Eagles 2022 first-round pick tracker: Week 16 edition

Keeping an eye on the Colts and Dolphins.

The Philadelphia Eagles will potentially own three first-round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. Two picks are for certain: their own and the Miami Dolphins’ selection. The pick they’re owed from the Indianapolis Colts, however, is a conditional second-round pick that can be elevated to a first if Carson Wentz either 1) plays at least 75% of the snaps OR 2) he plays 70% AND makes the playoffs. We’re going to keep track of all of three of these picks on a weekly basis here at BGN.

COLTS PICK

CURRENTLY: No. 23 overall (pending playoff finish)

WEEK 16: The Colts are 9-6 after beating the suddenly struggling Arizona Cardinals. Carson Wentz made some timely throws when Indy needed it. More importantly to the Eagles, Wentz played 70 of the Colts’ 70 snaps in Week 16, putting him at 976/998 on the season. 97.8% means the Eagles are currently set to receive Indy’s first-round pick. With the Colts averaging 66.5 snaps per game, they’re on track for about 1,131 this season. Using that projection, Wentz has played about 86.3% of their total snaps. He’s well above the 75% threshold needed for Philly to get Indy’s first-round pick. Where the Eagles get that pick will be determined by how the Colts finish in the playoffs. Indy hasn’t officially clinched a playoff spot just yet but FiveThirtyEight gives them a 97% chance of making it.

WEEK 15: The Colts are 8-6 after pulling off a big win over the New England Patriots. They did this despite Carson Wentz completing just five of his 12 attempts for 57 yards and a 49.7 passer rating. More importantly to the Eagles, Wentz played 52 of the Colts’ 52 snaps in Week 15, putting him at 906/928 on the season. 97.6% means the Eagles are currently set to receive Indy’s first-round pick. With the Colts averaging 66.3 snaps per game, they’re on track for about 1,127 this season. Using that projection, Wentz has played about 80.4% of their total snaps. He’s comfortably above the 75% threshold. And even if he were to somehow dip behind the 75% (by missing the rest of the season and the Colts playing a lot of snaps without him), the Eagles still get the Colts’ first-round pick if they make the playoffs and Wentz is still above 70%. Indy currently has an 89% chance to make the postseason given FiveThirtyEight’s odds. TL;DR — The Eagles are getting a first-round pick from the Carson Wentz trade. It’s just a matter of where it’ll be. The Colts making the playoffs means the pick will be no more favorable than No. 19. It could be as low as No. 32 if Jonathan Taylor somehow carried them to a Super Bowl win. If they win only one playoff game, it’ll be between No. 25 through No. 28. That might be the most realistic landing range.

WEEK 14: The Colts were on their bye but they benefited from losses by Cincinnati, Las Vegas, and Buffalo. If the season ended today, Indy would be the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff picture. If the Colts do indeed make the playoffs, they’ll be picking No. 19 at the very highest. Their exact pick, of course, will depend on their playoff finish. The Eagles will hope Indy stumbles out of the postseason, starting with a loss to the New England Patriots on Saturday in Week 15. That’s the game where Carson Wentz will (very likely) finally cross over the 75% threshold.

WEEK 13: The Colts are 7-6 after stomping a really bad Houston Texans team. This should’ve been the game where Carson Wentz crossed the 75% threshold but the nature of the blowout prompted Indy to pull their starting quarterback late in the game. As a result, Wentz played 62 of the Colts’ 72 snaps in Week 13, putting him at 854/876 on the season. 97.5% means the Eagles are currently set to receive Indy’s first-round pick. With the Colts averaging 67.4 snaps per game, they’re on track for about 1,146 this season. Using that projection, Wentz has played about 74.52% of their snaps. The Colts (like the Eagles) are on their bye in Week 14 but they’ll return in Week 15 to play New England. Barring Wentz getting hurt very early in that game, he’ll officially cross the threshold in the Colts’ next game. The Eagles will hope that the Colts lost that one, by the way. Need Indy to miss the playoffs to ensure the pick they’ll receive is no lower than No. 18.

