proven or compelling. We may get a low-level signing or two in the weeks leading up to the draft if this is the road they plan to take—Fontenot rarely goes weeks without signing anyone, much less a month—but otherwise the team will count on a combination of high-upside draft picks and summer signings to stock the groceries on defense.

In either scenario, the draft is a critical piece of the puzzle for the Falcons on defense. The team’s past three first round picks have all gone to the offensive side of the ball, and over that same span, 12 of Atlanta’s 23 draft selections overall have landed on offense. That combined with a huge spending spree at the beginning of free agency should have stamped out all but relatively small needs on that side of the ball—a long-term developmental quarterback, perhaps, and a third running back, third tight end, and more depth on the interior—and put the Falcons in a position where any additions on offense would be nice luxuries or long-term multipliers.

On defense, though, the need for young talent is evident. The Falcons have aging starters on the interior of their defensive line, a dearth of proven starters on the back end outside of their standouts in A.J. Terrell and Jessie Bates, and the persistent lack of an elite edge rusher that has now stretched out beyond a decade. If it feels like the Falcons have been setting themselves up to use the draft to address some of those needs and to add talent for Raheem Morris and Jimmy Lake to work with, well, that’s because all signs point to it.

All that remains is to see which path the Falcons take until the draft and what follows, and now that Reddick is on the move, we’ll know for certain which one they select in the days ahead. I suspect we’ll see Atlanta lean on the draft and then find the cap space to make needed additions on defense. In the interim, don’t expect the Falcons to make much noise, if any.