ESPN simulation predicts Panthers to land 2022 No. 1 overall pick

Geez. Five wins doesn’t get you what it used to anymore, huh?

. . . or does it?

Results for ESPN’s Football Power Index simulation of the entire 2021 NFL season were released on Monday morning. The exercise went through the whole 285-game schedule a total of 20,000 times, aiming to nail down the most accurate forecast of the season.

Unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately, the simulation has the Carolina Panthers finishing at 5-12. (Remember, there are 17 regular season games now.) That record was bad, or good enough to land them the first overall pick of the 2022 NFL draft.

ESPN sports analytics writer Seth Walder writes how the Panthers spoiled a hot 4-1 start to wind up at the very bottom of the league, with five other teams, that is.

“There was a moment, early in the season, when it looked like the Sam Darnold experiment was going to work out and that offensive coordinator Joe Brady had fixed the mess that Adam Gase (Darnold’s former coach in New York) had made,” he notes. “The Carolina Panthers opened the season 4-1, first beating Darnold’s old Jets team in Week 1 and then going on to earn wins against the Saints, Texans and Eagles (with a loss to the Cowboys). But those opponents were not that tough, and the 4-1 record was a mirage.”

Carolina has a very realistic chance at starting off 4-0, with the Jets, Saints, Texans and Cowboys—each with their respective early-season problems—all on deck. Walder, though, continues with the sharp regression of the sim.

“Coach Matt Rhule’s team would win just one more game the rest of the way (against the Falcons) and end the season at 5-12 and in a dramatic five-way tie for the NFL’s worst record. Carolina needed to lose in its final week to win the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker and earn the No. 1 overall pick — and it did, as the Bucs beat Carolina 33-7.”

Obviously, it’s far too early to start pinpointing which prospects would be their likely options in the event that they do earn themselves that honor. But, as it currently looks, 2022 is not a great year to be looking for a great quarterback in the draft.

Sup, Kayvon Thibodeaux?