WEEK 12: The Colts are 6-6 are losing to the Buccaneers at home. Important loss in terms of the Eagles rooting for Indy to miss the playoffs. The Colts are currently the 10th seed in the AFC playoff picture. Carson Wentz turned the ball over three times on Sunday. More importantly, he didn’t miss any playing time. Wentz nicely played 69 of the Colts’ 69 snaps in Week 12, putting him at 792/804 on the season. 98.5% means the Eagles are currently set to receive Indy’s first-round pick. With the Colts averaging 67 snaps per game, they’re on track for 1,139 this season. Using that projection, Wentz has played about 70.6% of their snaps. This means the Eagles are already set to receive the Colts’ pick if they make the playoffs and Wentz doesn’t even hit the 75% mark. But he’s likely to cross that 75% threshold anyway if he plays the entirety of next week’s game in Houston.

WEEK 11: The Colts are 6-5 after beating the Bills in Buffalo. Pretty good win for Indy. Carson Wentz didn’t do much with his arm, completing just 55% of his attempts for 106 yards (5.3 average), 1 TD, 0 INT, and a 86.7 passer rating. Indy instead rode potential MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor, who scored FIVE touchdowns, to victory. As a result, the Colts are threatening to for a wild card spot, which isn’t good news for the Eagles. The Birds will hope that Indy falters down the stretch and falls out of the AFC playoff picture to make that first-round pick as favorable as possible. Wentz played 62 of the Colts’ 69 snaps in Week 11, putting him at 723/735 on the season. 98.4% means the Eagles are currently set to receive Indy’s first-round pick. (The Colts took Wentz out on their final drive as they were up by 26 points with about five minutes remaining.) With the Colts averaging 66.8 snaps per game, they’re on track for about 1,135 this season. Using that projection, Wentz has played about 63.7% of their snaps. At this rate, Wentz will meet the 75% threshold with two more games played (Week 13).

WEEK 10: The Colts are 5-5 after beating the Jaguars. Wentz didn’t look great against Jacksonville, logging just a 78.1 passer rating. Regardless, Wentz played all 64 of the Colts’ snaps in Week 10, putting him at 661/666 on the season. 99.2% means the Eagles are currently set to receive Indy’s first-round pick. With the Colts averaging 66.6 snaps per game, they’re on track for about 1,132 this season. Using that projection, Wentz has played 58.4% of their snaps. At this rate, Wentz will meet the 75% threshold with three more games played (Week 13). The Colts will certainly not be benching him before then since they’re in the hunt for a wild card spot in the AFC playoff picture. On that note, the Eagles will be rooting for Indy to lose in Buffalo next week to distance the Colts from making the postseason.

WEEK 9: The Colts are 4-5 after beating the Jets on Thursday Night Football. There’s an argument to be made an Indy win was preferable since it keeps them alive in the playoff picture and decreases the risk of Carson Wentz being benched. Wentz played all 62 of the Colts’ snaps in Week 9, putting him at 597/602 on the season. 99.2% means the Eagles are currently set to receive Indy’s first-round pick. With the Colts averaging 66.9 snaps per game, they’re on track for about 1,137 snaps this season. Using that projection, Wentz has played 52.9% of their snaps. At this rate, Wentz will meet the 75% threshold with four more games played (Week 13). With the Colts playing the Jags next, Indy could very well be 5-5. Wentz definitely isn’t going to get benched before Week 13 in that scenario.

WEEK 8: The Colts are 3-5 after losing to the Titans in overtime. The Eagles didn’t have a crystal clear rooting interest in this matchup but it’s probably preferable that Tennessee won to help keep Indy away from the AFC South lead. The Titans are 6-2 and now have the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker. The Colts loss in no small part to Carson Wentz’s recklessness. He threw a pick-six with his left-hand while under pressure before he gave away the game with an OT interception. Wentz played all 80 of the Colts’ snaps in Week 8, putting him at 535/540 on the season. 99.1% means the Eagles are currently set to receive Indy’s first-round pick. With the Colts averaging 67.5 snaps per game, they’re on track for about 1,147 snaps this season. Using that projection, Wentz has played 47.1% of their snaps. At this rate, Wentz will meet the 75% threshold with five more games played (Week 13). There’s been concern that the Colts might bench him to protect the pick but I wouldn’t worry about that if I were you. They have some winnable games coming up; three of their next five include tilts against NYJ, JAX, and HOU. They’re not going to be sitting him down before early December.

WEEK 7: The Colts are 3-4 after beating the 49ers on Sunday Night Football. The Eagles needed the Colts to win this game, especially with Tennessee unexpectedly pulling off back-to-back wins over Buffalo and Kansas City. Carson Wentz played all 68 of the Colts’ snaps in Week 7, putting him at 455/460 on the season 98.9% means the Eagles are currently set to receive Indy’s first-round pick. With the Colts averaging 65.7 snaps per game, they’re on track for about 1,117 snaps this season. Using that projection, Wentz has played 40.7% of their snaps. At this rate, Wentz will meet the 75% threshold with six more games played (Week 13).

