Drafting a QB in the first round makes zero sense for the Rams

The Rams cannot afford to draft a quarterback in the first round.

The Rams have been heavily linked to quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix in this NFL Draft. The problem is that now is not the time for the Rams to draft a quarterback. Let me explain.

Michael Penix Jr. will be 24 years old this season and Bo Nix will be 24 years old this season. These are probably the only quarterbacks the Rams have a legitimate shot of drafting in the first round without a major trade up. Both will be 24 this year, Matthew Stafford is currently the best quarterback in the NFC conference and is under contract for another three years including this one. If you are doing the math, Penix and Nix would both be 27 years old when they finally took over for Stafford assuming Stafford played out the rest of his deal and retired right then and there.

Stafford could sign another contract as short as one more year following the current deal’s expiration. Regardless, the Rams would taking a quarterback too early if they took one high in 2024. The reason being is Stafford definitely has at the very least three more years in the tank. He may choose to retire earlier but he definitely isn’t dropping off and showed no signs of it in his playoff performance. While Stafford has been around the league for awhile, many tend to forget how young he was when he entered the NFL at age 21.

Plans can change and the Rams could choose to draft a quarterback and then get bittersweet news about Stafford retiring earlier which adds more value to their selection of said quarterback. However, plans can change in a different way with Stafford wanting to stay longer than the contracted three years. That’s not to mention the fact the team drafted Stetson Bennett in the fourth round of last year’s draft. They may like him enough to feel good about the backup quarterback spot enough long-term that going in this direction wouldn’t make sense.

Forgot about the long-term implications for a second and realize that the Rams currently have Bennett behind Stafford and just signed Jimmy Garoppolo. Sure, the Rams could trade away Garoppolo at his current price tag during the trade deadline if need be. However, with three quarterbacks already on the roster, now would not be the time to add a quarterback via the draft. To add onto that, now wouldn’t be the time to pass up taking an edge defender to draft a player you wouldn’t likely see in action for two or more years.

My biggest issue with the possibility of drafting a quarterback is not even the age, it’s that I don’t think there is anyone in this draft that will be available when the Rams pick worth drafting in the first round. It’s not like Penix and Nix are generational talents. Odds are that one or both have skillsets that will be replicated in some capacity in the 2025 and or 2026 NFL Draft when the Rams should probably explore this idea.

Not to mention, this team has told us with its actions they want to win a Super Bowl. They brought in veterans and key contributors like Tre’Davious White, Darious Williams, Kamren Curl and Jonah Jackson. Those weren’t moves of a team thinking just for the future. They are focused on winning a Super Bowl in the short window they have left with Matthew Stafford at the helm. I understand you have to prepare for the future but making your first round selection since 2016 and having it be a quarterback following an off-season where you failed to add a premiere pass rusher and lost the greatest defensive player to retirement in Aaron Donald, would be considered a big mistake.

The Rams are ahead of schedule judging by last year’s playoff appearance and excellent 14-pick draft class from last year as well. However, that doesn’t mean they can afford to just draft and stash a draft pick in the first round much less the first ever first round selection in Sean McVay’s career as the head coach. The obvious example is when the Packers took Jordan Love over getting Aaron Rodgers a weapon or protection on a Super Bowl aspiring roster. We’ll never know for sure if that cost them a potential Super Bowl or not but we do know that Love did not help them early in his career and that was a first round pick.

The Packers now appear to have a franchise quarterback in the investment they made in 2020 but they passed on Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr. to do it. That very year the Packers lost 31-26 in the NFC title game to the Buccaneers, 2021 they could only muster 10 points against the 49ers in the divisional round and 2022 they missed the playoffs. Just like that Rodgers and the Packers had their window of opportunity shut. Could they still win the big one with Jordan Love? Absolutely, but the Packers were in a great position and they won 13 games in two of the last three years with Rodgers at quarterback.

I bring this up to point to what could be the Rams fate if indeed they choose a quarterback at 19th-overall, trade up or even trade down and take one early. I’m not even sure a quarterback in the second round makes sense but I absolutely cannot sign off on a first round selection of one.

Imagine this scenario. One where the Rams choose not to trade up and snag a franchise left tackle, edge or interior defensive lineman. They choose a quarterback in Michael Penix Jr. over the likes of Amarius Mims, Jer’Zhan Newton, JC Latham, Graham Barton, Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell and of course the guy I want at 19th overall, Chop Robinson.

Not only does this not help the Rams in 2024 and potentially 2025. It also helps everyone else around the Rams. Everyone else is getting better while the Rams think to the future. The way this league works you cannot split your focus on the future and the present if you want to have the best results. It’s okay to have an eye into the future, do things for the sake of the future but making a first round selection which is one of the biggest decisions you can make and focusing on three-to-four years down the road is a mistake if you have Super Bowl aspirations.

I’m not knocking Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. I think both have a chance to be quality quarterbacks at the next level. I do not think either will ever be elite, I do not think either are going to be better than Stafford has been with the Rams and I do not think either are worth a mid-first round selection. With that said, I wouldn’t be totally against drafting them in maybe the second after a trade down or if either fell to the third. I just think it’s important to realize that neither of these guys are game-changing, you need to use this pick on a day one contributor and you simply cannot afford to pass up potential blue chip prospects in favor of drafting a position that’s not even close to a need right now.

The Rams will get their chance to draft their quarterback of the future. Last year felt too early but I would have understood it with Matthew Stafford’s status up in the air after he suffered a spinal cord injury. This year? Coming off the season he had? No, this is too early to do something like this. It will be exciting when the Rams do find their future signal-caller but 2024 is too early for that, at least in the first round anyway.