WEEK 6: The Colts are 2-4 after blowing out the Texans. The Eagles needed Indy to win this one to keep them alive in the AFC South. Carson Wentz played all 48 of the Colts’ snaps in Week 6, putting him at 387/392 on the season. 98.7% means the Eagles are currently set to receive Indy’s first-round pick. The Colts even played Wentz on three snaps when they had a 28-point lead with just a few minutes to play in the fourth quarter. How generous of them. With the Colts averaging 65.3 snaps per game, they’re on track for about 1,110 snaps this season. Using that projection, Wentz has played 34.9% of their snaps. At this rate, Wentz will meet the 75% threshold with seven more games played. TL;DR – The Eagles are in a good spot to get Indy’s first-round pick.

WEEK 5: The Colts are 1-4 after losing to the Ravens on Monday Night Football. The game was a perfect result for the Eagles in that Carson Wentz played well and didn’t miss a snap in a close Indy loss. For those worrying about the Colts benching Wentz, they’re not going to sit him if he’s playing well. Besides, they have some winnable games coming up on their schedule while the Titans have some tougher ones coming up. It’s not like Tennessee is going to run away with the AFC South. Wentz played all 69 of the Colts’ snaps in Week 5, putting him at 339/344 on the season. 98.5% means the Eagles are currently set to receive Indy’s first-round pick. The Colts are currently at No. 6 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft order.

WEEK 4: The Colts are 1-3 after beating Miami on Sunday. Great outcome for the Eagles. Had Indy lost, the Colts would’ve been one step closer to eventually benching Wentz to protect their first-round pick. Instead, this Colts win — combined with a surprising Titans loss to the Jets — buys Wentz more time as Indy is very much alive in a really bad AFC South. Wentz played all 71 of the Colts’ snaps in Week 4, putting him at 270/275 on the season. 98.2% means the Eagles are currently set to receive Indy’s first-round pick. The Colts are currently at No. 8 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft order.

WEEK 3: The Colts are 0-3 after losing a key divisional game to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Unsurprisingly, Wentz struggled to play well on two injured ankles. He completed just 51.4% of his passes for 5.2 yards per attempt and a 66.7 passer rating. The good news for the Eagles is that Wentz played all 61 of the Colts’ snaps in Week 3, putting him at 199/204 on the season. 97.5% means the Eagles are currently set to receive Indy’s first-round pick. The Colts are currently at No. 3 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft order. If things continue to spiral at this rate, Indy will be incentivized to bench Wentz to protect their pick. The Eagles need the Colts to win just enough to stay alive in the AFC playoff picture. Eagles fans should be rooting for a Colts win over Miami next weekend.

WEEK 2: Exactly no one will be shocked to hear that Wentz is hurt again. The Colts’ starting quarterback tweaked his ankle during Indy’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams. How much time, if any, Wentz will miss currently remains to be seen as he awaits MRI results. Obviously not good for the Eagles if he ends up being out for an extended period. Wentz played 62 out of the Colts’ 67 snaps in Week 2, putting him at 138/143 snaps on the season. 96.5% means the Eagles are currently set to receive Indy’s first-round pick, which is located at No. 4 overall with the Colts dropping 0-2. But, again, Wentz might be in jeopardy of missing playing time. And the Colts have incentive to bench him to prevent the first-round pick from conveying if they lose a lot moving forward.

WEEK 1: The Carson Wentz era in Indy isn’t off to a great start. The Colts lost their opening game to the Seattle Seahawks, 28 to 16. There’s already a lot of excuse-making going around that Wentz didn’t have enough time to throw the ball. Which is weird because all we heard is how Wentz is going to absolutely thrive behind the Colts’ offensive line. And it’s not like Wentz was getting the ball out quick; he had the fifth slowest time-to-throw in Week 1 according to NFL Next Gen Stats. But, whatever. The important part is that Wentz played all 76 of the Colts’ offensive snaps, starting him out at 100%. This means the Colts currently owe their first-round pick to the Eagles. The pick is currently at No. 9 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft order, per Tankathon. More losses might only be on the way for the Colts with the next seven games coming up: vs. LAR, at TEN, at MIA, at BAL, vs. HOU, at SF, vs. TEN. How many do they win in that stretch?

DOLPHINS PICK

CURRENTLY: No. 14 overall

WEEK 16: The Dolphins will play the Saints on Monday Night Football. We’ll update this post after that game but we’ll note that action from elsewhere in the league bumped Miami down three spots from No. 11 to No. 14 in the draft order.

WEEK 15: The Dolphins are 7-7 after beating the Jets. I’m old enough to remember when it looked like Miami might be contenders the No. 1 pick … or at least a top five selection. Six straight wins later, here we are. Annoying development for the Eagles. The Dolphins’ final three games: at NO, at TEN, vs. NE. No gimmes there but I tend to think they’ll find at least one more win, likely keeping the pick outside of the top 10. It’s not impossible that the Dolphins could make the playoffs if they get some help. Certainly wouldn’t be a good outcome for the Birds.

WEEK 14: The Dolphins pick improved to No. 10 after being No. 12 last week. But it’s not likely to stay in the top 10 with Miami playing NYJ and New Orleans next. Those are two winnable games.

WEEK 13: The Dolphins are 6-7 after beating the Giants. That’s five wins in a row for the Fish. The Eagles can probably kiss a top 10 pick goodbye considering Miami has NYJ and New Orleans up next.

WEEK 12: The Dolphins are 5-7 after beating the Panthers. The Eagles are in serious jeopardy of not getting a top 10 selection from Miami. The Dolphins still have winnable games coming up: vs. NYG, vs NYJ, at NO. They also might be playing a New England team resting starters in Week 18.

WEEK 11: The Dolphins are 4-7 after beating the Jets. The Eagles probably aren’t getting a top five pick from Miami now. Heck, maybe not even a top 10 selection. The Dolphins still have some winnable games coming up. Their next four: vs. CAR, vs. NYG, vs. NYJ, at NO.

WEEK 10: The Dolphins are 3-7 after upsetting the Ravens on Thursday Night Football. Thanks for nothing, Baltimore. The bad news for the Eagles is that Miami has more winnable games coming up. The Dolphins’ next four: at NYJ, vs. CAR, vs. NYG, vs. NYJ. Decent chance they win at least two of those games. The Dolphins getting to five wins would certainly drop their pick owed to Philly out of the top five in the 2022 NFL Draft.

WEEK 9: The Dolphins are 2-7 after beating the Texans. Miami finally got to play a team that’s worse than them. To their credit, the Dolphins won with Jacoby Brissett unexpectedly starting because Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with a fractured finger that could also cause him to miss Thursday’s game against Baltimore. Miami is staring 2-8 in the face.

WEEK 8: The Dolphins are 1-7 after losing to the Bills. Miami kept the game closer than expected until Buffalo pulled away towards the end. The Dolphins actually fell in the draft order despite losing since Houston’s strength of schedule tiebreaker (.492) dropped below Miami’s (.500). The Eagles will be rooting for the Texans and Lions to somehow find some wins while the Dolphins hopefully continue to lose.

WEEK 7: The Dolphins are 1-6 after losing to the Falcons. Tua Tagovailoa left the field with the lead but Atlanta was ultimately able to position themselves for a game-winning field goal. NFL trade rumors indicate the Dolphins might trade for Deshaun Watson, so that’s something to watch. He’d obviously be an upgrade over Tua. Then again, Miami’s defense is still bad.

WEEK 6: The Dolphins are 1-5 after losing to a Jaguars team that hadn’t won a game since Week 1 of the 2020 season. If Miami can lose to Urban Meyer, they can lose to any team in the league. It’s not impossible that they send the No. 1 overall pick to the Eagles. Now, is that likely? Probably not. There are other bad teams and the Dolphins will play some of them (ATL, HOU, NYG, NYJ twice). But the Dolphins clearly aren’t good. At the very least, this pick will probably be in the top five.

WEEK 5: The Dolphins are 1-4 after getting blown out by the Buccaneers. Miami has been outscored 131 to 62 since Jacoby Brissett took over at quarterback. Yikes. The good news for the Dolphins (and bad news for the Eagles) is that they play the Jaguars this week. They also might be getting Tua Tagovailoa back. If Miami can’t beat Jacksonville, they’re serious contenders for No. 1 overall.

WEEK 4: Miami’s loss to the Colts dropped the Dolphins to 1-3. Great result for Philly. The Dolphins are currently picking at No. 4 in the 2022 NFL Draft order. There’s a decent chance the Fish drop to 1-4 with a road game against the Bucs up next. Things aren’t trending well for Miami. Of course, their outlook might change if the Dolphins pull the trigger on a Deshaun Watson trade. That’s certainly something to monitor ahead of the Nov. 2 trade deadline.

WEEK 3: It looked like the Raiders might blow it but Eagles fans will be happy to see that Las Vegas edged out the Dolphins in overtime to drop Miami to 1-2. Jacoby Brissett gave the Fish a good effort in relief of Tua Tagovailoa, who was recently placed on injured reserve, but he ultimately logged just 4.4 yards per attempt to go with a 74.8 passer rating. Brian Flores gets his players to play hard for him but the Dolphins are a flawed and hardly a lock to go to the playoffs. In more good news for the Eagles, the Bills won on Sunday, extending Buffalo’s lead in the AFC East. If the season ended today, which it doesn’t the Dolphins would be at No. 6 in the 2022 NFL Draft order.

WEEK 2: The Dolphins got absolutely destroyed by the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, 35 to 0. Tua Tagovailoa was carted off the field with a rib injury after just four pass attempts. The extent of Tua’s injury is currently unknown but it’s never a great to have your starting quarterback leave the game like that. Jacoby Brissett is a solid backup — in theory, at least — but he stunk in relief duty with just 4.2 yards per attempt and a 59.3 passer rating. Gross. The Dolphins’ outlook isn’t so rosy right now. Miami is currently 10th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft order, per Tankathon.

WEEK 1: The Dolphins narrowly defeated the New England Patriots on Sunday, 17 to 16. That’s annoying. Miami is currently the only team in the AFC East to win with the Buffalo Bills suffering a home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Jets losing to the Carolina Panthers. The Jets are likely going to finish last in their division but the Pats and/or Bills have a chance to finish ahead of the Dolphins. The Eagles will hope that happens to keep Miami’s pick as low as possible. It’s currently at No. 20 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft order, per Tankathon.

EAGLES PICK

CURRENTLY: No. 19 overall (pending playoff finish)

WEEK 16: The Eagles’ pick dropped from No. 12 to No. 19 since Philly is currently in the NFC playoff picture as the No. 7 seed.

WEEK 15: The Eagles’ pick improved from No. 11 to No. 10 ahead of their stupidly postponed game against Washington. A loss to the Football Team mightily damages Philly’s playoff odds. The silver lining would be that it improves their chances to get a top 10 pick with their own selection. We’ll update this post after Tuesday night’s game with the Eagles’ new position. UPDATE: The Eagles’ pick dropped to No. 12 with the win.

WEEK 14: The Eagles’ pick improved from No. 13 to No. 11 on the bye. But draft positioning is hardly the top priority right now with the Birds having a chance to make a push for a playoff spot.

WEEK 13: The 6-7 Eagles own the No. 13 pick after beating the Jets. Their pick will only continue to worsen as they get closer to making the playoffs, which is an outcome they’ll live with.

WEEK 12: The 5-7 Eagles own the No. 9 pick after losing to the Giants. The upside of their disappointing loss is they’re back in the top 10.

WEEK 11: The 5-6 Eagles still own the No. 11 pick after beating the Saints.

WEEK 10: The 4-6 Eagles own the No. 11 pick after beating the Broncos.

WEEK 9: The 3-6 Eagles own the No. 8 pick after losing a close one to the Chargers.

WEEK 8: The 3-5 Eagles own the No. 8 pick after stomping the Lions.

WEEK 7: The 2-5 Eagles own the No. 6 pick after losing to the Raiders. Not impossible to think the Birds could lose to the winless Lions and move further up the draft order. Might honestly be what’s best for the team in the long run.

WEEK 6: The 2-4 Eagles own the No. 8 pick after losing to the Buccaneers.

WEEK 5: The 2-3 Eagles own the the No. 10 pick after beating the Panthers.

WEEK 4: The 1-3 Eagles are currently at No. 9 in the 2022 NFL Draft order.

WEEK 3: TheEagles dropped to 1-2 with a loss to the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.

WEEK 2: The 1-1 Eagles are currently at No. 16 in the 2022 NFL Draft order, per Tankathon.

WEEK 1: The 1-0 Eagles are currently at No. 23 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft order, per Tankathon. We all know that’s inaccurate, though, since they’ll obviously be picking at No. 32 after going 20-0 en route to another Super Bowl win.